Next 100 Years: Forecast of 21st Century Events

The Next 100 Years: The Forecast for the Events of the 21st Century ( The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21th Century ) is a book by American political scientist George Friedman , which provides his forecast of the changes in geopolitics that can be expected in the world in the 21st century.

Friedman suggests that the United States will remain the dominant global superpower for the 21st century, and that the history of the 21st century will consist mainly of attempts by other world powers to challenge America’s dominance. The book also gives some economic, social, technological forecasts for the 21st century.

Second Cold War

In the 2010s, the conflict between the United States and Islamic fundamentalists will calm down, and the second Cold War between the United States and Russia will begin, not as large as the first, and much shorter. This will be characterized by Russian attempts to expand its sphere of influence in Central and Eastern Europe, along with the buildup of Russian military capabilities. During this period, the Russian military will pose a regional problem for the United States. The United States may become a close ally of some countries of Central and Eastern Europe, which during this period will actively resist Russian geopolitical threats. Friedman believes that it will be Poland , Czech Republic , Slovakia , Hungary and Romania . Around 2015, the Polish leadership will create the “Polish Bloc” of Eastern European countries.

China's economy will grow significantly and overtake the GDP of all countries; China will also develop its military and industrial potential, which already in the 2040s will push China with other world superpowers, such as Russia and India. On the geopolitical horizon, new stars will rise in turn: Japan , Turkey , Poland , Mexico .

Russia will try to regain control of the post-Soviet space in the 2020s, but after that it will collapse and fall apart completely, unable to withstand competition with more powerful states.

Fragmentation of Russia and China

In the early 2020s, a new Cold War will end at a time when economic deformations and political pressure on Russia, coupled with a declining population of Russia, plus poor infrastructure, will lead to the complete destruction of the federal government of Russia; this process will happen in much the same way as the USSR collapsed. Other countries, former republics of the Soviet Union, will collapse too.

Around the same time, mainland China (PRC) will be politically and culturally fragmented. The book argues that China’s excessively rapid economic development will cause social tension due to inequality in Chinese society. Regional tensions in the PRC will increase between prosperous coastal areas and poor inland areas. Friedman gives two possible scenarios: the first is to keep the country from fragmentation, the government will reduce or negate the influence of external interests and introduce the power of the “iron fist”; second, China will gradually crumble into autonomous provinces, while central power will gradually lose most of its real power. In the book, the author insists that gradual fragmentation is the most likely scenario.

In the 2020s, the fragmentation of mainland China, and closer to the 2030s, the collapse of the Russian Federation, will leave Eurasia in chaos. There will be new powers that redistribute spheres of influence in the area, and in most cases, regional leaders will surrender “without a fight”. In Russia, Chechnya and other Muslim regions, as well as the Far East, will gain independence. Finland annexes Karelia, and Romania annexes Moldova. Tibet will gain independence with the help of India, and Taiwan (OCD) will expand its influence in mainland China, while the United States and European powers, together with Japan, will restore regional spheres of influence in China.

The emergence of new forces

In the 2020s and 2030s, three countries will declare themselves: Turkey, Poland and Japan. Initially, with the support of the United States, Turkey will expand its sphere of influence and become a regional power, approximately as it was during the Ottoman Empire. The Turkish sphere of influence will extend in the fragmented Arab world, as well as to the north, to Russia and other countries, former republics of the Soviet Union. Israel, perhaps, will be the only country that will be included in the sphere of interests of the United States, but the only Mediterranean country outside Turkish influence; one way or another, he will be forced to compromise with Turkey.

Meanwhile, Japan will expand its economic influence in the coastal regions of China, the former Russian Far East and the Pacific Islands. Friedman predicts that during this period, Japan will change its foreign policy, becoming an increasingly geopolitically aggressive state. Friedman predicts that Japan will build military forces capable of responding to regional threats throughout East Asia.

Finally, Poland will continue to lead the military alliance, the Polish Bloc. Poland and its allies will be the main force, Poland will be able to restore the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. (Federation of the Kingdom of Poland and the Grand Duchy of Lithuania.) With substantial military power, Poland will expand its influence into the former European Russia; at the same time, it will begin to compete with Turkey due to the establishment of influence in the important economic region of the Volga River Valley. Around the same time, military space programs will appear. Along with other countries, Japan and Turkey will develop military capabilities in space.

Increasing tension

By 2020, the United States will be in alliance with three powers: Turkey, Poland and Japan (in alliance with Turkey and Japan, the United States will be around 75 years old). However, in the years after the end of the Second Cold War and the collapse of Russia, the US situation will gradually become more complicated, because Turkey and Japan will expand their military power and economic influence, and the new regional spheres of influence of Turkey and Japan will begin to threaten American interests. The growth of Turkish and Japanese naval forces and their military operations in this space will be especially alarming for the United States.

Japan and Turkey, with similar interests, are likely to form an alliance towards the end of the 2040s in an attempt to counter the overwhelming global power of the United States. In potential confrontations, the United States is likely to be in alliance with the “Polish Bloc”, probably with a strengthened China, India, united by Korea and the British Kingdom. The global tensions of the 2040s will be the result of competition between the two alliances.

Demographic Change

The book predicts that decades of low fertility in developed countries, especially in Europe, will lead to cultural, social and political changes in the first half of the 21st century. In such countries there will be economic and social tensions caused by a decrease in the percentage of the working population and an increase in the percentage of aging. As a result, the decades of the 2020s and 2030s will be marked by competition for immigrants.

In particular, the United States will greatly facilitate immigration control and try to attract as many foreigners as possible - especially Mexicans. Nevertheless, by the end of the century, robots will massively displace workers, and the emergence of massive unemployment in the United States will lead to an excess of labor, the United States will again limit immigration.

