Depopulation

The population decline over time in the census region, known as depopulation, can be due to several reasons: low birth rates (along with limited immigration), mass emigration , illness, hunger and war. History is full of examples of large-scale depopulations. Until the 20th century , population decline was mainly due to disease, hunger and / or emigration. The emergence of Old World diseases in America, the tsetse fly invasion of the Waterberch area in South Africa, and the Great Irish Famine all caused a significant and lasting decline in population.

Black death was an epidemic disaster ^[1] , but it turned out to be a one-time emergency event. Immediately after the end of the pandemic, a demographic explosion occurred in Europe ^[2] , the population of Europe began to grow again, and this growth, despite subsequent epidemics, continued uninterruptedly for several centuries, until the demographic transition ^[3] .

Nowadays, hunger, epidemics and wars can lead to depopulation, but even despite the high mortality from disease and hunger, in most countries of Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America, the population is growing rapidly due to high birth rates. In Europe, on the contrary, the population is declining, even with low mortality and a constant influx of migrants - due to aging and low birth rates.

Sometimes the decline in population is caused by genocide or massacres, for example, in the 1970s , the population of Cambodia fell significantly due to the large-scale execution under the leadership of the Khmer Rouge . However most demographers believe that the reasons for the depopulation are the change in values ​​and the transformation of family institutions, it is well known that the number of children is affected by the level of education of parents and their attitude to the career: in two-career families, the number of children will always be less than in families where only one parent works ^[4] .

The term “depopulation” is usually defined as a condition in which a country's population has declined too much to support the current economic system. An example of the use of the economic term in developed countries is the change in social security schemes, when a declining young able-bodied generation is not able to support a growing older population.

However, according to the Russian demographer A. B. Sinelnikov , population decline is not always denoted by the term depopulation : in his opinion, it is not depopulation of the population decline during wars as a result of migration processes. In this case, the term should be used only when the population is reduced as a result of natural decline and the excess of mortality over fertility ^[5] .

Depopulation was observed in ancient Greece during the time of Polybius and in ancient Italy. But in antiquity, depopulation affected only certain countries and some provinces of the Roman Empire ^[6] .

The earliest description of depopulation was left by the ancient Greek historian Polybius:

“People ... do not want to marry, and if they get married, they don’t want to feed the children who have survived, except one or two of the very many, in this way to leave them rich and bring up in luxury”

- Polybius. General History in Forty Books, Vol. Ill, M, 1899, Prince. XXVII, 9, p. 299-300

“In our time, the infertility of women and the general decline of the population befell all of Hellas, so the cities became depopulated, crop failures started, although we had neither continuous wars nor the horrors of the plague”

- Polybius (200-120 BC)

In Miletus III – I centuries. BC e. 1.36 children per married man. In addition to Ancient Greece and Apennine, population decline and abandoned land in Antiquity were observed in Gaul, Britain and Egypt ^[7] .

In the Middle Ages, depopulation was observed due to high mortality. In European cities from 1,100 to 1,500 years, mortality was higher than the birth rate and the urban population was supported by constant migration from rural areas ^[8] . In Spanish cities from 1510 to 1840 and from 1850 to 1859, in general, a negative natural increase was observed (the number of births was less than the number of deaths), which was compensated by external migration ^[9] on the summation of the indicators of Madrid , Barcelona , Granada , Valladolid , Seville and Cadiz ^. . Among families of medieval citizens with a high birth rate, no more than 2-3 children remained alive. In most families, 1-2 children survived in infancy and childhood. In Arles in 1340-1440 the average number of children in a family was no more than two, and from the end of the XIV century the number of children in a family began to decrease. In Nuremberg in the middle of the 15th century, on average, less than two children grew up in one family - 1.64; in Freiburg - 1.74 ^[10] .

From 1348 to 1450, population decline was observed in England mainly due to periodic plague epidemics ^[11] .

In eastern Japan , during the eighteenth century, each next generation was smaller than the previous one ( net reproduction rate below 1) ^[12] .

In the period from 1764 to 1860, a natural population decline was observed in St. Petersburg , which was offset by a massive influx of workers to earn money ^[13] .

According to Dyson, before 1850, the birth rate in cities in Sweden was lower than the death rate and negative natural growth was observed in cities ^[14] .

In modern times, a new type of depopulation appeared, associated with low birth rates. According to some data, even in the first decades of the 19th century, in some agricultural regions of Hungary inhabited by ethnic Serbs and Germans, the “one-child system” became widespread, when parents were limited to one or at best two surviving children ^[15] , and in 1845 the chief medical doctor of Baranya County in the south of the Transdanubian region wrote “in most Hungarian villages in the county, young wives consider it a shame to bear in the first four or even ten years of their marriage, and even the most healthy and strong women have no more than two children” ^[16] .

