| Business cycles | |
| Cycle name | Characteristic period |
|---|---|
| Kitchin cycle | 3-4 years |
| Juglar cycle | 7-11 years old |
| The Blacksmith's Cycle | 15-25 years old |
| Kondratiev cycle | 45-60 years old |
The cycles ( rhythms ) of the Blacksmith have a duration of about 15-25 years. They got the name Kuznets cycles after the name of the American economist, future Nobel Prize winner Simon Kuznets . They were discovered by him in 1930 [1] .
The blacksmith associated these waves with demographic processes, in particular, the influx of immigrants and construction changes, so he called them “demographic” or “building” cycles.
Currently, a number of authors consider Kuznets rhythms as technological, infrastructural cycles [2] . As part of these cycles, there is a massive update of core technologies. In addition, large cycles of real estate prices on the example of Japan in 1980-2000 and the duration of the large half-wave of price increases in the United States well coincide with the Kuznets cycle.
A suggestion was also made to consider the Kuznets rhythms as the third harmonic of the Kondratieff wave [3] .
In his work, Moses Abramowitz cites the following data regarding the years of the onset of prolonged depression or stagnation in the United States, correlating them with the Kuznets cycles [4] :
- 1815
- 1836
- 1853
- 1873
- 1882
- 1892
- 1907
- 1920
- 1929
As can be seen from this list, a clear periodicity is not observed, so the researchers take an average value of 15-20 years. The situation is similar for other indicators related to labor and production, cited by Abramowitz.
Notes
- ↑ Kuznets S. Secular Movements in Production and Prices. Their Nature and their Bearing upon Cyclical Fluctuations . Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1930.
- ↑ See, for example: Forrester JW New Perspectives on Economic Growth. Alternatives to Growth - A Search for Sustainable Futures / Ed. by DL Meadows. Cambridge, MA: Ballinger, 1977. P. 107-121.
- ↑ See, for example: Korotayev AV, Tsirel SV A Spectral Analysis of World GDP Dynamics: Kondratieff Waves, Kuznets Swings, Juglar and Kitchin Cycles in Global Economic Development, and the 2008-2009 Economic Crisis . Structure and Dynamics . 2010. Vol. 4. #one. P.3-57; an abridged Russian translation, see, for example: Korotaev A.V. , Tsirel S.V. Kondratyev waves in world economic dynamics // System Monitoring. Global and Regional Development / Ed. D.A. Khalturin , A.V. Korotaev . M .: Librocom / URSS, 2009. ISBN 978-5-397-00917-1 . S. 189—229.
- ↑ Abramovitz, M. (1961) The Nature and Significance of Kuznets Cycles, Economic Development and Cultural Change, April