U.S. Republican Party Primaries (2016)

This section lists all candidates (retired or with an active campaign) who participated in at least one debate, were present in recognizable opinion polls and registered with the federal election commission.

Primary Candidates

Candidates who left before the primaries

•  

  Former governor
  Texas
  Rick perry
  Dropped out
  September 11, 2015
  (Supported by Ted Cruise )
  then Donald Trump )
•  

  Governor
  Wisconsin
  Scott Walker
  Dropped out
  September 21, 2015
  (Supported by Ted Cruise ,
  then Donald Trump )
•  

  Governor
  Louisiana
  Bobby jindal
  Dropped out
  November 17, 2015
  (Supported by Marco Rubio ,
  then Donald Trump )
•  

  State senator
  South Carolina
  Lindsey graham
  Dropped out
  December 21, 2015
  ( Supported by Jeb Bush ,
  then - Ted Cruise )
•  

  Former governor
  New york city
  George Pataki
  Dropped out
  December 29, 2015
  (Supported by Marco Rubio )
  then John Caseic )

Delegate Results

Voting Results

District Results

In the 2012 presidential election, Republican candidate Mitt Romney lost to incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama . Fearing that the long run of the primaries could seriously damage the 2016 nominee, the party leadership decided to cut it - the 2016 Republican National Convention will be held from July 18 to July 21 and will be the earliest since the 1948 convention, which put forward Thomas Dewey in June 1948 . ^[12] For comparison, the 2012 Republican National Convention was held on August 27-30.

After announcing the start of the Ohio governor’s election campaign on July 21, 2015, the number of candidates reached sixteen, and thus these primaries officially became the largest in terms of the number of participants in the history of the Republican Party, surpassing the 1948 primaries. And after joining the presidential race of ex-Governor of Virginia Jim Gilmore on July 30 as the seventeenth candidate, these primaries became the largest in the number of participants in American history, ahead of the democratic primaries in 1972 and 1976, in which 16 candidates each participated.

In mid-December 2014, ex-Florida governor Jeb Bush , whom many considered a possible nominee due to his relatively moderate views, his experience as governor of the vacillating state , a recognizable name and wide access to sponsors, was the first candidate to form a political action committee ( The Political Action Committee (PAC); and the exploratory committee . Many other candidates followed suit. The first candidate to officially announce the start of the campaign was Texas Senator Ted Cruz , who was popular with grassroots conservatives because of his connection to the Tea Party .

Participants in the 2016 primaries reflect various trends in the Republican Party, among them there are “grassroots conservatives” represented by Cruz and neurosurgeon Ben Carson , and “Christian right” represented by former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and ex-Senator from Pennsylvania by Rick Santorum , and the moderate "establishment" presented by Bush and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie . In addition, some candidates, such as Caseik, Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal , Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker , Florida Senator Marco Rubio and Kentucky Senator Rand Paul , are equally sympathetic to conservatives and moderate. Two of the candidates have already participated in the 2012 primaries: Santorum and former Texas Governor Rick Perry . Finally, some candidates, including Carson, businessman Donald Trump, and ex- CEO of Hewlett-Packard Company Carly Fiorina , have no political experience, which they positioned as one of their main advantages.

These primaries are also often called the most diverse in American history. They are attended by two Hispanics (Cruz and Rubio), a woman (Fiorina), an Indian (Jindal) and an African American (Carson). Cruz, Jindal, Rubio, Santorum and Trump are children of immigrants.

2012-14: Early polls

After the defeat of Mitt Romney in 2012 , the Republicans did not have one specific favorite. Assumptions about the growing popularity of the more right-wing political spectrum, whose representative could be nominated, have become relatively popular: a number of young senators associated with the Tea Party , such as Ted Cruz from Texas, Rand Paul from Kentucky and Marco Rubio from Florida, were considered as possible options. Rubio, in particular, was in the spotlight immediately after the 2012 elections. In most polls from late 2012 to mid-2013, Rubio was the leader, being young, clearly expressing his thoughts, having support among both conservatives and moderate, as well as Hispanic in origin and actively promoting immigration reform, which was seen by many as an opportunity to make many Hispanics supporters of the Republican Party.

