Mikhail Leonidovich Khazin (born May 5, 1962 , Moscow , RSFSR , USSR ) is a Russian economist , analyst , political scientist , blogger , television and radio host, and statistician. Former official of the presidential administration of Russia . Permanent member of the Izborsk Club [1] . Member of the Supreme Council of the International Eurasian Movement [2] . In May 2018, he was elected an academician of the International Academy of Management. He was one of the presenters of the Dialogue program at RBC and was the host of the Economics in Russian program at the Russian News Service . One of the presenters of the Economics program at the Moscow Says radio station. The author of numerous publications in the magazines " Profile ", " Expert ", " However ." He has repeatedly performed as a guest expert on Ekho Moskvy radio, the However television program , and various Internet channels .
| Mikhail Leonidovich Khazin | |
|---|---|
| Date of Birth | |
| Place of Birth | Moscow , RSFSR , USSR |
| A country | |
| Occupation | economist ( macroeconomist ), analyst , statistician , TV presenter and radio host , blogger , political scientist , publicist |
| Father | Leonid G. Khazin |
| Site | |
He is the creator and regular author of the Khazin.ru website, which contains reviews of the state and forecasts of the development of the global and Russian economies, as well as geopolitical analytics.
In 2003, co-authored with A. Kobyakov, wrote a book - “The Sunset of the Dollar Empire and the End of Pax Americana ”. In 2016, a joint book, “ Stairway to Heaven ”, was published with S. Shcheglov, devoted to questions of the structure of power.
Biography
Mikhail Khazin was born into the family of a leading researcher at the Institute of Applied Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences Leonid Grigoryevich Khazin [1] . My father studied the theory of stability at the institute. Mother taught higher mathematics at the Institute of Electronic Engineering . Grigory Leizerovich Khazina's grandfather received the Stalin Prize in 1949 [3] for his participation in the creation of the Moscow air defense system [4] with the official wording “for the development of new equipment”. The younger brother of Mikhail Khazin is academician of the Russian Academy of Arts Andrei Khazin [5] .
Khazin was born in Moscow on May 5, 1962, graduated from the math class of the 179th school. By his own admission, he dreamed of studying at Moscow State University [4] , but in 1979 he entered Yaroslavl State University . In his second year, he transferred to the Faculty of Mechanics and Mathematics of Moscow State University , which he graduated in 1984 with a degree in statistics (Department of Probability Theory ) [1] [6] . By distribution, he got to the Institute of Physical Chemistry to Alan Grivtsov , where from 1984 to 1989 he was engaged in theoretical substantiation of applied problems of chemical physics . On the website of the Physics Institute. Lebedev annotates several works of Khazin in statistical physics [ significance of fact? ] [7] [8] .
After this, Khazin spent two years at the Institute of Statistics of the USSR State Statistics Committee under the leadership of Emil Ershov [4] . In 1992, he headed the analytical department of ELBIM Bank , and in 1993 moved to the civil service. In 1993-1994, Khazin was an employee of the working center for economic reform under the Government of Russia . Since 1994, he worked in the Ministry of Economics , and in 1995-1997 he headed the department of credit policy of the ministry [1] [6] . According to Khazin, in 1996 he was to become deputy minister (at that time the ministry was headed by Yevgeny Yasin ), but the appointment was blocked by Yasin’s first deputy - Yakov Urinson . According to Mikhail Leonidovich, the disagreement with Urinson arose due to the report of Khazin [9] , prepared for the November board of the Ministry of Economics on non-payments, in which Khazin argued that "the reduction in the money supply in Russian conditions does not lead to a decrease in inflation, but to an increase" [4] . From 1997 to June 1998 - Deputy Head of the Economic Directorate of the President of Russia. He became a retired State Councilor of the Russian Federation III class [1] . Khazin believes that he was dismissed from public service "for a categorical unwillingness to compromise," and adds that after his dismissal, he "was not allowed to travel abroad for ten years" [4] .
