The consequences of the civil war in Libya

Tank cemetery near Misurata

Armed forces of the PNS and countries participating in the International Coalition

• During the conflict, 4145 people were killed and military units of the PNS, 3144 went missing ^[3] . More than 1000 wounded (Eastern Front) ^[4]
• There are no casualties among the Western Coalition aviation forces ^[5] , with the exception of one British Air Force employee who died in an accident at an air base in Italy ^{[6] [7]} . Losses in technology amounted to two aircraft: one F-15E “Strike Eagle” (March 21, 2011) ^[8] and one unmanned aerial vehicle MQ-8 Fire Scout (originally issued by the Libyan side as a manned combat helicopter AH-64) ^{[9 ]} , shot down on June 10, 2011 near the town of Zliten (30 km west of Misurata ) and fell into the sea ^[10] . Also during the conflict, three Dutch marines were captured by the Libyan government forces in Sirte, and a Westland Lynx helicopter was captured ^[11] . Later, the infantry were released ^[11] .

During the Libyan conflict, statements began to appear in various Russian Internet resources that, in addition to the air force, huge contingents of ground forces of Western countries secretly participated in the Libyan civil war, and hundreds or even thousands of Western soldiers died during the fighting ^[12] . The absence of any data on such losses in the media or among the reports of human rights INGOs is explained by these resources by carefully planned Western tactics of conducting information warfare , in order to hide the true motives of NATO military intervention in Libya ^[13] . So, according to the Russian Internet site "Military Observer", the loss of the British SAS in Libya amounted to 35 people ^[13] . Russian journalist Alexander Grigoriev, citing British military expert Peter Beinchley, citing his own sources in the SAS, cited approximate casualties of 21–35 people ^[14] . At the same time, the Russian military expert, the head of the Center for Military Forecasting Anatoly Tsyganok, referring to an unnamed German military expert, cited other figures for the losses of Western intelligence services in general. According to these data, the British lost 1,500-2,000 soldiers during the conflict, France - 200-500 people, the United States - at least 200, Qatar - more than 700 ^[12] . Roughly the same loss figures were announced by the vice president of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems, doctor of military sciences, captain of the first rank Konstantin Sivkov. However, these data are highly doubtful, as they are not confirmed by any official sources.

According to these same resources, NATO forces also used radioactive weapons during the war, which severely worsened the ecology of Libya and led to even greater casualties. ^[3]

Gaddafi Government Armed Forces

• 2114 government forces were killed and more than 812 captured ^[3] (300 were captured in Benghazi ^[15] , 230 were captured in Misrat ^[16] , 52 in ^[17] , 13 in Yafran ^[18] , 50 - in Al Qala ( Eng. Al Qalaa ) ^[19] and 147 captured in Zintan ^[20] ). According to the Daily Mail (July 2012), in August 2011 alone, about 1,000 captured soldiers of government forces were executed in Misurata, although, according to the newspaper, the executions of prisoners continued until 2012 ^[21] . The total losses of the Khamis brigade amounted to more than 9000 people ^[22] .
• Air defense equipment ^[23]
• Frigate "Al-Gardabia" project 1159 ^[24]

The estimated number of dead and missing 300 (as of February 23, 2011) ^[25] - 6000 (as of March 2, 2011) ^[26]
from 150 ^{[27] [28]} to 3,000 ^[29] dead according to various sources; more than 700 (according to some sources) and 1,100 (according to others) dead and more than 4,000 (according to other sources) and 4,500 (according to other sources) injured civilians as a result of bombing by NATO aircraft ^{[30] [31]} According to the British newspaper The Daily Telegraph on June 26, 2011, on both sides, including civilians, 20,000 were killed or killed. ^[32] Assessment of the Transitional Government on October 20, 2011: over 50,000 ^[33]

According to the International Committee of the Red Cross , as of February 28, 2011, 256 people were killed and 2,000 wounded in Benghazi ^[34] .

According to the Libyan Human Rights League (LLHC), the death toll on March 2, 2011 was at least 6,000, three thousand in Tripoli, two thousand in Benghazi and a thousand in other cities. ^[35]

Muammar Gaddafi said on March 2, 2011 that no more than 150 people died, although a week earlier the media, citing the Libyan government, reported 300 dead ^[36] .

