Pedagogical forecasting operates with pedagogical processes, phenomena or is aimed at predicting the results of behavior, the development of the pedagogical system as a whole or its individual parts. Examples of pedagogical processes can be the processes of formation, development, formation, upbringing , training, self-improvement, self-education, professional training, etc. [1] . Pedagogical forecasting is closely related to pedagogical goal-setting, as it opens up the possibility of a reasonable diagnostic goal setting.
Content
- 1 Types of forecasting
- 2 Forecasting Methods
- 3 notes
- 4 Literature
Types of Forecasting
Search forecasting is directly aimed at determining the future state of an object, taking into account the logic of its development and the influence of external conditions. Normative forecasting, assuming the givenness of the transformation object, is associated with finding the optimal ways to achieve a given state.
Forecasting Methods
1. Modeling - building a model as a holistic structure, reflecting the system of interconnections of a real pedagogical phenomenon.
2. Put forward hypotheses - put forward assumptions, a number of provisions based on the analysis of the real situation.
3. Thought experiment - mental construction of the scheme of the experiment, its proposed stages and results in a specially created situation.
4. Extrapolation - transferring the solution of a particular pedagogical problem to the changed conditions in order to determine new ways to solve it.
Notes
- ↑ M.G. Kolyada, T.I. Bugaev. Pedagogical forecasting: theoretical and methodological aspect. - Knowledge. - 2014.
Literature
- Bestuzhev-Lada I.V. Social forecasting: a course of lectures / I.V. Bestuzhev-Lada, G.A. Namestnikova. - M.: Pedagogical Society of Russia, 2002. - 269 p.
- Kolyada M. G. Pedagogical forecasting in computer intelligent systems: Textbook [Text] / M. G. Kolyada, T. I. Bugaeva. - M.: Publishing House "Rusyns", 2015. - 380 p.
- Kolyada M. G. Pedagogical forecasting: theoretical and methodological aspect. Monograph [Text] / M. G. Kolyada, T. I. Bugaev. - Donetsk: Knowledge, 2014 .-- 268 p.
- Nikitina L. E. Pedagogical forecasting. Scientific and methodological manual / L. E. Nikitina, I. A. Lipsky, S. N. Mayorova-Scheglova, G. A. Namestnikova. - M: MPSI, 2009 .-- 288 p. - ISBN 9785977003308 .
- Forecasting Workbook [Text] / Editorial: I.V. Bestuzhev-Lada (ed.). - M.: Thought, 1982. - 430 p.