From 1998 to 2000, he was a private consultant, then until 2002 he worked in the audit and consulting company Modern Business Technologies, and from the end of 2002, he was president of the expert consulting company Neocon [1] [6] , which specializes in strategic forecasting and relations with government agencies [10] . At the same time, Khazin, together with Oleg Grigoriev and Andrei Kobyakov, developed the theory of the modern economic crisis [1] , which was reflected in the book “The Sunset of the Dollar Empire and the End of Pax Americana ”, published in collaboration with A. Kobyakov in 2003 [11] .
From the fall of 2002 to the spring of 2015, he was president of the Neokon Expert Consulting Company LLC. In 2015, he founded the Mikhail Khazin Foundation for Economic Research [12] .
Khazin is a member of the expert council "Economics and Ethics" under the Patriarch of Moscow and All Russia [13] .
Mikhail Khazin is also a member of the public council of the Federal Tariff Service (FTS of Russia) [14] .
In August 2015, the SBU included Khazin in the list of cultural figures whose actions pose a threat to the national security of Ukraine [15] .
In 2016, he joined the Rodina political party and participated in the 2016 State Duma elections .
Economic Theory
Describing his work in the public service, Khazin said that he considered the main task “to understand how the economy really works and fix problems on the path of economic growth” in Russia. Khazin claims that in October 1997 the economic department sent a report to President Boris N. Yeltsin , in which he predicted the development of the crisis in Russia in the summer of 1998 with the current financial and economic policy [4] .
In his annually published forecasts, Khazin has consistently developed the theme of the inevitable global economic crisis. Its main points include the impossibility of continuing to stimulate final demand and expand markets, falling financial and economic indicators, reducing the level of division of labor and the collapse of the world economy into several currency zones.
Khazin, along with Oleg Grigoryev, head of the economic management department, after leaving the civil service, continued to study the causes of default [11] . In 2001, studying the intersectoral balance of the United States, Grigoriev put forward the concept of technological zones. By the end of the year, the main points of the theory were already formulated and the scale of the expected crisis was visible. Khazin himself sees the main problem of the crisis as the disappearance of the middle class , which is the basis of the socio-political stability of modern society [4] . Khazin believes that the main cause of the crisis is the exhaustion of final demand, exacerbated by excessive stimulation of consumer demand and uncontrolled emission of the dollar [6] .
After the crisis, according to Khazin, the US dollar will cease to be a global currency, but will become a regional currency, the other regional currencies will be the euro and the yuan; It is also possible - Indian rupee, dinar, ruble and some currency of Latin America [6] .
Khazin opposed Russia's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) . He expressed his position at the V International Open Russia: Partnership for Modernization Congress on March 25, 2011 [16] .
Public Speaking
RBC TV Channel [17] , Expert and Itogi magazines, slon.ru [18] , Izvestia [19] and Komsomolskaya Pravda newspapers [20] , Interfax information group [16] , at different times They called Khazin a famous Russian economist. According to Professor Dmitry Ognev, Khazin’s speeches combine a lively language and accessibility to a wide audience [21] . Khazin actively opposed the ideology of neoliberalism , plays the role of the economic "Kassandra" [ what? ] globalism and the global financial system. He consistently promotes the idea that the West and the US-centric system of the world economy are doomed for objective reasons the finiteness of capitalism [22] .
In 2000, an article [23] by Khazin and Grigoriev was published in the journal Expert, in which they forecast the economic crisis in the United States, expected in the same year and leading to a 1.5-3-fold drop in global average consumption [1] .
On September 10, 2001, the Expert magazine forum predicted that Wall Street financiers could launch terrorist attacks against the United States to gain control over the Bush administration [24] .
