Demoscopy

The main methods for collecting the necessary information that are used in demoscopy are questionnaires and interviews of a very different nature, in other words, a sociological study is conducted . Experts may also sometimes include the theory, methodology, and practice of collecting information, including demographic information, in the concept of "demoscopy." Public polls are actively practiced and special attention is paid to the factors of forming his opinion ^[1] . Also, work is actively being conducted directly with the information most obtained during the study (survey). To obtain the best result, its reliability and relevance is important. It is impossible to know social reality only through observation. It is necessary to use various tools, such as polls, which help determine the desires of the audience and understand their attitude to a particular problem, an exciting issue. The demoscopy method also helps companies to formulate the best strategy for a specific target audience .

The very definition of "Demoscopy" was first introduced by the American sociologist S. Dodd in 1946 ^[2] . Later, a German researcher, Professor Elizabeth Noel-Neumann , the creator of one of the largest research institutes in Germany - the Institute of Demoscopy (Allensbach Institute for the Study of Public Opinion), introduced it into general use. The Allensbach Institute was created in 1947 and is still popular among German residents and among people living in other countries. The scope of the Institute is research on the orders of political parties ^[3] , for example, forecasts of election results. Since 1950, the Institute has been fulfilling orders from political parties and predicting the outcome of the elections to the Bundestag . The forecasts presented by the institute are published in well-known newspapers during the election campaigns ^[4] . The Institute of Demoscopy is not only engaged in forecasting elections, but also carries out orders for government agencies - the Ministry of Health, the Ministry of Justice, etc. A significant part of all work is done for newspapers and magazines. About 20% of research at the institute is carried out by order of entrepreneurs. Among them are: the study of the capacity of the commodity market, investment prospects, consumer surveys in the interests of trading companies, tests to determine the marketing prospects of various goods, etc. About 10% of the studies are aimed at “studying opinions”, for example, the attitude of the population to various bills, slogans, packaging of goods, tariff changes, etc. ^[5]

The main provisions of demoscopy are described in the book by E. Noel-Neumann "Mass polls" (1978). The book contains recommendations on compiling questionnaires , the impact of the wording and order of questions on respondents' answers. The first edition of the book "Mass polls" was published in 1963. In this regard, some examples cited by the author may look outdated, but despite this, the method of demoscopy is very popular ^[6] .

In foreign countries, the survey method and the questionnaire method are widespread and are very popular in a wide variety of areas. But there are many opponents of these methods. This can be explained by the fact that people do not have enough knowledge about the basic principles of applied sociology . E. Noel-Neumann in his works refutes the prevailing misconceptions and prejudices regarding methods of sociology ^[7] .

One of these misconceptions is the distrust of the information provided by sociologists. Many doubt that the answers of a small number of respondents can confidently judge the opinion of the whole population. According to E. Noel-Neumann, representative data can be obtained by interviewing 900 men and 1100 women. But, as is known from statistics, which is based on the law of large numbers , this statement can indeed be considered true. In the book "Mass polls" you can also find a refutation of the statements that the laws of statistics established on inanimate objects cannot be applied to people. E. Noel-Neumann, in turn, opposes doubts about the reliability of the information obtained through surveys on the basis that people's opinions can change. The reliability of the population survey data is always confirmed by specific examples ^[8] .

• Encyclopedic Demographic Dictionary / Ch. ed. D.I. Valentei . - M .: Soviet Encyclopedia , 1985 .-- 608 p. - 75,000 copies.
• E. Noel-Neumann . Mass polls: introduction to the methodology of demoscopy = UMFRAGEN IN DER MASSENGESELLSCHAFT EINFUHRUNG IN DIE METHODEN DER DEMOSKOPIE / per. from English S. N. MASUROVA. - Progress , 1978.- 384 p. - 14,000 copies.