Tilting elections [1] ( stunning elections [2] - stunning elections ) is one of the rare peaceful scenarios [3] of democratizing authoritarian or hybrid regimes through partially free elections, in which the opposition either wins, [4] or forms a majority in parliament and begins to significantly influence the decision-making process, [5] however, such elections are also called “overturning elections” when the opposition received more votes than everyone expected [6] , such as, for example, the unexpected success of the People’s bloc during the 2008 Malaysian elections year [2] .
Michael McFaul uses the term "electoral revolution" to describe situations in which elections become a trigger for the collapse of undemocratic regimes. [one]
Boris Makarenko identifies three scenarios of the overturning elections: [4]
- as a result of the evolutionary deformation of the authoritarian regime towards democratization ;
- as an unsuccessful attempt to legitimize as a result of a poor assessment by the ruling elites of the mood of the electorate ;
- as a continuation of the democratization reforms initiated by the ruling elite itself, but under the pressure of society that went beyond what was planned.
Examples of such elections include:
- Legislative Election in Brazil in 1974, the Brazilian Democratic Movement defeated Ernest Geisel’s National Renewal Alliance having received 59% in the upper and 48% of the seats in the lower houses of parliament; [6]
- Legislative Election in India in 1977, Jayaprakash Narayan defeated Indira Gandhi ; [four]
- Presidential Election in the Philippines in 1986, Corazon Aquino defeated Ferdinand Marcos ; [four]
- Legislative Election in Poland in 1989, Lech Walesa defeated Wojciech Jaruzelski ; [four]
- Elections of People's Deputies of the USSR (1989) ; [four]
- The presidential election in Chile in 1989, Patricio Aylvin won, replacing Augusto Pinochet ; [four]
- General Election in Mexico in 2000, Vicente Fox defeated Francisco Labastide ; [four]
- Legislative Election in Venezuela in 2015, Juan GuaidĂł beat Nicolos Maduro ; [7] [5]
- General elections in Malaysia in 2018, Mahathir Mohamad won against Najib Razak ; [8]
- Presidential elections in Armenia in 2018, Nikola Pashinyan beat Serzh Sargsyan . [8]
Paul Pearson notes that in developed industrial democracies there is a tendency for candidates to change their rhetoric depending on the tactics and preferred audience of their opponents. He also notes that voters changing their behavior in such a way as not to “waste” their vote on a beloved, but impassable candidate, leads to unplanned heterogeneity in the election results, especially in conditions of pluralism . [2] Andreas Schedler in the footsteps of George Cebelis, argues that even if the results of the overturning elections are not recognized by the ruling elites, this through street protests leads to a regime change through "two-stage democratization of the elections." [2]
Notes
- ↑ 1 2 SHKEL, S.N. POLITICAL PARTIES UNDER THE CONDITIONS OF AN AUTHORITY REGIME ENVIRONMENT: EXPERIENCE OF POST-SOVIET KAZAKHSTAN (Russian) // Political Science: Journal / Meleshkina, E.Yu .. - RAS. INION, 2015. - No. 1 . - S. 96 .
- ↑ 1 2 3 4 Case, William. Contemporary Authoritarianism in Southeast Asia: Structures, Institutions and Agency . - Routledge, 2013 .-- P. 62.77-81. - ISBN 1317988329 .
- ↑ According to the data of Ph.D. HSE Aleksei Zakharov in a sample of 85 cases of autocrats leaving the government for 18 years or more who overturned elections along with refusal to participate in elections are found in only 12% of cases. Another 12% comes from voluntary abandonment. 39% - for care as a result of death or ill health, not related to the assassination attempt. 35% - for care as a result of a coup. And finally, 6% - on the departure of an autocrat as a result of attempt or murder.
- ↑ 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Mikhail Komin. You can tip over . When the electoral process did not go according to plan . New newspaper (August 10, 2016) . Date of treatment September 1, 2019.
- ↑ 1 2 Ekaterina Shulman . DISSENTING OPINION . Echo of Moscow (December 11, 2015). - “Tipping elections.” This is a phenomenon when opposition forces, usually after many years of participating in an election or boycotting an election, or participating in an election without a special result, suddenly get such an extraordinary result on them that allows them not to form a majority in the new parliament or to occupy the presidency, then at least greatly increase its share in the political system and, accordingly, already significantly influence the decision-making process. Such overturning elections have now taken place, for example, in Venezuela, a country about which many and not only me have said that its political regime is extremely similar to our own. ” Date of treatment September 2, 2019.
- ↑ 1 2 Alexander Kukolevsky, Alexander Filippov. Lies against tyranny 24. Kommersant Power Magazine No. 38 (September 26, 2011). Date of treatment September 2, 2019.
- ↑ Shulman, Catherine 10 hybrid modes . VENEZUELA, presidential republic . esquire (January 6, 2017) . Date of treatment September 1, 2019.
- ↑ 1 2 Mikhail Komin. Dictator versus dictatorship: how the “overturning elections” took place in Malaysia . rbc.ru (May 15, 2018). Date of treatment September 1, 2019.