In October 2008, Khazin described the long-term and large-scale nature of the outbreak of the global financial crisis ; according to estimates based on his theory, he predicted: “There is a fear of major terrorist attacks. Just like what they (the USA) organized in 2001 ... as a result, the US economy will shrink by at least a third. The world will fall by 20 percent. After this, the planet expects 10-12 years of severe depression. In the US and Europe, I think many will live starving. And the car will become a luxury item ” [11] . Explaining these words in an interview with Pozner , Khazin speaks of a deliberate sharpening of the topic, that he needed to challenge the then prevailing "liberal" view of the unshakable state of the US economy as "Castle on the Hill" [25] .
At the end of 2009, speaking to Ural businessmen, Khazin predicted that the current world economic system would inevitably collapse, the middle class would cease to exist, the WTO would fall apart in 2-3 years, but Russia would have a chance to survive, because all countries will soon have to start from scratch [26] .
In the forecast for 2012, Khazin predicted "the beginning of a powerful emission in the United States, which is almost impossible to avoid." More precisely, it is possible in the case of tightening monetary policy, but such a scenario is unlikely before the US election. So, as soon as the emission is launched (at the very latest - in the early summer of 2012, so that it could have a positive impact on the result of the US presidential election, for Obama, of course), energy prices rise sharply and strongly - maybe up to 150— 200 dollars per barrel. At this moment, many representatives of the Russian elites and managers will have the feeling that happiness has returned, but this prosperity will not last very long. Then, after 3-5 months, a powerful inflationary wave will begin ” [27] .
In 2013, Khazin made a forecast about the development of the economy of Kazakhstan: “I think that it will be possible to maintain 5-7% economic growth even against the backdrop of a global recession. And the world economy will “fall” the way it “fell” in the USA at the time of the Great Depression - by about 30-35%. The GDP of Japan and the EU countries will “fall” by about 50%. US GDP will “fall” somewhere between 55% -60% ” [28] .
Khazin regularly acts as a leading or invited expert in the programs of the radio stations “Russian News Service” and “Echo of Moscow” [5] . According to 2013 data, he heads the TOP-7 invited guests of Ekho Moskvy radio [29] , most often appearing in the Credit of Confidence program, and was also the most popular host of RSN [30] with the Russian Economy program ( in the last issue of 2013, his departure from the program was announced [31] ). Khazin regularly performs in the genre of “answers to listeners' questions on the air” and gives comments on the topic of the day on RSN [32] and Ekho Moskvy [33] . Khazin was also a frequent guest of the Vis-a-Peace program on the Voice of Russia radio [34] [35] .
In 2007, Khazin hosted the Five in Economics program on Spas , which was the only weekly economic program on Russian television at the time [36] . As part of this program, Khazin interviewed Lindon LaRouche for an hour, which was broadcast on May 18, 2007 and was widely discussed on the Internet [36] [37] . In 2011, RBC TV launched a series of programs hosted by Victor Gerashchenko , Mikhail Khazin and Sergey Aleksashenko . The involvement of well-known economists, according to RBC Holding, allowed to expand the channel’s audience [17] . Khazin broadcast “Dialogue with Mikhail Khazin”. Khazin is also one of the experts on the television program “ However, ” on Channel One .
Hazin's articles are published by many newspapers and magazines, including Komsomolskaya Pravda and Expert. Until 2009, he was one of the authors of the magazine "Profile", after 2009, the magazine "However" [5] [38] . Khazin repeatedly talked with readers of the newspaper Argumenty i Fakty, made predictions and answered questions [6] . Interviews with Khazin and quotes from his speeches were published in the media outside Russia: Lithuania [39] , Azerbaijan [40] , Ukraine [41] . Khazin is one of the authors of the information and analytical service " Russian People's Line " [42] .
Mikhail Khazin maintains a blog [43] and was the creator and regular author of the Worldcrisis.ru website (later switched to Khazin.ru ), which contains reviews of the state and forecasts of the development of the world and Russian economies. He also has a number of publications on economics in Russian scientific journals included in the HAC list, reports at international conferences (see below).
Ratings
Academician Sergei Glazyev in 2010 called Mikhail Khazin one of the specialists who, long before the global economic crisis that began in 2008, predicted him in their works [44] .