For the first time, France has faced depopulation due to the low birth rate at the country level in recent times in Europe ^[17] . As early as the middle of the 19th century, a decrease in population was observed in a number of departments in France (from 1846 to 1872, the population was decreasing in 44 of 89 departments ^[18] ). In general, for France, depopulation was first observed in 1890, when mortality exceeded the birth rate by 39 thousand people. After this year, depopulation in France began to be observed more and more often ^[19] : before World War I, depopulation in France was observed in 1890–1892, 1895, 1900, 1907 and 1911. In 1935, population decline was already observed in two European countries: France and Austria ^[20] .

For the first time, the term depopulation appeared in the book by Arsene Dumont, “Depopulation and Civilization,” and then it was transferred to the works of Jacques Bertillon “Le problème de la dépopulation” of 1897 and “La dépopulation de la France, ses conséquences, ses causes” 1911 ^[21] .

In 1926, the net reproduction rate (ratio of births and deaths per generation) was 0.89 in Germany, 0.86 in England, and 0.93 on average for countries in Western and Northern Europe. In Austria in 1928 the net reproduction rate was 0.782, in Sweden in 1930 it was 0.858. And although due to the age structure, the current number of births exceeded the current number of deaths, in these countries depopulation was already established in essence then ^[6] .

During the era of the great geographical discoveries and the development of new continents, conquistadors inadvertently brought there infectious diseases such as smallpox , to which the indigenous tribes did not have immunity , which led, in particular, to the mass extinction of the Indian peoples of South and Central America . The remnants of the indigenous population, then mixed with immigrants from Europe , formed the basis of the modern population of these continents, tens of times higher than its previous population, and is currently actively migrating , in particular, to the countries of North America .

Currently, migration flows have spread from Africa across all continents previously previously unknown deadly infections such as AIDS .

Throughout the history of depopulation of entire continents, enemy invasions, mass migrations and epidemics have caused, such as:

• Justinian's plague in Europe and the Mediterranean ^[22] ;
• The discovery and settlement by Europeans of America and Australia ^[23] .

Some examples of depopulation of large regions as a result of wars:

• Mongol invasion in China , Russia and Iran ;
• Tamerlane's military campaigns in the Middle and Middle East ;
• Thirty Years War in Europe;

Famine also often led to depopulation, whether as a result of wars and invasions, changes in climatic conditions, human incompetence, etc.

The term “depopulation” was introduced by French demographers, who were concerned about the decline in the birth rate in France during the 19th century , when half of the departments showed a population decline. In the 30s and 40s of the 20th century , a demographic policy began to be carried out in many countries of Europe in connection with the falling birth rate, and an influx of migrants from Third World countries, which in most cases could only slow down the pace of this decline.

In the second half of the 20th century, depopulation affected the countries of Eastern and Central Europe (former socialist countries) - this situation is called in literature the “ Slavic (or Russian) cross ” ^[24] .

Currently, depopulation is observed in 20 countries of the world, this is especially pronounced in a number of CIS countries , and, according to UN experts, it will cover all developed countries of the world, except the USA, where the white population is declining due to low birth rates, and the US population as a whole growing only due to the influx of migrants, mainly from Mexico and other Latin American countries. ^[25] .

Demographer V. M. Medkov in his article “Expected future or romantic dreams?” Writes that “humanity has already entered the period of depopulation” and that this fact poses a threat to the actual existence of the human race ^[26] .

Emigration and low birth rates , as well as high mortality rates in the countries of the former Soviet Union, caused a serious regional population decline. However, the government can affect the rate of population decline. Among such measures are a policy of stimulating the birth rate, subsidies, propaganda of a complete family (that is, with children) through the media, immigration, solving health problems, etc. This is the case in Russia and Armenia , as well as in many countries of Western Europe , which used immigration and other policies as a means to stop or slow down population decline. Therefore, although in a very long term the population will decline, for a short time it is possible to weaken the negative trend or even reverse it. A striking example of a better demographic situation is Ireland .

However, in the long run, the problem has no solution. According to demographer A. B. Sinelnikov ^[5] , the problem of natural attrition cannot be solved only by reducing mortality, since in order to ensure easy replacement of generations, the number of children in a family should be on average 2.1 (today in Russia 1.8). Thus, even with the highest life expectancy in Russia, the population will depopulate.

Moreover, almost all developed countries have a total fertility rate below the threshold of simple replacement of generations ^[27] , so measures to improve living standards and improve social security can only slow down depopulation, but not stop it.

According to the lower version of the UN forecast made in 2008, by 2040 all countries of the world will become sparsely populated, which is fraught with total depopulation of the entire world population ^[28] .

