Crimean consensus

It is noted that the effective actions of the armed forces and political strategists of Russia, which provided extremely bloodless and “soft” accession of the Crimea, largely supported the intra-elite consensus, as many representatives of the Russian bureaucracy and business took this initiative as “given”. Part of the ruling elite, including the " siloviki ", supported her sincerely, the other as a fact with which it is inappropriate to fight. Subsequently, the realization of the impossibility of reaching any agreement with the West on the Crimean issue and a broader geopolitical context led to the fact that even more pro-Western parts of the Russian elite moved to “defensive” positions ^[1] .

The support for the annexation of Crimea also embraced the creative elite of the country, much of which signed the Collective Appeal to the Russian public of Russian cultural figures in support of the President’s position on Ukraine and Crimea . It is noted that among those who supported the country's foreign policy course were representatives of both conditionally “patriotic” and “centrist”, as well as part of the “liberal” spectrum of the creative community ^[1] .

As of March 2017, 83–89% of Russians supported the annexation of the peninsula to Russia (depending on the wording of the question), 8–13% did not support it. And although the question of whether the annexation of the Crimea has brought more benefit or harm, gives a less unequivocal result (64% vs. 19), no more than 12% are ready to return the peninsula to Ukraine, and 83% are categorically opposed, and the sociologist Levada Center writes »Denis Volkov, even a part of those who consider the decision to annex Crimea to be erroneous oppose such a move. Some people motivate their opinion by saying that it would be dishonest towards Crimeans; “Blocks the possibility of any talk about the return of Crimea to Ukraine” and the fact that it would be a “loss of face”, “concession to external pressure”. The proportion of people who consider the annexation of the Crimea as a “problem”, “disgrace”, “failure of foreign policy”, “error”, depending on the wording of the questions is from 5 to 20% of the population. This share, according to the sociologist, is relatively higher among supporters of the opposition, residents of Moscow, as well as people focused on expanding contacts with the outside world, and even in these groups, opponents of the annexation of the Crimea are a minority. They usually justify their position by the fact that the annexation of Crimea led to an increase in budget expenditures and deterioration of relations with “fraternal Ukraine”, neighboring countries ^[3] and developed countries, “the transformation of Russia into a rogue state” ^[4] .

According to sociology, the preservation of the "Crimean consensus" is observed in Russian society in 2019 ^[2] . In particular, a study of the Public Opinion Foundation showed that approximately 79% of Russians surveyed support the annexation of the Crimea, and only 6% say that this accession was unnecessary, 15% find it difficult to answer ^[5] .

Director of the Center for Political Analysis Pavel Danilin believes that the Crimean consensus is closely related to the public demand for the values ​​of sovereignty, consolidation of the nation and nationalization of elites ^[2] . Dmitry Kulikov , a political scientist and expert at the State Duma Committee on CIS Affairs and Relations with Compatriots, describes the Crimean consensus as “a unique socio-cultural situation for Russia” and believes that the Crimean consensus is only “strengthened as a result of public reflection and expansion of understanding of the geopolitical and historical situation " ^[6] .

Carnegie Moscow Center analyst Konstantin Haase in 2018 declared the Crimean consensus dead ^[7] .

• Shadow of the Past: Guidance of the Russian Policy (English) . The Moscow Times (17 March 2017). The appeal date is April 8, 2019.