Scenarios (scenarios) is one of the methods used in future research ( futurology ).
Scenarios are a collection of equally convincing stories, each of which describes one of the potential futures. Each of the stories is filled with the necessary details, and also takes into account possible unforeseen events in the future [1] .
Content
History
For the first time, scenarios began to be used in the US air force after World War II in order to calculate the possible options for enemy actions. In the 1960s, Herman Kahn , who had previously worked in the air force, first began using the method of scenarios to solve business problems. In the 1970s, the scenario method reached a new level of development thanks to the ideas of Pierre Wack , who worked for Shell [2] .
Script Features
Scripts allow [3] :
- choose a realistic goal for the future (with strategic planning);
- prepare morally for possible shocks;
- evaluate the long-term implications of decisions.
Using scenarios in strategic planning in an organization — see Scenario Planning .
Scenario Examples
- Scenarios for the development of Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East
- Shell energy future scenarios
- Logistics in 2050 - scenarios from DHL
Links
- 1996 Schwartz P. (1996) The Art of the Long View: 2nd edition. Currency and Doubleday, USA, p. xiii
- 1996 Schwartz P. (1996) The Art of the Long View: 2nd edition. Currency and Doubleday, USA, p. 7
- 1996 Schwartz P. (1996) The Art of the Long View: 2nd edition. Currency and Doubleday, USA