Table of countries with depopulation (see also: List of countries by natural population growth ) :

A number of countries are experiencing long-term population decline today: Russia , Bulgaria , Estonia , Latvia , Ukraine , Belarus , Georgia , Lithuania , Hungary , Japan , Slovenia , Moldova , Armenia , Bosnia , Croatia , Germany , and now Italy and Cuba . Currently, they continue to grow slowly, but soon, perhaps, Greece , Spain , Uruguay , Denmark , Austria and Finland will join the above-mentioned. ^{[29] The} USA, Canada and Australia are not countries with depopulation, but there the population grows only due to the constant influx of migrants from Third World countries.

However, Kazakhstan announced the achievement of population growth, and in 2009 over 16 million people were registered there according to the census ^[30] .

Many countries in Western Europe (and the EU as a whole) only thanks to immigrants avoid population decline. The total population of the European continent (including Russia and other countries outside the EU) peaked in 2000 and has been decreasing since 2004, while the population of other continents continues to grow, especially due to the population of China, India, Southeast Asia , Black Africa and the Middle East. ^[29]

Epidemics also play a role in population decline, but the main causes of death in the Third World are war, hunger and malaria, and available data show that in Asia, Africa and Latin America the birth rate is so high that population and overpopulation trends. ^[31]

Russia belongs to countries where the population is depopulating. In Russia, there are regions where the population depopulates faster than the population of the state as a whole (coefficient 1.8). For example, in the Krasnoyarsk Territory with a birth rate of 1.1. The critical situation in the Pskov region. ^[32]

And here are the regions where the population is growing rapidly: Dagestan , Moscow , Chechnya (coefficient of birth 2.89). It is necessary to take into account where the population grows due to the high birth rate of the local population, and where due to migration, then Moscow will not get on the general list with Dagestan and Chechnya.

But in general, the population of Russia fell until the beginning of the 2010s. Immigration only compensated 44% of the population decline. And although, in 2010-2018. there was an increase in the population of Russia, according to some estimates, the economic crisis that began at the end of 2014 in Russia could lead to a new wave of depopulation ^[33] . But, nevertheless, as of January 2018, the population growth in Russia continues ^[34] . And in the first 8 months of 2018, a decrease in the population of Russia of 84.7 thousand people is already observed. [1] In addition, in October 2018, the forecast of the Federal State Statistics Service was changed and now, in the average version of the forecast, a population decline is predicted at the end of 2018 to 83.9 thousand people. [2]

Depopulation changes not only the population, but also the numerical proportions between different elements of the demographic structure. The governments of depopulating countries, due to the impossibility of a rapid increase in the birth rate, are forced to compensate for the population decline by an influx from outside, that is, to regulate the scope and pace of immigration . Depopulation can lead to the collapse of the pension system , which, in turn, will create acute political and economic problems.

Belarus

The population of Belarus is steadily decreasing, mainly due to emigration and low birth rates. The nation is aging. But there are no significant fluctuations ^[35] .

Germany

Aging and low birth rates in Germany may soon radically change the country's population. Perhaps in 2030 only 60-70 million people will live in Germany, instead of the current 82 million. Moreover, the downward trend in the population of Germany will continue after 2030.

Canada

Canada does not apply to countries with depopulation. The country's population is constantly growing, but only due to immigration. Very low fertility, aging population. The natural decline in the Canadian Native population is statistically offset by the influx of migrants. Canada has undergone significant changes in its ethnic composition compared to the 20th century. The proportion of people from Asia and Latin America is constantly growing.

Norway

Norway is close to depopulation and is approaching it. Fertility there is low, but a significant proportion of Norwegians have not yet entered retirement age. The population is still slowly growing, but at the same time there is a rapid aging of the population, especially of the native Norwegians, accompanied by a powerful stream of immigration from Africa and the Muslim world.

Russia

In the course of the steady natural decline in the population, which lasted more than 20 years, Russia lost, according to various estimates, more than 12 million people (according to ^[36] 9 million). According to some estimates, the economic crisis that began in Russia in late 2014 could lead to a new wave of depopulation ^[33] . Nevertheless, since 2010, there has been a general increase in the population of Russia (due to migration), and since 2013, a natural increase (due to the excess of the number of births over the number of deaths).

With reference to the head of the Institute of Demography, Migration and Regional Development, they suggested that by 2050 the population of the Russian Federation will be reduced to 80 million ^[37] .

According to the expert, the statistics on the population in the Russian Federation do not correctly reflect the real situation, embellishing it; and the preservation of the main reason for the depopulation - the "disregard for human life" (the construction of St. Petersburg and the White Sea-Baltic Canal "on the bones", millions of dead during the wars and during the " experiments " in peacetime) directly threatens the demographic future of Russia ^{[36 ]} . The author called for a radical change in the (actual) state ideology, and to take measures to make the country more suitable for living.

