Keynes, John Maynard

Personal and family life

Keynes was born in Cambridge in the family of a well-known economist, professor of economics, logic and philosophy at the University of Cambridge , John Neville Keynes , and Florence Ada Brown, a successful writer who was also involved in social activities, she was the first woman mayor Cambridge ^[5] . His younger brother, Geoffrey Keynes (1887-1982), was a surgeon and a bibliophile , his younger sister Margaret (1890-1974) was married to Nobel laureate physiologist Archibald Hill . The economist's niece, Polly Hill, is also a well-known economist. Maynard Keynes grew up in a university teaching environment; on his fifth birthday, great-grandmother Jane Elizabeth Ford wrote to him:

You are expected to grow very smart, because you live in Cambridge all the time.

Working at a library in Eton at the age of sixteen, Keynes built the Keynes family tree, starting with his first ancestor in England, who arrived with William the Conqueror - William de Caan, vassal of Duke Robert Morten, brother of Duke William (William) of Normandy ^[6] .

In the summer of 1909, Maynard Keynes moved into an apartment of several rooms located on the gateway of an old guardhouse between King Lane and Webbcourt in Cambridge. Keynes occupied this room until his death. The standards of conduct at King's College were becoming less and less shy. In a letter to Duncan Grant on December 5, 1909, Maynard, after the banquet, wrote: “What will become of us with our reputations, only heaven knows ... We have never behaved like this before - and I wonder if this will ever happen again ...” Undoubtedly Keynes exaggerated for the needs of Duncan, who was in London , but Royal College historian Patrick Wilkinson noted that in 1908, a college visitor was amazed at how “openly male couples flaunted their mutual affection.” On May 7, 1909, Maynard Keynes and Duncan went on a two-week vacation to Versailles . This caused the first crisis in their relationship. Duncan wrote to Henry James: “I said I no longer love him,” Duncan refused to be locked in a single-connection cage ^[7] . Keynes continued to help Grant financially throughout his life.

Born into the professor’s family, Maynard Keynes was a product of Cambridge civilization in its prime. Keynes's circle included not only philosophers - George Edward Moore , Bertrand Russell , Ludwig Wittgenstein , but also such an exotic creation of Cambridge as the Bloomsbury group . It was a circle of writers and artists with whom Keynes had a close friendship. He was surrounded by an atmosphere of fermentation of minds and the awakening of sexuality, characteristic of the transition from Victorian England to the era of King Edward VII ^[8] .

In October 1918, Keynes met the Russian ballerina of Diaghilev's entreprise Lydia Lopukhova in the first post-war seasons in London; in 1921, Keynes fell in love with Lydia when she danced in the Diaghilev production of Tchaikovsky ’s Sleeping Beauty at the London Alhambra Theater . On August 4, 1925, they got married as soon as Lydia received a divorce from her first Russian husband, Randolpho Barroca ^[9] . In the same year, J. M. Keynes made his first trip to the USSR to celebrate the 200th anniversary of the Academy of Sciences , he also became a ballet patron and even composed ballet libretto . In addition, J.M. Keynes was in the USSR back in 1928 and 1936 with private visits. Keynes's marriage was apparently happy, although due to medical problems the couple could not have children (in 1927, Lydia had a miscarriage). Lydia survived Keynes and died in 1981 ^[9] .

Keynes was very tall, about 198 cm. Keynes was a successful investor and managed to make a good fortune. After the collapse of the stock market in 1929, Keynes was on the verge of bankruptcy , but soon managed to restore his wealth.

He was fond of collecting books and managed to acquire many of Isaac Newton’s original works (Keynes called him the Last Alchemist) and dedicated the lecture “Newton, the Man” ^[10] . In the introduction to the “Lectures on Physics” by Hideki Yukawa Keynes's biographical book about Newton is also mentioned, but this refers to the printed edition of this lecture or a more extensive work, it is not clear from the context .

At the time of Keynes's death in 1946, his investment portfolio was estimated at £ 400 thousand (today it is 11.2 million), and the cost of a collection of books and art objects was £ 80 thousand (2.2 million) ^[11] .

He was interested in literature and drama, provided financial assistance to the Cambridge Art Theater, which allowed this theater to become, although only for a while, the most significant British theater located outside of London.

Education

Keynes studied at Eton , at King’s College in Cambridge from 1902 to 1906, and studied at the university with Alfred Marshall , who had a high opinion of the student’s abilities. Ethics professor Henry Sidgwick taught Keynes the humanities. Keynes was interested in politics besides economics, and won the chair of the President of the Cambridge Union as a student in 1905 ^[12] . In Cambridge, Keynes took an active part in the work of the scientific circle, which was led by the popular philosopher George Moore, was a member of the Apostles philosophical club, where he made acquaintance with many of his future friends, who later became members of the Bloomsbury Circle of Intellectuals, created in 1905-1906. . For example, the members of this circle were the philosopher Bertrand Russell , the literary critic and publisher Clive Bell and his wife Vanessa , the writer Leonard Woolf and his wife, the writer Virginia Woolf , and the writer Lytton Strachey .

