UK European Union Referendum

Initially, the Referendum Act on the European Union submitted to the British Parliament, the question was asked: “ Do the United Kingdom need to remain a member of the European Union? " ^{[6] [7]} . " Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union? ). Possible answers: “Yes” ( English Yes ) and “No” ( English No ) ^{[2] [3] [4] [6] [7] [18]} . Subsequently, the election commission proposed a different wording, which was adopted by the government in September 2015 before the third reading of the act in parliament ^{[19] [20]} .

Does the UK need to remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?

Original text

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?

Original text (wall.)

A ddylai'r Deyrnas Unedig aros yn aelod o'r Undeb Ewropeaidd neu adael yr Undeb Ewropeaidd?

And possible answers:

Remain a member of the European Union
Leave the European Union

Original text

Remain a member of the European Union

Leave the european union

Original text (wall.)

Aros yn aelod o'r Undeb Ewropeaidd

Gadael yr Undeb Ewropeaidd

Membership in the European Union has been a controversial issue in the UK since the country's accession to the then European Economic Community ( EEC ) in 1973. On June 5, 1975, a referendum was held in Great Britain on the country's membership in the EEC; the only question was in the ballot papers: “Do you think the UK should remain in the European Community (Common Market)?” ( Do you think that the United Kingdom should stay in the European Community (the Common Market)? ). 64.5% of the electorate participated, of which 67.2% chose the “yes” option ^[21] .

In January 2013, David Cameron promised that if conservatives win the 2015 parliamentary elections , the UK government will negotiate more favorable terms for continuing British EU membership, and then hold a referendum on UK membership in the EU, and the government’s position on membership will depend from the result of negotiations with the EU ^[22] . After winning the election in May 2015, David Cameron confirmed the decision to negotiate and subsequently a referendum. The referendum question was included in the Queen’s speech at the opening ceremony of the new parliament on May 27, 2015. On May 28, 2015, a proposal for a referendum was submitted to the House of Commons ^{[23] [24]} .

Regarding the position of other parties on the issue of holding a referendum, the Labor Party of Great Britain , led by Ed Miliband (2010-2015), opposed holding a referendum until a transfer of new powers from Great Britain to the EU takes place ^[25] . " Liberal Democrats " demanded a referendum only if new amendments to the EU treaties were adopted ^[26] . The British Independence Party , the British National Party , the Green Party of England and Wales ^[27] , the Democratic Union Party , and the Respect Party ^[28] supported the referendum principle.

Negotiations on changing UK status in the EU

Immediately after the May 2015 elections, the British Prime Minister announced the start of negotiations with the EU on the revision of the rules for UK membership in the European Union. The negotiation campaign was launched at the Eastern Partnership Summit in Riga on May 22, 2015 ^[29] . On May 26, 2015, David Cameron met with the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker , to discuss changes in migration legislation and the rejection of further political rapprochement between Britain and the EU as a requirement for the UK to maintain its membership ^{[30] [31]} . On June 26, 2015, at a meeting of the European Council, David Kemeron first outlined his reform plan at the level of an official EU body, speaking to all 27 leaders of the EU member states. This marked the beginning of formal negotiations on British requirements ^{[32] [33]} . In November 2015, the British government in an open letter sent to the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk , outlined the main goals that it wants to achieve through the negotiations. These goals included four blocks:

1. protection of countries outside the euro area from discrimination based on currency differences. Ensuring the unity of the common market for all EU countries, and not just for the Eurozone countries. Guarantees of financial non-participation of countries outside the Eurozone in activities aimed at supporting the euro.
2. increasing EU competitiveness and reducing the level of bureaucracy and business regulation.
3. a rejection of the obligation for the UK to participate in building an ever closer political alliance. Respect for the sovereignty of the country.
4. emigrants coming to the UK from other EU countries must work in the country for at least 4 years to receive benefits and social housing. Termination of the practice of sending child benefits abroad ^{[34] [35] [36]} .

On December 17-18, 2015, at a meeting of the European Council , the leaders of all EU states discussed the requirements of the United Kingdom. Progress was made on three of the four issues, while agreement on the issue of emigration could not be reached, since, according to a number of EU countries, the British proposals violated the right to freedom of movement in the single EU market ^{[37] [38] [39]} .

Negotiations continued at a meeting of the European Council on February 19-20, 2016. On February 20, EU leaders managed to reach an agreement on the requirements of the United Kingdom. On the same day, David Cameron announced that he supported the preservation of UK membership in the EU and that the referendum would be held on June 23 . At the same time, members of the UK government and other representatives of the "Conservative Party of Great Britain" are allowed to disagree with the Prime Minister and join the campaign supporting the exit from the EU ^{[40] [41]} .

