Delphi Method

The essence of this method is that through a series of sequential actions - surveys, interviews, brainstorming - to achieve maximum consensus in determining the right solution. Analysis using the Delphic method is carried out in several stages, the results are processed by statistical methods.

The basic principle of the method is that a number of independent experts (often unrelated and unaware of each other) better evaluate and predict the result than a structured group (collective) of individuals. It allows avoiding open clashes between carriers of opposing positions, as it eliminates direct contact between experts and, therefore, group influence arising from joint work and consisting in adapting to the majority opinion, makes it possible to conduct the survey extraterritorially, without gathering experts in one place (for example via email).

Subjects:

• groups of researchers, each of which answers individually in writing.
• organizational group - brings together the opinions of experts.

Preliminary:

• selection of a group of experts - the more the better - up to 20.

Main:

• statement of the problem - the question is sent to experts and it is proposed to divide it into sub-questions. The organization group selects the most common. A general questionnaire appears.
• This questionnaire is sent to experts. They are asked if something else can be added; is there enough information; Is there any additional information on the issue? As a result, we get 20 answers with additional aspects and information. Based on this, the following questionnaire is compiled.
• The improved questionnaire is again sent to experts, who now need to give their own solution, as well as consider the most extreme points of view expressed by other experts. Experts should evaluate the problem by the following aspects: efficiency, provision with resources, to what extent corresponds to the initial statement of the problem. Thus, the prevailing judgments of experts are revealed, their points of view are drawn together. All experts are introduced to the arguments of those whose judgments are strongly out of the general channel. After that, all experts can change their minds, and the procedure is repeated.
• The operations are repeated until a consensus has been reached between the experts or a lack of consensus has been established on the issue. Studying the causes of discrepancies in expert assessments reveals previously undetected aspects of the problem and fixes attention on the likely consequences of the development of the analyzed problem or situation. In accordance with this, a final assessment and practical recommendations are developed. Usually, three stages are carried out, but if opinions differ greatly, then more.

Analytical:

• checking the consistency of expert opinions, analysis of the findings and development of final recommendations.

• the defenselessness of an expert in front of an organizational group is too much authority.
• the majority opinion is not necessarily correct; the creative solution - minorities, the most effective solutions - are discarded.
• analysis is a lot of time. At least for each stage - a day. Not suitable for operational analysis.
• the conformism of experts is growing - the desire to get into the majority.
• the ability to manipulate experts by an organizational group.

Counteraction:

• selection of an organizational group from various structures, scientific and social schools,
• drive the same problem through another group,
• the most original solutions can be included as additions.

This method is not operational, but strategic planning.

It is used in strategic planning in:

• technique
• futurology
• business.

• the time depends on the means of communication of the experts.
• respondents should be able to articulate their thoughts well, since this method is based on obtaining information in writing, otherwise processing is difficult
• respondents must have a high level of motivation, as there is no reward for filling out questionnaires.

• Delphic Method
• V.V. Kovalev, O.N. Volkova. Analysis of the economic activity of the enterprise Methods of expert assessments