In 2009, a liberal economist, Doctor of Economics Vladislav Inozemtsev in an article in Vedomosti compares the work of Khazin and George Friedman , founder of the American private intelligence and analytical center Stratfor , while evaluating them as “fantastic nonsense” [45] . Responding to Hazin’s article “Three Years Hunger Will Start in Eastern Europe” in the Special Letter newspaper [46] , Inozemtsev in a special interview notes a number of incorrect statements by Khazin, in particular, that after the war the United States bought more than it sold, and that in Eastern Europe will be hungry in three years. Inozemtsev attributes the last judgment of Khazin to “the symbiosis of alarmism and incompetence” [47] .
In the review of the book “The Sunset of the Dollar Empire and the End of Pax Americana”, Pavel Bykov notes a huge amount of reference information, systematically presented and deeply worked out. He notes that the authors of the book present their vision of the history of the development of the US economy, which is accompanied by a forecast of further events with many scenarios [48] .
At the beginning of 2009, Forbes columnist Leonid Bershidsky believed that “Khazin’s economic forecasts, which mainstream economists have laughed at, have tended to come true recently, begin to listen not only to him, but also to those whom he advertises - carriers even more unambiguous ethical judgments ” [49] .
The journalist of the Izvestia newspaper, Yevgeny Arsyukhin , speaking of Khazin’s forecasts, notes that in January 2008 he made a mistake in his statements, talking about the gradual weakening of the dollar and anticipating a lot of crises, but all overseas, and most importantly - not expecting an oil drop. In the official forecast for 2009, he was more restrained and did not give exact formulations, with the exception of one: “we will see single, and then more and more frequent sovereign defaults at the first stage,” which also did not happen [19] .
When publishing an interview with Khazin at the beginning of 2010, Forbes correspondent Anna Sokolova notes that Khazin’s forecasts of 2009, in which he predicted oil at $ 25 a barrel, a dollar at 45 rubles and millions of unemployed clerks on the streets of Moscow, did not come true. Mikhail Khazin explains this by the increase in the era of the crisis of the political and human factors and the impossibility of obtaining accurate forecasts in such conditions by purely economic methods. Sokolova believes that “terrible predictions” helped Khazin become famous, and since the beginning of the crisis, the number of references to his name in the press has grown six-fold [50] .
In a 2013 Forbes article, economic analyst Boris Grozovsky evaluates Khazin as the author of “catastrophic forecasts” that are ridiculous to argue with and compares them with the theses of the American economist Kotlikoff , who considers them “insane” [51] .
In December 2016, the Union of Journalists of Kazakhstan awarded Mikhail Khazin a gold medal of this organization [52] .
Major works
Books
- Kobyakov A. B. , Khazin M. L. The sunset of the dollar empire and the end of Pax Americana . - M .: Veche, 2003 .-- 368 p. - (New perspective). - 5,000 copies. - ISBN 5-9533-0143-X . Archived July 21, 2010. Archived July 21, 2010 on Wayback Machine
- Khazin M. L. “The Dead End of“ Catching Up “Development” and “The Return of the Red Project” in the book “Fortress Russia: Farewell to Liberalism”: Sat. articles. - M .: Yauza, Eksmo, 2005. ISBN 5-699-12354-7
- Khazin M. L. Preface to the publication in Russian of the book “This time everything will be different. Eight Centuries of Financial Recklessness ”- Carmen M. Reinhart , Kenneth S. Rogoff [trans. from English D. Storozhenko]. - M.: Career Press, 2011 .-- 528 p. - ISBN 978-5-904946-02-9 .
- Khazin M.L., Scheglov S.I. Stairway to Heaven. Dialogues about power, career and world elite . - M .: Ripol-classic , 2016 .-- 624 p. - (PRO power). - 4,000 (first) copies. - ISBN 978-5-386-09312-9 .