The agreement, unanimously supported at a meeting of the European Council, is legally binding, but will come into force only when the UK notifies the Council of the decision to remain a member of the EU. The agreement guarantees respect for all EU members, regardless of whether they are members of the Eurozone or not. However, the UK will not be given a veto over decisions regarding the euro; countries wishing to deepen the integration of economies will be able to do this, and the euro will remain the union currency. In the agreement, the European Union reaffirmed its commitment to increase the competitiveness of its economy and reduce the administrative burden on business. The agreement confirms that the UK is not obligated to participate in the further political integration of the EU. It also creates a new mechanism, according to which if a group of national parliaments, representing more than 55% of the votes cast by national parliaments under a special rule, accepts a reasoned objection to a bill being considered by EU bodies, the Council of the European Union will cease to consider this draft or introduce amendments which should respond to objections from national parliaments. The agreement provides for the creation of a protective mechanism that will allow member countries to restrict access to migrant workers who have arrived from another EU country for up to four years from the start of their employment. To use this mechanism, a country must inform the European Commission and the Council of the EU that the influx of migrants from other EU countries threatens the stability of the social security system or the labor market. Based on the decision of the European Commission, the EU Council may allow a member country to apply a mechanism for limiting benefits for migrants. A permit from the EU Council has a limited duration of seven years and applies to migrants arriving from EU countries after receiving state permission from the EU Council. The agreement also allows member countries to index the child allowance paid to a migrant from another EU country according to the amount of the allowance in the country where the child lives. This provision does not apply to other types of social security and does not have retroactive effect ^[42] .

Referendum Act on the European Union was adopted by the Parliament of Great Britain at the end of 2015 ^[43] . This consultative referendum became the third national referendum in the history of Great Britain in the country (the first referendum was held in 1975 on the issue of membership in the EEC , the second in 2011 on changing the electoral system).

For Britain itself

On February 12, 2016, the Parliament of the United Kingdom published a report on current relations with the EU and the implications of the decision to withdraw from the EU and to maintain EU membership. The EU is the UK's main trading partner. In 2014, the union accounted for 45% of British exports of goods and services (295 billion euros) and 53% of imports to the UK (370 billion euros); EU countries accounted for almost half of total foreign direct investment in the UK - 636 billion euros, 48% (for comparison, 24% of foreign direct investment and 28% from other countries came from the United States).

The consequences of leaving the union will be most noticeable in areas such as foreign direct investment, the British contribution to the EU budget and migration to the British labor market. The report notes that belonging to a single market is one of the most important factors determining the level of foreign direct investment . On the other hand, outside the union, the United Kingdom may establish an investment regulation regime that is most favorable to foreign investors. With regard to contributions to the EU budget, in 2015, the United Kingdom contributed 10.9 billion euros to the union (about 0.5% of GDP). The UK contributes much more to the budget than it receives from it (that is, it is a “pure donor”). At the same time, some regions of the country where the standard of living does not reach the average European receive significant support through the EU structural funds ( European Regional Development Fund and the European Social Fund ), and UK agriculture is provided with high subsidies through the mechanisms of the Common Agricultural Policy (Agriculture is the main recipient of EU funding among all other sectors of the UK economy).

With regard to migration and the labor market , the following figures are given. Approximately 3 million citizens of other EU countries live in the UK and about two thirds of them have jobs. 1.3 million UK citizens live in other EU countries. The right to receive social benefits for people moving between EU member states is closely linked to the principle of free movement within the union. The UK exit from the EU can have significant consequences both for citizens of other EU countries living in the UK or wanting to move to the country, and for British emigrants in the EU countries. After leaving the union, the UK will be able to impose restrictions on immigrants' access to many social benefits. In any case, the status of immigrants in the UK in the event of its exit from the EU will be determined by the results of negotiations between the parties ^{[44] [45] [46]} .

If the UK decides to secede from the EU, it will have to conclude a new trade agreement with the remaining 27 countries in the European Union so that British companies can continue to sell their goods on the European market without facing higher tariffs and other restrictions. .

Supporters of the exit believe that Britain will be able to agree on an amicable divorce, which will allow it to maintain close trade ties with EU countries. .

Possible options :

• Norwegian option: Great Britain leaves the EU and joins the European Economic Area, which will provide it with access to a single European market, with the exception of part of the financial sector of the economy. It will also free Britain from EU rules in agriculture, fisheries, law and home affairs.
• Swiss version: Great Britain will follow the example of Switzerland, which is not a member of either the EU or the EEA, but is a Schengen country , and also concludes separate agreements with Brussels for each sector of the economy.
• Turkish option: Great Britain may enter into a customs union with the EU, which will give its industry free access to the European market, but the financial sector will not receive such access.
• The UK may also try to conclude a comprehensive free trade agreement with the EU according to the Swiss model, but with guarantees of access of the financial sector to the European market, as well as a certain amount of control over the formulation and implementation of common trade rules.
• The UK can completely break off its relations with the EU and rely only on WTO rules.

