Cliodynamics is an interdisciplinary field of research focused on the mathematical modeling of socio-historical processes [1] [2] .
The name comes from the name of Clio - the muse of history and heroic poetry in Greek mythology. The term was proposed by P.V. Turchin in 2003 [3] [4] .
Among scientists, cliodynamics has not received general recognition and is a controversial discussion approach [1] [5] [6] .
Content
General information
The main task of cliodynamics is to identify and study historical patterns based on the analysis of long-term social processes. According to the publications of the founders of cliodynamics, to date, the main achievements can be considered the development of mathematical models of “secular” socio-demographic cycles [7] and quite successful mathematical modeling of the long-term development of the World System [8] .
According to P.V. Turchin, cliodynamics grows out of cliometry , needs it as a supplier of “raw materials”, empirical data, but cliometry also requires a discipline similar to cliodynamics, as a source of theories and models that guide empirical research.
According to the publication of the scientific journalist Laura Spinney in Nature , the majority of historians are very skeptical of cliodynamics, evaluate the prospects of cliodynamics critically and are not sure of the possibility of the successful application of its methods in historical science [1] . Some, like Sergei Kapitsa , emphasized that “the general issues of applying mathematics methods to social phenomena also require more attention and understanding” and in many cases “we can only talk about high-quality,“ soft “modeling” [9] . The California-based The Institute for Research on World-Systems maintains a scientific journal dedicated to cliodynamics, whose editorial board includes Randall Collins and Christopher Chase-Dunn in [10] [11] .
See also
- Historical dynamics
- " Laws of history "
- Quantitative Estimates in History
- Psychohistory - a fictional science from the cycle " Foundation " by Isaac Asimov
Notes
- ↑ 1 2 3 Laura Spinney. Human cycles: History as science (Eng.) // Nature. - 2012.
- ↑ Massimo Pigliucci. Nonsense on Stilts: How to Tell Science from Bunk. - University of Chicago Press, 2010 .-- 338 p.
- ↑ Peter Turchin Arise cliodynamics , 2008 Nature (3 July 2008)
- ↑ History as science Archived January 20, 2013 to Wayback Machine // Santa Fe Institute Bulletin, 2011
- ↑ PÉTER SZABÓ and RADIM HÉDL “Advancing the Integration of History and Ecology for Conservation,” Conservation Biology, Vol. 25, No. 4 (August 2011), pp. 682
- ↑ E. Belyaev. Is Russia really approaching decay, as mathematicians predict? 1 , 2
- ↑ Nefyodov S. A. The concept of demographic cycles. - Yekaterinburg: Publishing House of the Ural State Municipal University, 2007; Korotaev A.V., Komarova N.L., Khalturina D.A. Laws of history. Centuries-old cycles and millennial trends. Demography, economics, wars . 2nd ed. - M .: " URSS ", 2007; Turchin P.V. Historical Dynamics: Towards Theoretical History . - M .: "URSS", 2007; Malkov S. Yu. Mathematical modeling of historical dynamics: approaches and models // Modeling of socio-political and economic dynamics. Ed. M. G. Dmitriev. - M.: Publishing House of the Russian State Social University, 2004. - S. 76-188.
- ↑ Korotaev A.V. , Malkov A.S., Khalturina D.A. Laws of history. Mathematical modeling of the development of the World System. Demography, economics, culture . 2nd ed. - M .: " URSS ", 2007. - ISBN 978-5-484-00957-2 ; Tsirel S.V. Historical time and the paths of historical evolution. Article I. History and Mathematics. Models and Theories / Ed. L. E. Grinin , A. V. Korotaev, S. Yu. Malkov. M .: LKI, 2008, p. 246-278; Kapitsa S.P. General theory of human growth: How many people lived, lives and will live on Earth Archived on February 17, 2016. . M .: Nauka, 1999. ISBN 5-02-008299-6
- ↑ Kapitsa S.P. Essay on the Theory of Human Growth: The Demographic Revolution and the Information Society Archived March 4, 2014 on Wayback Machine . M .: Nikitsky club, 2008.S. 56.
- ↑ Welcome to IROWS
- ↑ Cliodynamics: The Journal of Theoretical and Mathematical History [eScholarship]
Literature
- Huseynova A. S., Pavlovsky Yu. N. , Ustinov V. A. Experience of imitation modeling of the historical process. - M .: "Science", 1984.
- Korotaev A.V. , Malkov A.S. , Khalturina D.A. Laws of history . Mathematical modeling of the development of the World System. Demography, economics, culture . 2nd ed. - M .: " URSS ", 2007. - ISBN 978-5-484-00957-2 .
- Korotaev A.V. , Komarova N.L., Khalturina D.A. Laws of history . Centuries-old cycles and millennial trends. Demography, economics, wars . 2nd ed. - M .: " URSS ", 2007.
- Malkov S. Yu. Mathematical modeling of historical dynamics: approaches and models // Modeling of socio-political and economic dynamics. Ed. M. G. Dmitriev. - M.: Publishing House of the Russian State Social University, 2004. - S. 76-188.
- Nefyodov S. A. The concept of demographic cycles. - Yekaterinburg: Publishing House of the USMU, 2007.
- Turchin P.V. Historical Dynamics: Towards Theoretical History . - M .: "URSS", 2007. ISBN 978-5-382-00104-3 .
- Korotaev A.V. et al. Laws of History : Mathematical Modeling and Forecasting of World and Regional Development . Ed. 3, n. reslave. and add. M .: URSS, 2010.
- Rozov N.S. Cliodynamics without mathematics: methods and tools of historical macroscociology.// Method: Moscow Yearbook of works from social sciences: Sat. scientific tr Vol. 2. - M .: Institute of Scientific Information on Social Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 2011.
- Fedulin A. A., Bagdasaryan V. E. Clinodynamic parameters of service development in Russia. - M .: FSBEI HPE "Russian State University of Tourism and Service", 2011.
Links
- Turchin's video lecture on cliodynamics
- Cliodynamics: news, articles, in the media
- Cliodynamics: The Journal of Theoretical and Mathematical History - “ Cliodynamics: A Journal of Theoretical and Mathematical History ”
- Russian Cliodynamics // Expert No. 16 (799) / April 23, 2012
- Introduction to the thermodynamics of complex systems