He also suggested:

• Clarify the concept of the demographic policy of the Russian Federation (taking into account the undesirability of distorting the ethnic composition of the population, and the fact that the migration resources of the CIS countries have decreased);
• To mobilize the efforts of the regions so that they focus on the largest projected population;
• Use more accurate objective indicators of demographic processes for their correct assessment in different regions (including not only mortality and birth rates, but also the total birth rate and life expectancy ; standardize indicators to take into account the age and gender of the region’s inhabitants);
• Assess the performance of leaders of constituent entities of the Russian Federation, taking into account indicators - the total fertility rate and life expectancy; match the actual state of affairs with the planned values; regularly report to the president on the state of affairs in this area in the regions;
• To develop an adequate and long-term concept of the migration policy of the Russian Federation so that the migration policy does not contradict the national interests of the Russian Federation (as it was in the recent past);
• Revise the program for promoting the voluntary resettlement of compatriots ; in particular in terms of resettlement and housing facilities. For example, during the active implementation of the program (2008-2012), with its help, 114.4 thousand people came to the Russian Federation, and 1.3 million arrived on their own over the same period of time;
• Take measures to improve the skills of regional specialists dealing with demographic issues;
• To begin to carry out adequate propaganda and educational work in the media, schools, registry offices, etc., because at the time of writing the book, the federal authorities did not do this at all; and the efforts of the authorities in certain regions were not effective enough;
• To clean up the statistics of the population, which is extremely inaccurate. For example, the population of Moscow in 2002 "increased" for this reason by 16%. More objective information about the situation will help to plan activities to improve the situation more competently and adequately;
• To develop programs of measures of the federal government aimed at reducing mortality, increasing fertility, and regulating migration - so as to increase the effectiveness of demographic policy, complementing the measures already taken ( maternity capital , land allotment, etc.). Activities should be planned differentiated by region - so that the highest costs are incurred by entities with the worst performance; take measures to provide housing for young families (soft targeted loans, etc.);
• When raising the retirement age, take into account childlessness; and to restore the tax on childlessness (using the funds received from the tax to encourage those who adopt orphans ); change the system of levying child support and tighten measures against those who evade payment (since up to a quarter of children are born out of wedlock ); and other measures.

According to the 2010 UN forecast, the population of the Russian Federation will be 126 million by 2050, according to the forecast of Moscow State University in 2001, this figure will be 117 million, and according to Rybakovsky’s estimates (2014), depending on the state’s policy, by 2030 possible population is in the range from 148 to 128 million. ^[36]

Ukraine

Депопуляционные процессы на Украине, характерные для ряда других бывших республик СССР, начались после распада СССР, были обусловлены не только низкой рождаемостью и высокой смертностью, но также отрицательным сальдо миграций (число переселяющихся на Украину значительно меньше числа выезжающих с Украины на постоянное место жительства). В период с 2010 по 2014 год наблюдался некоторый рост числа рождений, что оказало влияние на некоторое снижение общего темпа депопуляции. Однако с 2014 года, в результате политических потрясений, рождаемость вновь снизилась, а эмиграционные потоки усилились.

Финляндия

Как и Норвегия, страна находится в пред-депопуляционном процессе.

Швеция

Швеция — это страна, которая стала первой «жертвой» депопуляции (наряду с Японией) в мире. Население Швеции стремительно стареет. В 2012 году отмечена рекордно низкая рождаемость и рекордное число людей пенсионного и предпенсионного возраста. Поэтому Швеция продолжает наращивать миграционные потоки из-за рубежа.

Южная Корея

Республика Корея подвержена тем же тенденциям, что и многие развитые страны: низкая рождаемость и старение населения. В настоящее время Корея рассматривает возможность в будущем большего притока мигрантов из стран за пределами Корейского полуострова. В противном случае к 2030 году Корея может потерять до 25 % рабочей силы, а 40 % её населения будут пенсионерами.

Japan

Япония наряду со Швецией стала первой страной в мире, которая столкнулась с процессами старения нации и депопуляции. Если нынешняя тенденция сохранится, то к 2050 году по различным прогнозам, население Японии может сократиться с нынешних 127 млн человек до 110 млн. Японское правительство стимулирует рождаемость.

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• ВЕЛИКА ЛИ СМЕРТНОСТЬ В РОССИИ ПО МИРОВЫМ МЕРКАМ?
• Супотницкий М. В. , Супотницкая Н. С. Очерк V. «Чёрная смерть» — второе пришествие чумы в Европу (1346—1351) // Очерки истории чумы: В 2-х кн. - Prince I: Чума добактериологического периода. — М. : Вузовская книга, 2006. — С. 78—131. — 468 с. — ISBN 5-9502-0093-4 .