Career

From 1906 to 1914, Keynes worked in the Department of Indian Affairs, in the Royal Commission on Indian Finance and Currency. During this period, he writes his first book - Money Circulation and Finances of India ( 1913 ), as well as a dissertation on probabilities, the main results of which were published in 1921 in his Treatise on Probability. After defending his dissertation in 1908, Keynes began teaching at King's College, where he returned at the invitation of A. Marshall until 1915.

In 1911, Keynes became editor of The Economic Journal and remained in this post until 1945. In the period from 1915 to 1919, Keynes served in the Ministry of Finance . In 1919, as a representative of the Ministry of Finance, Keynes participated in the Paris Peace Talks and proposed his own plan for the post-war recovery of the European economy, which was not adopted, but served as the basis for the Economic Consequences of the World. In this work, he, in particular, objected to the economic oppression of Germany : the imposition of huge indemnities , which ultimately, according to Keynes, could lead (and, as is known, led) to reinforce revanchist sentiments. On the contrary, Keynes proposed a number of measures to restore the German economy, realizing that the country is one of the most important links in the global economic system. Protesting against the decisions made, he left the conference, resigning his powers. And in the same year he wrote the book “ Economic Consequences of the Versailles Peace Treaty ”, which brought him worldwide fame.

In 1919, Keynes returned to Cambridge, but spent most of his time in London, serving on the board of several financial companies, the editorial board of several magazines (he owned the weekly Nation, and the editor (from 1911 to 1945) of The Economic Journal , advising government.

In the 1920s, Keynes dealt with the problems of the future of the world economy and finance. The crisis of 1921 and the ensuing depression drew the scientist's attention to the problem of price stability and the level of production and employment. In 1923, Keynes published the “Money Reform Treaty,” which analyzes the causes and consequences of changes in the value of money, while paying attention to such important points as the effect of inflation on income distribution, the role of expectations, the relationship between expectations in price changes and interest rates, etc. e. The correct monetary policy, according to Keynes, should be based on the priority of maintaining the stability of domestic prices, and not aim to maintain an overvalued currency, as the Velikob government did at that time Ethan. Keynes criticizes the policies in his pamphlet, The Economic Consequences of Mr. Churchill (1925).

In the second half of the 1920s, Keynes devoted himself to the Treatise on Money ( 1930 ), where he continues to research issues related to exchange rates and the gold standard . In this work, for the first time, the idea appears that there is no automatic balancing between expected savings and expected investments, that is, their equality at the full employment level.

In the late 1920s and early 1930s, the US economy was hit by a deep crisis - the Great Depression , which affected not only the American economy - European countries were also subject to crisis, and in Europe this crisis started even earlier than in the USA. The leaders and economists of the leading countries of the world were frantically looking for ways out of the crisis.

As a predictor, Keynes was enormously unlucky. Two weeks before the start of the Great Depression, he predicts that the global economy has entered a steady growth trend and that there will never be recessions ^[13] . As you know, the Great Depression was predicted by Friedrich Hayek and Ludwig Mises one month before it began ^[14] . Not understanding the essence of economic cycles, Keynes loses all his savings during a depression.

At times, Keynes showed interest in Soviet Russia and the economic experiment conducted there at that time. There were personal reasons for this, since his wife was a Russian-born ballerina. In September 1925, Keynes visited Moscow and Leningrad ^[15] . The result was the publication of the article “A Short View on Russia”, in which he defined communist ideology as a form of religion:

Leninism is a strange combination of two things that Europeans have for centuries placed in different parts of their souls - religion and business. Such a fact is shocking, because we have before us a completely new type of religion that makes us arrogant, and because a business that obeys such a religion, instead of developing according to its own independent laws; - becomes extremely ineffective.

- ^{[16] [17]}

It is known that Keynes was largely sympathetic to the ongoing economic reforms in the Soviet Union at that time.

At times, it is felt that it is here - in spite of poverty, stupidity and oppression - the Laboratory of Life. It is here that various chemical elements bind into new combinations, here they emit an unpleasant odor and even explode. But something in the event of a successful outcome may take place. ^[eighteen]

It should not be forgotten that Keynes was largely a critic of capitalism . Although his conclusions here did not go as far as K. Marx had , they suggested a serious adjustment of the capitalist system based on the premise that there is no self-regulation mechanism in a market economy ^[19] .