- Khazin M. L., Collective Monograph. “The subject of economic science and the evolution of the economy: reality and the dilemma” (chapter 3), Admiral F.F.Ushakov State Maritime University, 2014 −194 p.
- Khazin M. L., Collective Monograph. “The breakdown of the Bretton Woods system as an instrument of globalization. What next? ” (Chapter 9), Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, 2017 −154 c. - 1000 copies.
- Khazin M. L. “The Black Swan of the World Crisis” - Palmyra, 2017. - 415 p. - (PRO power). - 3000 copies.
Publications in editions from the HAC list
- Khazin M. L. Basic values of the financial and economic paradigm // Philosophy of Economics. - 2007. - No. 5. - S. 73—79.
- Khazin M. L. Need a new economic paradigm // Philosophy of economy. - 2011. - No. 4. - S. 192—196.
- Khazin M. L. About global projects // Philosophy of Economics. - 2005. - No. 2. - S. 275—298.
- Khazin M. L. Problems of managing real business in the current economic situation // Philosophy of Economics. - 2009. - No. 6. - S. 143-149.
- Khazin M. L. Forecast for 2008 for Russia // Issues of a new economy. - 2008. - No. 1. - S. 5-12.
- Khazin M. L. Why is the current crisis systemic? // Philosophy of economy. - 2010. - No. 2. - S. 139-142.
- Khazin M.L. Lessons from the crisis // Philosophy of Economics. - 2009. - No. 3. - S. 29—34.
Participation in international conferences
- Khazin M. Geopolitical and financial and economic grounds for reindustrialization // Report at the international conference “Innovative development of the Russian economy: regional diversity”, April 18, 2013.
- Khazin M. Report at the plenary meeting of the World Public Forum “Dialogue of Civilizations” in Rhodes, October 3, 2013.
- Khazin M. Crisis Theory // Report at the conference “West-East Relations: Prospects for Integration and Development in the Context of Globalization and the World Financial Crisis” in Modena, Italy, July 9, 2008.
Notes
- ↑ 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Mikhail Leonidovich Khazin . Izborsk club . Date of treatment October 19, 2013.
- ↑ Supreme Council of the International “Eurasian Movement”
- ↑ True. - April 9, 1949.
- ↑ 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Gospel of the bully . Results (September 10, 2012). Date of treatment October 19, 2013.
- ↑ 1 2 3 “Echo of Moscow”: “Credit of trust with Mikhail Khazin” . Editorial board.RU (July 1, 2010). Date of treatment October 19, 2013.
- ↑ 1 2 3 4 5 6 Dossier: Khazin Mikhail Leonidovich . Arguments and Facts (August 15, 2013). Date of treatment October 19, 2013.
- ↑ Recent work in statistical physics
- ↑ http://ksf.lebedev.ru/contents.php?post=1&year=2000&number=11&pages=&z=0&i=4#suda Work on statistical physics
- ↑ Khazin M. L. Report on defaults . Worldcrisis.ru. Date of treatment October 19, 2013.
- ↑ About the company . Neocon. Date of treatment October 19, 2013.
- ↑ 1 2 3 Mikhail Khazin: “Three years later, most of our oligarchs will go bankrupt” Komsomolskaya Pravda
- ↑ Personal site of Mikhail Khazin (Unavailable link) . Date of treatment February 18, 2016. Archived March 10, 2016.
- ↑ Liberal Satanism and Traditional Society .
- ↑ FTS of Russia: Membership of the Public Council.
- ↑ The Ministry of Culture named the names of Russians threatening the national security of Ukraine . Ukrainian truth (August 8, 2015). Date of treatment August 8, 2015. Archived on August 8, 2015.