However, another point was expressed that the candidate should be a popular governor of a traditionally democratic or vacillating state , which would confirm the fact that such a governor could become a good president. Potential candidates to meet these criteria were former Florida Governor Jeb Bush , former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore , Ohio Governor John Caseyk , New York Governor George Pataki and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie . Christie's popularity, in particular, grew due to his manner of speaking loudly and directly at public events; as the governor of New Jersey, rather a democratic state, he began to get ahead of Rubio in polls from mid-2013 to early 2014, when he became a defendant in a scandal that damaged his reputation and rating. Although Christie was acquitted, he was never able to restore the status of the leader of the race.

After Christie's rating drop, from January to November 2014, poll results fluctuated. Potential candidates with often good results were Rand Paul, Wisconsin congressman and Vice Presidential candidate in 2012, Paul Ryan, and previous candidates in the previous primaries, such as former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and then Texas Governor Rick Perry ; overall, there was uncertainty in the upcoming nominee elections.

2014-15: Jeb Bush - Survey Leader

Although Jeb Bush often showed poor results from polls, he was considered one of the likely candidates because of his ability to raise significant funds, as well as his experience as governor of Florida (one of the vacillating states deciding the outcome of the election). In November 2014, Bush finally secured his leadership in the polls. Around the same time, talk began about the possibility of the third attempt of the previous nominee Mitt Romney to compete for the presidency. From November 2014 to the end of January 2015, his ratings in polls grew, challenging Bush. Although Romney admitted that he was pondering this idea after his defeat, in the end, on January 30, he refused to run.

However, by the end of February, less than a month after Romney’s refusal, Bush had another competitor - Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker , who, in particular, was pushing for popularity in his traditionally democratic state. Walker and Bush balanced each other in polls from late February to mid-June. Their confrontation also allowed other candidates, such as Rubio, Paul, and Huckabee, as well as newcomers like Ted Cruise and neurosurgeon Ben Carson , to improve their polling results.

Mid 2015: Donald Trump and the growing popularity of outsiders

After Donald Trump launched his election campaign, many noticed his unique, frank character, sharp communication and rhetoric that contradicted typical traditional political candidates. A similar style had an effect on potential Republican voters, and Trump began typing in polls, showing good results in early voting in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

After the successes of Trump, who had never previously held political posts, the main focus began to shift to candidates who were usually called “outsiders,” as a result of which the two other nominees began to grow rapidly: Ben Carson, who was second in the polls after the first debate, and Carly Fiorina, who got into the top three after the second debate. This shocked many political analysts. In mid-September, the first two candidates completed their campaigns. Rick Perry announced the end of the campaign on September 11, 2015 due to the failure of the first debate, unsuccessful attempts to raise money and an indictment against him. Ten days later Walker dropped out of the race due to low polls.

End of 2015: Stabilization, Six Leading Candidates

In late September, polls identified six leading public opinion candidates: Trump, Carson, Rubio, Fiorina, Bush and Cruz, respectively. Other candidates - Christie, Huckabee, Paul and Caseic - received 3% or less, leaving behind the top ten others - Santorum, Jindal, Pataki, Graham and Gilmore - had less than 1%. After the third debate, support for Bush and Fiorina begins to fall while Cruz began to rise in polls. Soon, Trump and Cruz became leaders, together making up more than 50% of the party electorate.

In October, most commentators said that the final four candidates who could qualify for the nomination were revealed: Trump, Carson, Rubio, and Cruz. Trump and Carson were outsiders, not only that, they were very different - Trump’s harsh nature with a tough look at foreign policy against softly speaking Carson. Rubio attracted Hispanics and supported immigration reform, spoke convincingly at debates and raised capital, while Cruz had connections with the Tea Party and Christian conservative voters. Soon after the attack on Paris, Jindal dropped out of the race. The attacks increased the popularity of Trump and Cruise, whose campaigns were based on tough positions on immigration, while Carson began to lose ground due to a slurred position on foreign policy.

In December, Cruz overtakes Carson in polls and takes second place after Trump, having 18%. Carson caught up with Rubio at 10%. On December 21, 2015, Graham completed his campaign, eight days later Pataki did it.