For the EU

• Partial loss of markets in the UK is possible.
• Perhaps the development of a new wave of separatism against the EU in almost all of its states, but especially in Greece , Sweden and Finland .
• The growth of the euro against the pound. Immediately after the referendum, the pound fell 7.5% (from € 1.31 to € 1.22 for several hours on the night of June 23-24, 2016) .
• Partial or complete expulsion of mainland migrant workers from England.
• The creation of a checkpoint at the entrance to the English Channel tunnel , which will greatly increase the travel time of the Paris-London train .

According to recent opinion polls, British society has split in half on this issue.

Against leaving the EU

British Prime Minister David Cameron wants Britain to remain part of the European Union on the basis of the new status of the country, which was agreed by EU leaders at a meeting of the European Council on February 19-20, 2016 ^[47] . David Cameron promises to speak “wholeheartedly and wholeheartedly” for Britain to remain a part of the EU if he succeeds in successfully negotiating EU reforms with other EU countries ^[48] .

Labor Party , Scottish National Party , Liberal Democrats , Plaid Cymru - Party of Wales , Green Party of England and Wales , Scottish Green Party ^[49] , Alliance ^[50] and Sinn Fein ^[51] are in favor of maintaining EU membership. As a result, public opinion on this issue was divided approximately equally.

They believe that EU membership is extremely beneficial for the UK, pointing out that it is easier for Britain to sell their goods to European countries and that migrants from EU countries, as they say, are mostly young people who want to work, and that all this accelerates the growth of the British economy and brings significant revenue to the treasury. They also believe that Britain’s status as a major power in the international arena will be undermined and that Britain’s security depends on its membership in the European Union. According to British director Rob Wainwright, Europol director, Britain’s exit from the EU will mean that the UK police will lose access to pan-European counterterrorism and intelligence programs. At the same time, it will become more difficult for security agencies to fight terrorism and organized crime ^{[52] [53]} .

Scotland's first minister, Nicola Stargen , opposed leaving the EU, saying that Scotland appreciates its place in Europe, and also pointing out that UK membership in the European Union is necessary for the development of the economy and the preservation of jobs in Scotland. In addition, she proposed making Britain exit from the EU possible only if all the peoples of the United Kingdom agree that, in her opinion, Scotland will be able to avoid “the fate of being outside the EU against her will” ^[54] . According to a study by the sociological company TNS, published in June 2016, 51% of Scots said they would vote for Britain to remain part of the EU, while 21% were ready to support the exit from the EU ^[55] .

Advocates of Scottish independence , including leaders of the Scottish National Party, said that if Scottish voters say they want to remain in the EU and, in general, the desire to leave the EU defeats the UK, this could be the basis for a second referendum on Scottish independence ^{[56] [ 57]} . The possibility of a second referendum in Scotland in the event of a country's exit from the EU was also indicated by the former British Prime Minister Anthony Blair ^[58] .
Irish Prime Minister End Kenny warned that Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union could harm the peace process in Northern Ireland Noting that the joint accession of Ireland and the United Kingdom to the EU in 1973 helped to reduce tensions in Northern Ireland ^[59] .

For Exiting the EU

Many of those who advocate Britain's exit from the EU say that neither the Norwegian, the Swiss, nor the Turkish are suitable for Britain. They want to conclude a free trade agreement, under which the EU laws will not apply to Great Britain, the country will leave the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice, it will not be subject to the free movement of people in Europe, and it will not pay any membership fees.

They believe that EU membership slows the growth of the UK economy, as Brussels adopts too many directives and laws, and in addition, London has to pay a significant amount to the EU treasury, receiving too little in return. They also want to return Britain to full control of its borders and reduce the flow of migrants. Freedom of movement within the European Union is one of its fundamental principles; this means that citizens of EU countries do not need a visa or other permits to settle in any country that is part of the union.

They also oppose the ideal of creating an “ever closer union” and any plans that could lead to the creation of a “United States of Europe”.

The British Independence Party , for which four million people (13%) voted in the May general election, demands Britain to leave the European Union. A similar political position is taken by the British National Front , the British National Party and other right-wing nationalist organizations.

Business Position

Almost all large companies advocate that Britain remain within the EU, as a result it is easier for them to sell their goods and move capital and their employees across the continent.

Not everyone agrees with this. Some business representatives believe that being completely independent, Britain will be able to more easily enter into trade agreements with other countries. Many small and medium-sized companies hope that exit from the EU will reduce bureaucratic procedures.

The UK Chamber of Commerce says 55% of its members favor maintaining the status quo .