The UN Human Rights Council names the number of 10,000-15,000 dead ^{[37] The} World Health Organization speaks of 2,000 people ^[38] . Similar figures are called by the International Federation for Human Rights ^[39] .

According to the director of one of the Misurata hospitals on April 14, 2011, at least 700 people have died since the uprising in the city ^[40] . By this time, fights between rebels and the government army were still ongoing in the city, although Libyan television announced that the army had established control of the city on March 17, 2011 ^[41] .

According to the official Tripoli statement made on June 1, 2011, from March 19 to May 26, 718 were killed and 4067 wounded from NATO missiles and bombs. ^[30] At the same time, the Libyan army refused to report its losses ^[42] .

According to information voiced by the plenipotentiary ambassador of the Islamic Republic of Iran to Russia, Mahmoud Reza Sajjadi, 40,000 people died under NATO bombing alone ^[43] .

According to the information of the former Russian ambassador to Libya , V.V. Chamov, in 2011, 30,000 Libyans went missing during the hostilities ^[44] .

The result of the civil war was the actual collapse of Libya as a single state. The real power in the country belongs to many militias created on the basis of the territorial-tribal principle ^[45] . Cyrenaica declared autonomy from the center, where its own Supreme Transitional Council and ministries were formed ^[46] . The consequence also was the tribal struggle that was restrained by the Gaddafi regime ^[47] .

On July 7, 2012, elections to the Libyan National Congress were held. The first elections in the past 40 years were highly praised in the West, for example, British Foreign Secretary William Hague said in this regard that "the Libyan people are taking a historic step towards freedom and responsibility," and the UN special envoy for Libya, Ian Martin called them "great success " ^[48] . Some specialists in the region, for example, Mikhail Margelov, special envoy of the President of the Russian Federation for cooperation with African countries, chairman of the Federation Council committee on international affairs, believe that such elections “will not lead to a positive unification of Libyan society” ^[49] . Elections were held a month later than planned ^[50] . Elected members of the General National Congress, who were suspected of having relations with Gaddafi after the election, were expelled from it ^[51] . It was previously stated that supporters of Gaddafi will not even be allowed to participate in the elections ^[52] . The tribes of eastern Libya actually ignored the past election ^[53] . In general, the elections were quite successful in Tripoli and other major cities; in the remaining regions of the country, the elections either did not take place at all or were held with a limited number of participants ^[54] . In general, the elections showed that the struggle was not so much between political movements as between tribes ^[55] .

Even a year after the “official” end of the civil war, according to the head of the Libyan military complex, Mohammed Youssef al-Magref, “the campaign to free the country has not been completed,” referring to the rebellion in the pro-Dafi Beni Walid. The country also continued to be flooded with many armed groups that did not submit to the government in Tripoli ^[56] . Moreover, the number of such formations exceeds the size of the new Libyan army, which greatly complicates the issue of their disarmament ^[57] .

2 years after the outbreak of civil war in the country, no political reforms aimed at freedom and equality were carried out. In fact, the country was ruled by several tens of thousands of well-armed people controlled by al-Qaeda and the Justice and Construction Party (a branch of the Muslim Brotherhood ) ^[58] .

On May 5, 2013, a law on political isolation was adopted in Libya, according to which officials who held senior positions under the old government cannot work in government structures ^[59] . The law was adopted after militants of several regional brigades besieged key ministries of the country for a week, and in relation to some, they attempted to storm ^{[60] [61] [62]} .

The conflict had certain political consequences for the NATO bloc. Thus, the United States abandoned its traditional leadership role in conducting the operation, along with the refusal to participate in Germany . Under these conditions, France and Great Britain took the lead and the main role in the operation. A similar situation has developed for the first time since the Suez crisis ^[63] . Despite this, according to the expert of the German Institute for International Politics and Security Claudia Major, expressed in May 2011, about 90% of military operations (which occurred at that time) were possible only thanks to US support ^[64] .