Keynes was appointed member of the Royal Commission on Finance and Industry and the Economic Advisory Council . In February 1936, the scientist publishes his main work, The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money , in which, for example, he introduces the concept of an accumulation multiplier (Keynes's multiplier) , and also formulates his “ basic psychological law .” After the "General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money", Keynes affirms his status as a leader in the economic science and economic policy of his time.

In 1940, Keynes became a member of the Ministry of Finance's Military Advisory Committee, then an adviser to the minister. In the same year he published the work "How to pay for the war?". The plan outlined in it implies the forced deposit of all funds that people have left after paying taxes and exceeding a certain level to special accounts at the Postal Savings Bank with their subsequent unblocking. Such a plan made it possible to solve two problems at once: to weaken demand inflation and reduce the post-war recession.

In 1942, Keynes became a member of the House of Lords ^[20] . He was president of the Econometric Society (1944-1945).

During the Second World War, Keynes devoted himself to the issues of international finance and the post-war structure of the global financial system. He took part in the development of the concept of the Bretton Woods system , and in 1945 he negotiated US loans to the United Kingdom. Keynes has the idea of ​​creating a system for regulating exchange rates, which would be combined with the principle of their de facto stability in the long run. His plan included the creation of a Clearing Union, the mechanism of which would allow countries with passive balance of payments to apply to the reserves accumulated by other countries.

In March 1946, Keynes participated in the opening of the International Monetary Fund .

Died April 21, 1946 from myocardial infarction . Buried in Westminster .

J. M. Keynes is a central figure among economists of the 20th century, since it was he who created the foundations of modern macroeconomic theory , capable of serving as the basis for fiscal and monetary policy ^[21] .

You can understand Keynes's attitude to economic science from an obituary to the death of his teacher Alfred Marshall, in fact, this is his scientific program and the ideal of a scientist and economist:

A great economist must possess a rare combination of talents ... He must be - to a certain extent - a mathematician, historian, statesman and philosopher. He must think in symbols and have a good command of the word. He must understand the particular in the context of the general and be able with one thought to easily touch the abstract and the concrete. He must study the present in the light of the past - for the sake of the future. Nothing in human nature and the institutions of society should escape his attention. He should be both purposeful and turned to the sky, like a true artist, but at the same time firmly on his feet and be practical, as a politician ^[22] .

The first work of J. M. Keynes was the article "Recent Developments in India," published in March 1909 in the Economic Journal. In it, the author tried to establish the relationship between the price movement in India and the influx and outflow of gold. The collection of statistics brought the young scientist, as he wrote, into a state of delight. In November 1911, J. M Keynes was appointed editor of the Economic Journal, which became important for his economic education ^[23] .

After leaving the Treasury in 1919, J. M. Keynes at King's College, Cambridge, began in October to give an autumn lecture course, “The Economic Aspects of a Peace Treaty,” while a book of the same title was being compiled. These lectures made a strong impression on students and made J. M. Keynes a hero of the left, although he never belonged to them. Nevertheless, this predetermined the possibilities of his theoretical concepts to be a pillar of the ideas of the Labor Party, and at the same time the approach of J. M. Keynes did not imply a denial of the concepts of conservatives. “The economic aspects of the peace treaty” created Keynes's reputation as the most radical among young economists ^[24] .

Кейнс участвовал в дискуссиях в Клубе политической экономии или Клубе Кейнса, которым он руководил с 1909 г. В Клуб Кейнса приходили студенты, аспиранты, друзья учёного, старшими членами Клуба Кейнса были многие ставшие потом известными экономисты. Центральной темой дискуссий в клубе были вопросы государственной политики, полемика была направлена против ошибок чиновников. В 1923 г. выходит работа Дж. М. Кейнса «Трактат о денежной реформе», в которой автор не соглашается с политикой Английского банка . С 1925 г., когда Великобритания перешла к золотому стандарту, Дж. М. Кейнс приходит к мысли о том, что ошибки политиков — результат ошибочных теоретических представлений. После этого Кейнс всё больше времени уделяет теоретическим вопросам, в 1930 г. выходит его работа «Трактат о деньгах» ^[25] .

Большинство учёных-экономистов относят выход в свет в 1936 г. книги Дж. М.Кейнса « Общая теория занятости, процента и денег » к наиболее важным событиям в истории экономической мысли Запада в межвоенный период ^[26] . В «Общей теории» впервые последовательно подвергнуты критике идеи Адама Смита . Дж. М. Кейнс в «Общей теории» рассматривает нестабильность рыночной капиталистической экономики и впервые в экономической науке доказывает необходимость государственного вмешательства в экономику. Это породило значительное количество научных работ, что сделало учёного одним из самых известных экономистов. Дж. М. Кейнс в своей работе акцентирует внимание на анализе соотношения инвестиций и сбережений с исследованием макроэкономической категории — эффективный спрос (центральная категория кейнсианства ) ^[26] . В послевоенный период работа Дж. М. Кейнса даёт толчок к исследованиям в области теории экономического роста и циклического развития.