- ↑ 1 2 Economists discussed the results of negotiations on accession to the WTO // Interfax
- ↑ 1 2 RBC publishes financial results for the first quarter of 2011: the company's advertising revenue grew by 47% // RBC Group
- ↑ Tea with an elephant. Economist Mikhail Khazin: “The government is a liberal team that is very afraid of being kicked out”
- ↑ 1 2 The vice of the prophets // Izvestia
- ↑ Famous economist Mikhail Khazin visiting KP (inaccessible link)
- ↑ “The famous Russian economist Mikhail Khazin told ISTU students about forecasts for the development of the global economy”, Professor of the ISTU Dmitry Ognev
- ↑ Posner and his targets: how social divisions in Russia are stimulated: EADaily (rus.) , EADaily . Date of treatment October 4, 2017.
- ↑ “Will America achieve the apocalypse?”
- ↑ https://web.archive.org/web/20040814162047/http://www.expert.ru/tmp/konfold/my18900.htm
- ↑ Posner - Guest Mikhail Khazin. 02/20/2017
- ↑ Mikhail Khazin: The dollar will grow relative to the euro, but what will happen to the ruble depends entirely on the Central Bank's “schizophrenic methods” // URA.RU, December 16, 2009
- ↑ Mikhail Khazin. The sea is worried - two // However
- ↑ Mikhail Khazin. MIKHAIL KHAZIN: “ASIAN TIGERS” WILL NOT BE MORE .
- ↑ Mikhail Khazin heads the TOP-7 invited guests of the Ekho Moskvy station
- ↑ Mikhail Khazin leads by a wide margin as the most popular presenter on RSN
- ↑ Khazin leaves the program “Economics in Russian”
- ↑ Speech by Mikhail Khazin at RSN
- ↑ Speech by Mikhail Khazin at Echo of Moscow
- ↑ Vis-a-vis the world of September 10, 2010 // Voice of Russia
- ↑ Vis-a-vis the world of August 26, 2011 // Voice of Russia
- ↑ 1 2 Moscow Interview: LaRouche on Four-Power Strategy for War Avoidance // Mathaba
- ↑ International Dialogue: LaRouche-Khazin Interview Circulates on Internet // LaRouche Blog
- ↑ Mikhail Khazin: Columnist . However . Date of treatment October 19, 2013.
- ↑ Second wave of crisis will hit Lithuania in 2014
- ↑ Russian economist expects Nabucco project to fail
- ↑ Despite the global crisis, Ukraine is increasing its external debt
- ↑ Authors on RNL: Mikhail Leonidovich Khazin // Russian Popular Line
- ↑ Mikhail Khazin's blog
- ↑ Glazyev S. Yu. “Strategy for the advance development of Russia in the context of the global crisis”, Economics, 2010. - 254 p. // Archived September 26, 2013 on the Wayback Machine ISBN 978-5-282-03056-3
- ↑ Vladistav Inozemtsev. The “Golden Age" of America - in the future // Vedomosti, September 25, 2009
- ↑ Mikhail Khazin, THREE YEARS IN EASTERN EUROPE HUNGER BEGINS // Special letter. August 27, 2009
- ↑ VLADISLAV OF FOREIGNERS refutes Mikhail Khazin // Special letter. November 30, 2009
- ↑ Resonance of P. Bykov to the book of M. Khazin in the journal "Expert" . Expert (April 5, 2004).
- ↑ Forbes about Hazin // Forbes
- ↑ “We Need Elite Analysis” // Forbes
- ↑ Boris Grozovsky. Why states can spend more than they earn // Forbes . 11/20/2013
- ↑ The solemn presentation of gold medals of the Union of Journalists of Kazakhstan place in Almaty .
Links
- Biography of Mikhail Khazin on the site of the Izborsk Club .
- Press portrait: Mikhail Leonidovich Khazin - compiled by the Yandex portal from media reports.
- Neocon - Expert Consulting Company
- khazin.ru - Personal site of Mikhail Khazin
- Khazin.ru - Mikhail Khazin's personal site on the crisis
- Articles by Mikhail Khazin on the KM.RU portal
- Hazin's Blog at Odnako.org
- Mikhail Khazin at the Russian News Service
- Mikhail Khazin on the radio Echo of Moscow
- - Mikhail Khazin's blog in LiveJournal