The participation of Western countries in the war caused protests in Europe, as, for example, this happened in Germany or Spain ^[65] .

According to Denis Tull and Wolfram Lacher (Institute for International Politics and Security, Berlin), NATO’s intervention in the civil war in the North African state led to an increase in mistrust of African governments towards Europe and the USA, partly because the African Union stands for the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of sovereign states ^[66] .

The political consequence of the Libyan crisis should be considered the transfer of armed confrontation to neighboring countries, as, for example, this happened in Mali . The Tuaregs who fought on the side of Gaddafi raised an uprising in the Sahara part of the state and took control of it. But despite the fact that the population of Mali is twice the population of Libya, the conflict, according to New York Times columnist , did not attract as much attention due to the fact that this country does not have a strategically important position and does not rich in oil ^[67] . After the completion of the main phase of the Libyan conflict, the country became a source of arms to many neighboring countries, in particular to Mali, Mauritania, Nigeria, Egypt, Tunisia and some others ^[68] . Most deliveries go through 2 Libyan cities - Benghazi and Misuratu. According to the report of UN Security Council experts, the new Libyan authorities are well aware of large-scale arms deliveries or even directly involved in this process ^[69] .

The consequence of the conflict was the deterioration of Libyan relations with neighboring Algeria, due to the fact that the latter granted asylum to parts of the Gaddafi family. Also, the result was the intensification of terrorist organizations in the region ^[70] , which the US military recognized ^[71] . A number of armed attacks on Western diplomats are associated with increased terrorist activity. In one of the attacks, the American consulate in Benghazi was taken and several diplomats were killed, including the US ambassador to Libya. ^[72] Consuls of Italy, Great Britain and some others were also subjected to armed attacks ^[73] .

Libya itself

According to a study by the international consulting company Geopolicity, Libyan budget losses alone amounted to about $ 14 billion. The country's infrastructure was heavily damaged. By August 2011, due to lack of raw materials and poor technical condition, all oil refineries in the country stood up ^[74] . According to IMF estimates, the country's GDP loss by the fall of 2011 amounted to $ 7.7 billion ^[75] . According to the results of 2011, the country's GDP lost 60% compared with 2010 ^[45] . Inflation reached a high level, as indicated by more than double the Libyan dinar's money supply ^[45] .

A significant part of Libya's $ 150 billion in foreign accounts was frozen ^[3] . According to the chief researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, doctor of historical sciences Anatoly Egorin, these funds are actually lost for Libya itself ^[57] . According to the same source, direct damage from NATO bombing is estimated at $ 14 billion, which is 7 times higher than the damage to the country from German bombing during World War II at comparable prices ^[57] .

The oil industry of the country suffered heavy losses. If before the start of the conflict, daily oil production amounted to 1.6 million barrels per day, then in mid-September only 200 thousand were produced, that is, production fell 8 times ^[76] . The result was a jump in oil prices ^[77] , as a result of which the base price of a barrel of OPEC oil reached a 2.5-year high ^[78] . So, on February 22, 2011, the price rose by 3.4%, and 2 days later a new jump was recorded - by 4.8%, as a result of which the oil price reached $ 111.01 per barrel, and by April reached 120.91% ^[79] . According to the Minister of Finance of Libya, Abdelhafiz al-Zlitni, by August 2011, the country's oil industry lost up to $ 50 billion, including $ 20 billion from the suspension of oil exports ^[80] .

The Libyan authorities initially planned to restore the pre-war pace of oil production by the end of 2011, and then by mid-2012. But by the beginning of 2013, the production level was not restored and amounted to no more than 1.4 million barrels per day. Difficulties in the recovery of production are associated with the constant armed clashes in Cyrenaica, the country's main oil-producing region, and the lack of necessary financial resources ^[81] .

The functioning and further development of the largest irrigation project in the world - the Great Man-Made River , as well as the construction project “New Dubai”, within the framework of which it was planned to invest about $ 500 billion over the course of 10 years, were threatened ^[82] .

As a result of the conflict, Libya has become a debtor to countries where rebels were treated. So, the debt only to Greece amounted to about € 150 million ^[83] .