Кейнс завоевал репутацию талантливого участника различного рода дебатов, и Фридрих фон Хайек несколько раз отказывался обсуждать с ним вопросы экономики. Хайек в своё время выступал с резкой критикой идей Кейнса, в спорах между ними нашло отражение противостояние англосаксонской и австрийской традиции в экономической теории. После выхода «Трактата о деньгах» (1930) Хайек обвинил Кейнса в отсутствии у него теории капитала и процента и в неправильном диагнозе причин кризисов. Надо сказать, что в некоторой степени Кейнс был вынужден признать справедливость упрёков .

Широко известна также дискуссия (часто называется Дискуссия о методе ) Кейнса с будущим лауреатом нобелевской премии по экономике Яном Тинбергеном , введшим регрессионные методы в экономическую науку. Эта дискуссия началась статьёй Кейнса «Метод профессора Тинбергена» ( англ. Professor Tinbergen's Method ) в журнале « Economic Journal » и продолжалась в цикле статей разных авторов (между прочим, в ней принял участие и молодой Милтон Фридман ). Однако, многие считают, что более интересное изложение этой дискуссии (в силу большей откровенности) было в частной переписке между Кейнсом и Тинбергеном, в настоящее время опубликованной в Кембриджском издании сочинений Кейнса. Смысл дискуссии заключался в обсуждении философии и методологии эконометрики, а также экономики вообще. В своих письмах Кейнс рассматривает экономику не столько как «науку о мышлении в терминах моделей», сколько как «искусство выбора соответствующих моделей» (моделей, соответствующих постоянно меняющемуся миру). Эта дискуссия стала во многом определяющей для развития эконометрики .

Кейнс стремился излагать важнейшие мысли — каковые он считал «ясными и, казалось, самоочевидными» — доступным языком, позволявшим говорить «просто о сложном». Он полагал, что экономическая наука должна быть интуитивной, то есть описывать окружающий мир языком понятным большинству людей. Кейнс был против излишней её математизации, мешавшей восприятию экономики неспециалистами.

Кейнс был одновременно философом, экономистом и исследователем нравов. Он не переставал задаваться вопросом о конечных целях экономической деятельности. Кейнс считал, что тяга к богатству — «любовь к деньгам», по его выражению, — оправдана лишь постольку, поскольку она позволяет «жить хорошо». А «жить хорошо» — это, по Кейнсу, не значит «жить богато», это значит «жить праведно». Для Кейнса единственным оправданием экономической активности человека является стремление к нравственному совершенствованию мира. Кейнс прогнозировал, что по мере роста производительности труда продолжительность рабочего дня будет сокращаться, что создаст условия, в которых жизнь людей станет «разумной, приятной и достойной». В этом и заключается ответ Кейнса на вопрос о том, зачем нужна экономическая наука.

• Денежное обращение и финансы в Индии (Indian Currency and Finance, 1913)
• Экономические последствия мира (The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1919)
• Трактат о вероятности (A Treatise on Probability, 1921)
• Трактат о денежной реформе (A Tract on Monetary Reform, 1923)
• Конец laissez-faire (The end of laissez-faire, 1926)
• Трактат о деньгах (A Treatise on Money, 1931)
• Общая теория занятости, процента и денег (The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, 1936)
• Общая теория занятости (The general theory of employment, 1937)
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• Скидельски Р. Джон Мейнард Кейнс. 1883-1946. Экономист, философ, государственный деятель. В 2-х книгах = John Maynard Keynes 1883 - 1946. Economist, Philosopher, Statesman.- Macmillan. 2003 / Пер. с англ. Демида Васильева. — М. : Московская школа политических исследований, 2005. — Т. 2. — 804 с. — (Культура Политика Философия). — ISBN 5-93895-070-8 .
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сокр.версия: John Maynard Keynes 1883—1946: Economist, Philosopher, Statesman. — New York: Macmillan, 2004. — 800 pp.

• Stewart М. Keynes and after. — Harmondsworth, 1967.
• История экономических учений: учебное пособие / Под ред. В. Автономова , О. Ананьина, Н. Макашевой. — М.: ИНФРА-М, 2004.

• Джон Мейнард Кейнс // Economicus.ru
• Кейнс, Джон Мейнард // Большая советская энциклопедия : в 66 т. (65 т. и 1 доп.) / гл. ed. О. Ю. Шмидт . — М. : Советская энциклопедия , 1926—1947.
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• Джон Мейнард Кейнс