Many sociological agencies support special pages of continuous monitoring:

• Polls of polls from NatCen displays the cumulative result of all polls by adding up the available polls for the period
• ICM Monitoring Page

Below are the latest polls. The most current information from surveys of all sociological agencies is available in the NatCen archive

“According to some polls, opponents of Britain’s EU membership make up 41%, and supporters - 38%. And this is already within the framework of the statistical error, ”said Elena Ananieva, head of the Center for British Studies at the Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences . She emphasizes that the data of various surveys conducted by research companies (Ipsos MORI, TNS and others) on this topic diverge. Also, two unknown factors remain: the turnout and how those who decide their position at the last moment will vote ^[63] .

On Friday night, after the pound rose to $ 1.50, the pound began to fall, and already at 0:00 in London began to fall. In the first minutes, the pound fell sharply by 4.8%, and by 5:30 fell to a 30-year low (1985) of $ 1,323, so the total drop was over 11% against the US dollar and the Swiss franc , over 8% against Euro , 16.7% against the Japanese yen . This fall of the pound was the largest in its history. Then the correction began and by the end of the day the pound was already worth $ 1,365. The fall of the pound triggered the fall of other market instruments, currencies, raw materials, indices, stocks, and a strong growth of the Swiss franc , Japanese yen and gold ^{[64] [65]} . Amid news of an increase in Brexit supporters, FTSE 100 companies lost around £ 100 billion in value, and the index fell 8% ^[66] .

The head of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, immediately spoke to reporters:

Capital requirements of the largest banks are now 10 times greater than before the financial crisis. The Bank of England conducted stress tests of banks in relation to the scenarios are much more serious than our country is facing now. As a result of these actions, UK banks raised capital by £ 130 billion and now have more than £ 600 billion of high-quality liquid assets. Significant capital and huge liquidity give banks flexibility, they must continue to lend to businesses and the UK population even in difficult times. In addition, as a support to the functioning of the markets, the Bank of England is ready to provide more than £ 250 billion of additional funds through its normal market operations. The Bank of England is also able to provide substantial foreign currency liquidity, if required. We expect institutions to rely on this funding when necessary. It will take some time for the UK to establish new relations with Europe and the rest of the world. Thus, some market and economic instability can be expected until the process unfolds, but we are well prepared for this. The Treasury and the Bank of England were involved in extensive plans and the chancellor, and I remained in close contact, including at night and this morning. The Bank of England will not hesitate to take additional measures as necessary, how to regulate the markets.

However, stock prices of the five largest British banks fell by an average of 21% the morning after the referendum. As a result of trading on Friday, HSBC and Standard Chartered fully recovered, while Lloyds , RBS Group and Barclays continued to fall by more than 10%.

The event with the pound and the market as a whole, economists call the Black Swan - difficult to predict and rare events that have significant consequences for the market.

The majority (51.89%) of the British who participated in the referendum (or 37% of the total electorate and 26% of the total UK population ) voted to leave the EU. The largest percentage of votes for secession from the EU was shown by the Boston region (75.6%), the largest percentage for staying - Gibraltar (95.9%). In all Scotland constituencies, supporters of EU membership won.

UK Country Results

In March 2018, after a scamming interview of one of the whistleblowers was published in the British media, a scandal broke out linking Cambridge Analytica's IT activities with official 2016 referendum promoters ^[67] , and already in July 2018, the UK Electoral Commission fined the Vote Leave campaign at 61 thousand pounds for violating the laws on justice and transparency of elections and referenda ^[68] . In parallel, in February 2018, the Amsterdam District Court, which examined the claim of British citizens living in the EU to preserve their civil rights after the country left the EU ^[69] , referred the case to the European Court for further consideration ^[70] . Однако уже в июне 2018 года решение окружного суда Амстердама было обжаловано правительством Нидерландов и городским судом Амстердама, отменившим раннее постановление суда низшей инстанции ^[71] . Одновременно с этим, во второй половине 2018 года в Великобритании постепенно набирало популярность ^[72] так называемое движение за "Народное голосование" ( People's vote ) ^[73] , поддерживаемое, в том числе, одной из организаций Джорджа Сороса (Best for Britain) ^[74] , и требующее проведения повторного референдума по результатам переговоров о выходе страны из ЕС ^[75] .

• Выход Великобритании из Европейского Союза (Brexit)
• Референдум о независимости Шотландии

• The Electoral Commission (англ.)
• Open Europe (англ.)
• Conservatives for Reform In Europe (англ.)
• Референдум о членстве Британии в Евросоюзе: Ход, итоги, последствия // Институт Европы РАН , 2016
• Референдум о членстве Британии в ЕС в вопросах и ответах // Русская служба Би-би-си, 16 фев 2016
• Брексит: что дальше? Мировые СМИ — о результатах референдума в Великобритании // ИноСМИ.ру , 24.06.2016
• Британский референдум 2016 года: технологические аспекты // «Минченко Консалтинг»
• Сообщение избирательной комиссии об итогах референдума (англ.)