However, foreign trade with the EU, which almost tripled in 2011, already exceeded the 2010 level in 2012 ^[84] .

Western countries

According to official figures, the conflict cost the United Kingdom , France and the United States $ 2.2 billion. However, according to independent expert Francis Tusy, only the UK operation in Libya cost $ 2.7 billion ^[3] . US costs on the first day of the operation and only on missiles amounted to about $ 100 million. According to senior Harrison Center for Strategic and Budget Assessment researcher, the costs of the initial phase of the operation from the United States to suppress the Libyan air defense system could reach $ 400-800 million ^{[ 85]} .

According to Dmitry Adamidov, head of the analytical department at Investkafe, the loss of Western oil companies may amount to $ 50 billion ^[86] .

Russia

Russia's losses as a result of the civil war and the change of power in Libya will amount to several billion dollars. This primarily concerns the supply of weapons. The officially lost profit is estimated by Russia at least at $ 4 billion ^[87] . So, the new authorities annulled the contract for the supply of 6 combat training aircraft Yak-130 in the amount of more than $ 90 million ^[88] .

Russian Railways investment project worth € 2.2 billion, as well as interests in the oil and gas sector, are in doubt ^[89] . So, only Tatneft estimated its losses on capital investments at $ 100 million, while the total losses of the company are twice the specified amount. If the company completely leaves the North African country, then another $ 200–220 million will be added to these losses. Gazprom also had to close projects in Libya ^[90] . In general, experts do not have a clear opinion about Russian economic interests in the country after the civil war ^[91] .

African countries

Refugees who were not citizens have economic consequences for neighboring countries, since work in Libya was an important source of foreign currency for some countries, which they lost ^[92] .

China

The damage to Chinese companies from the Libyan conflict amounted, according to the Ministry of Commerce of the PRC, to $ 18.8 billion. Also, the result was a decrease in the activity of Chinese business in the region as a whole ^[93] .

In the prisons of numerous regional brigades, there are about 8.5 thousand people accused of collaborating with the previous government, while the number of political prisoners under M. Gaddafi did not exceed 6 thousand ^[45] .

The consequence of the civil war was an increase in crime. So, the new authorities recorded an increase in homicides in 2012 compared with 2011 by 503%, the number of thefts by 448%, etc. ^[94] . Massacre of fighters against their opponents right in hospitals, where the latter fell after armed clashes ^{[95] [96]} , became a common practice.

Due to insecurity, problems arose with air traffic in the country. So, Lufthansa, which organized regular flights to Libya in February 2012, was forced to stop them a year later due to the “tense situation in the region” ^[97] .

According to the representative of the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, UN Melissa Fleming, as of March 2, the number of refugees in the conflict zone reached 180 thousand people. 77 thousand people (mainly Egyptians) fled to Egypt, about the same number went to Tunisia, and about 30 thousand are waiting in line at the border ^[98] . Losses - from 351 to 6000 people. By early May, according to information voiced by EU Commissioner for Internal Affairs Cecilia Malmström, the number of refugees was 650 or 750 thousand. ^{[99] [100]}

According to the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, the peak exodus of refugees from Libya was 10-15 thousand people per day ^[101] .

According to BBC News , in mid-August 2011, more than 30 thousand people were expelled from the city of Tavarga in northern Libya. Human Rights Watch considers the incident an act of revenge and collective punishment for supporting residents of Gaddafi's forces during the siege of Misurata ^[102] .

According to a UN report dated January 18, 2012, all countries of the Sahel region experienced a negative effect of the Libyan crisis in the form of an influx of refugees, namely Algeria, Chad, Egypt, Mali, Mauritania, Niger and Tunisia ^[103] .

• unrecognized Independent State of Azawad
• Armed clashes in Libya after the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi
• Civil war in Libya (since 2014)

• Tsyganok A.D. US and NATO intervention in Libya and its consequences for Syria, Iran, the Caucasus: Russian view M .: AIRO-XXI, 2012. - 448 p.
• Denis M. Tull, Wolfram Lacher Die Folgen des Libyen-Konflikts für Afrika // SWP-Studie Berlin 2012 ISSN 1611-6372