World War III

In the middle of the XXI century, approximately in the 2050s, the third world war will begin between the United States, the countries of the "Polish Bloc", Great Britain, India, China (one of the parties to the conflict) and Turkey and Japan (the other side of the conflict). Germany and France will enter the war in the later stages on the side of Turkey and Japan. Friedman suggests that the war will begin with a well-coordinated Turkish-Japanese attack against the United States and its allies; as one option, the specific date and time may be 5:00 pm on November 24, 2050 (Thanksgiving).

The initial strike of the Turkish-Japanese alliance will cripple the military potential of the United States and its allies in space. The Turkish-Japanese alliance will try to enter into negotiations, demanding the United States take the side of the Turkish-Japanese alliance as a fellow superpower. However, the United States will reject the terms and go to war, refusing to accept the fact of Turkish and Japanese hegemony over Eurasia. The first strike, which paralyzes US forces, will give the Turkish-Japanese alliance a tactical advantage; This will lead to the victory of the Turkish-Japanese alliance and force the United States to recognize the fact that they are now not the only superpower in the world and put them on a par with other superpowers. But Friedman is also considering the second option: First, the Turks, Japanese and Germans (as an example of one of the Western European countries.) Are waging victorious wars, but as a result, the Poles with US support will win and gain influence in the Adriatic Sea, but Friedman considers this outcome unlikely.

The main weapon of the war will be a supersonic long-range aircraft and infantry equipped with a new kind of armor with an exoskeleton. The control of outer space (apparently near-Earth) space will be crucial; space weapon systems and military forces in space will play an important role. The war will last about two or three years, but, according to Friedman, it will be limited, and will be very different from the total wars of the 20th century, for example, the Second World War. Friedman argues that this will be due to the fact that all the main forces involved in the conflict will possess nuclear weapons, and that the use of precision weapons will minimize collateral damage. It is estimated that population loss will be within 50,000 lives.

Post-war period

After the war, in the 2050s, a post-war boom will begin in the United States, which will continue into the 2060s. The economic boom will come as a result of increased defense spending, which will lead to the development of new technologies; Together, this will contribute to sharp economic growth and increased American influence around the world. In addition, the economic problems of the 2000s that emerged as a result of the massive retirement of the baby boomer generation will disappear when the last member of this generation disappears.

The United States will remain the main dominant power militarily and politically, as well as continuing space exploration. Meanwhile, Turkey will retain most of the sphere of influence, although its de facto empire will become less and less calm as a result of defeat, while Japan will lose its sphere of influence. According to the agreement signed at the end of the war, not dictated by the United States to a small extent, new military restrictions will be imposed on Turkey and Japan, although in practice they will be impossible and will simply be "humiliation of the victors defeated by force."

Meanwhile, as a result of victory in the war, the influence of Poland will grow due to the “Polish Bloc”. Although the country's infrastructure and economy will be destroyed, Poland will use this expanded scope of the Polish Bloc to rebuild its economy. Sooner or later, the United States will react to the growing power of the Polish Bloc as a potential threat in the future, and to prevent Polish hegemony in Europe, the United States will try to unite with the former enemy, Turkey, as well as Great Britain. Also, the US will actively oppose the use of space for military purposes.

US-Mexican Conflict

According to the book, North America will remain the center of gravity for the global economic and political system for at least a few centuries after the 21st century. However, this does not guarantee that the United States will always dominate North America. For decades after the war, starting in the 2070s, tensions between Mexico and the United States will increase. After decades of mass immigration, many parts of the United States, especially in the southwest, will become ethnically, culturally, and socially Mexican. During this period, many ethnic Mexicans living in the southwestern United States, especially those who live in Mexican communities, will increasingly avoid assimilation in American culture. These demographic changes will be irreversible, and most Mexicans in the southwestern United States will sooner or later call themselves Mexicans, not Americans, and their national loyalty will be associated with Mexico and not with the United States. During this period, Mexico will experience substantial economic growth and population growth, and by the end of the 21st century, Mexico’s military and economic power will grow so much that it will be able to challenge the United States. In addition to the riots of Mexican separatists, political, cultural and military tensions between the United States and Mexico will increase and lead to a full-scale confrontation.

It will be a crisis between the United States and Mexico, which the United States will not be able to solve through the use of military force. Most of the world, fearing American domination, will secretly hope for a victory for Mexico, especially Poland and Brazil, but no one else dares to intervene directly. Friedman's final forecast suggests that this conflict may continue into the 22nd century.

Technology Forecasts

Among the technological predictions made in the book, there is the development of a new generation of hypersonic aircraft and rockets for space technology that will accelerate the development of lunar military bases and manned military orbital platforms (called “battle stars” in the book); solar-powered robotic armored combat suits for infantrymen are also mentioned. By that time, most of the Earth’s energy needs will be covered by energy in the form of solar energy, focused and transmitted by satellites in the form of radiation to receiving stations on the surface of the Earth; thereby ending the dependence on hydrocarbons. New advances in robotics and genetic science will lead to a significant increase in labor productivity, but unemployment will occur as a result of robotic jobs, but at the same time, human life will increase significantly. The author also hints at the widespread proliferation of nuclear weapons, arguing that Japan, Turkey and Poland will have nuclear weapons by the middle of the century, while there will already be more than a hundred years since the technology of building nuclear weapons ceases to be a state secret.

Forecast Update (for 2015)

In 2015, Stratfor published an edited forecast for 2015–2025, which clarified the initial forecasts made in the book. ^{[1] The} initial prediction of the destruction of the Russian government has been replaced by a gradual loss of central authority; regions do not separate and become independent, but receive partial autonomy. The forecast for the complete destruction of China has also been revised; instead, a scenario was proposed for a sharp tightening of central authoritarian power.