| Business cycles | |
| Cycle name | Characteristic period |
|---|---|
| Kitchin cycle | 3-4 years |
| Juglar cycle | 7-11 years old |
| The Blacksmith's Cycle | 15-25 years old |
| Kondratiev cycle | 45-60 years old |
The cycles of Juglar are medium-term economic cycles with a characteristic period of 7-11 years. Named after the French economist Clement Juglard , one of the first to describe these cycles [1] . In contrast to Kitschin’s cycles, within the framework of the Juglar cycles, we observe fluctuations not only in the level of utilization of existing production capacities (and, accordingly, in the volume of inventories), but also fluctuations in the volume of investments in fixed assets. As a result, to the time delays characteristic of Kitchin's cycles, there are also added time delays between the adoption of investment decisions and the erection of the corresponding production capacities (as well as between the erection and the actual launch of the corresponding capacities). An additional delay is formed between the decline in demand and the elimination of the corresponding production capacities. These circumstances determine the fact that the characteristic period of the Juglar cycles is noticeably longer than the characteristic period of Kitchin's cycles. Cyclical economic crises / recessions can be considered as one of the phases of the Juglard cycle (along with the phases of recovery, recovery, and depression). At the same time, the depth of these crises depends on the phase of the Kondratieff wave [2] .
In his work, Juglar gives the following data on crises in France, Britain and the USA [3] :
- 1803-1804
- 1810-1810
- 1813-1815-1814
- 1818-1818-1818
- 1826-1826-1826
- 1830-1830-1830
- 1836-1837-1837
- 1839-1839-1839
- 1847-1847-1848
- 1857-1857-1857
Since no clear periodicity is observed, an average value of 7-10 years was taken. Due to the resonance (acceleration) or dissonance (deceleration) of Kitchin cycle vectors.
Juglar Cycle Phases
In the Juglar cycle, four phases are quite often distinguished, in which some researchers distinguish subphases:
- revitalization phase (start and acceleration sub-phases);
- phase of rise, or prosperity (subphase of growth and overheating, or boom);
- recession phase (sub-phases of collapse / acute crisis and recession);
- phase of depression, or stagnation (stabilization and shift subphases) [4] .
The phases of rise (peak) and depression (bottom) traditionally coincide with the extremum of subphases - Kitchin cycles .
Notes
- ↑ Des Crises commerciales et leur retour periodique en France, en Angleterre, et aux Etats-Unis . Paris: Guillaumin, 1862.
- ↑ See, for example: Korotayev , Andrey V., & Tsirel, Sergey V. A Spectral Analysis of World GDP Dynamics: Kondratieff Waves, Kuznets Swings, Juglar and Kitchin Cycles in Global Economic Development, and the 2008-2009 Economic Crisis . Structure and Dynamics . 2010. Vol. 4. #one. P.3-57; see also: Grinin L. E. , Korotaev A. V. Global Crisis in Retrospect: From Lycurgus to Alan Greenspan. M .: URSS, 2010 . Archived February 17, 2012.
- ↑ Juglar C. Des Crises Commercials Et De Leur Retour Periodique En France. Paris, 1862
- ↑ Grinin L.E. , Malkov S. Yu. , Korotaev A.V. 'A mathematical model of the medium-term economic cycle and the current global crisis // Malkov S. Yu. , Grinin L.E. , Korotaev A.V. (ed. ), History and Mathematics: Evolutionary historical macrodynamics. Moscow: Book House LIBROCOM, 2010. P. 233–284
See also
- Conjuncture