Sea level rise is a process observed since the middle of the 19th century , as a result of which, during the 20th century alone , the global sea level has risen by 17 cm. Since 1993, sea level has risen by 3.2–3.4 mm annually [1] [2] .
The main reason for this process is global warming , the rest are insignificant (see below). A warmer climate affects global oceans in two ways. The first of these is the thermal expansion of water, which thus acquires a larger volume. The second is the worldwide melting of ice , which brings additional water to the world's oceans.
Content
- 1 Modeling
- 2 Implications for humanity
- 3 See also
- 4 notes
- 5 Links
Modeling
According to the results of computer simulations by scientists of the Potsdam Institute for the Study of Climate Change in 2014-2015, the current trend of climate warming will lead to a long-term increase in sea level by 3 meters over hundreds and thousands of years [3] .
According to other forecasts (2009), by 2100 sea level rise is expected from 0.5 to 2 m [4] [5] . Over the next 300 years, it may increase from 2.5 to 5.1 m [6] . Other authors question such results and point to insufficient coverage of the Earth by measuring stations, which makes the statistics unreliable. The slight movement of the center of gravity of the Earth can affect sea level in different regions, among which there are even those where the sea level goes down. It is also predicted that sea level rise until 2100 will be 40 cm [7] or 15 cm [8] . Studies in 2018 show that the growth rate of sea level is increasing and with a conservative assessment of the development of environmental factors responsible for the current level change, the total increase by the end of the century should be 65 cm from the level of the 2010s. [2]
Implications for Humanity
Rising sea levels threaten primarily island states , states with a long coastline, as well as with most of the areas located relatively low. Examples of the latter are Bangladesh and the Netherlands . The threat to poor countries is much higher than for rich countries, which can afford expensive measures to protect and stabilize their coasts. The cost of effective coastal protection, as a rule, is much lower than the damage from inaction [9] [10] .
The rise in sea level by 20 cm is estimated to deprive 740 thousand people of shelter in Nigeria alone [11] . At the same time, such a state as Tuvalu will go under water [12] .
See also
- Transgression is a local or global rise in sea level in the geological past.
Notes
- ↑ CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research: Historical Sea Level Changes: Last Two Decades
- ↑ 1 2 ( Sea ) Sea Level Rise Accelerating , SpaceRef, Keith Cowing, 13/13/2018
- ↑ Collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet after local destabilization of the Amundsen Basin : [ eng. ] / J. Feldmann, A. Levermann // Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences . - 2015. - Vol. 112, No. 46 (17 November). ;
Local destabilization can cause complete loss of West Antarctica's ice masses , Potsdam Institute for the Study of Climate Change (02/11/2015). ;
Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise : [ eng. ] // Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences . - 2014 .-- Vol. 111, No. 9 (March 4). - ↑ Allison et al. (2009): The Copenhagen Diagnosis
- ↑ Vermeer, Martin / Rahmstorf, Stefan. Global sea level linked to global temperature // Proceesings of the National Academy of Science. - 2009.
- ↑ Wissenschaftlicher Beirat der Bundesregierung Globale Umweltveränderungen (2006): Die Zukunft der Meere - zu warm, zu hoch, zu sauer . Sondergutachten, Berlin (PDF, 3.5 MB) Archived on December 28, 2009. (unavailable link from 13-05-2013 [2326 days] - history )
- ↑ Geodetic Oceanography and Sea Level Archived January 3, 2012 to Wayback Machine (unavailable link from 05/13/2013 [2326 days] - history )
- ↑ Long Term Tide Gauge Data Show 21st Century Sea Level Rise Will Be Approximately As Much As The 20th Century
- ↑ Robert J. Nicholls, Richard Tol. Impacts and responses to sea-level rise: a global analysis of the SRES scenarios over the twenty-first century // Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A. - 2006. - April ( t. 364 , No. 1841 ). - S. 1073-1095 . - DOI : 10.1098 / rsta.2006.1754 .
- ↑ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change : Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Report of the Working Group I on the Physical Science Basis Archived on May 1, 2007.
- ↑ Klaus Paehler. " Nigeria in the Dilemma of Climate Change ."
- ↑ Patel, SS A sinking feeling // Nature. - 2006. - No. 440 . - S. 734-736 . Archived on September 29, 2009.