The Turin scale or the Torino scale is a table showing the degree of danger emanating from a particular celestial object (for example, an asteroid ). The scale has a subjective rating, which differs, for example, from the Palermo scale .
Content
Description
The Turin scale uses values from 0 to 10. 0 means that the probability of an object colliding with the Earth is so small that it falls into observation errors. 10 means that collision is inevitable, and it will lead to global consequences. In general, the magnitude of the hazard on the Turin scale is determined based on the mathematical probability of a collision and the kinetic energy of the collision.
It is important to note that too small objects are not included in the rating on a scale, due to combustion in the Earth’s atmosphere, even at a 100% chance of collision.
The Turin scale was created by Professor Richard Binzel of the Department of Earth, Atmosphere, and Planetology at the University of Massachusetts . The first version of the scale was called the “Hazard index of objects approaching the Earth” and was presented at a UN conference in 1995 and published in conference proceedings [1] .
A revised version of the scale was presented during the international conference on near-Earth objects , held in June 1999 in Turin ( Italy ). Conference participants voted in favor of adopting the presented revised version of the scale, as well as for endowing the scale with its current name (“Turin scale”) in recognition of the spirit of international cooperation shown at this conference in the study of threats posed by near-Earth objects [2] .
Turin scale
| White zone (no risk): Events without consequences. | |
|---|---|
| 0. | The probability of collision is zero, or so low that it can be considered zero. This also applies to small objects such as, for example, meteors and bodies that burn in the atmosphere, and rare meteorites reaching the surface, but rarely causing damage. |
| Green Zone (Normal): Events warranting careful verification. | |
| one. | The ordinary discovery of a space object, the movement of which does not pose any danger to the Earth. Calculations show that the likelihood of a collision is extremely low, and there is no reason to sharpen public attention and concern. New observations are likely to reassign this event to level 0. |
| Yellow zone (close attention of astronomers): Events worthy of concern. | |
| 2. | The discovery, which could lead to the creation of a program for an advanced search for an object passing though quite close to the Earth, but not representing something very unusual. While astronomers deserve the attention, there is no reason to sharpen public attention and concern, since the probability of a collision is very low. New telescopic observations are likely to reassign this event to level 0. |
| 3. | Close proximity deserving the attention of astronomers. Calculations give 1% and a greater probability of a collision that can cause local damage on the surface of the Earth. It is most likely that new telescopic observations will transfer this event to level 0. The event deserves the attention of the public and government officials if rapprochement occurs over the next decade. |
| four. | Close proximity deserving the attention of astronomers. Calculations give 1% and a greater probability of a collision that can cause the devastation of a significant area of the Earth’s surface. It is most likely that new telescopic observations will transfer this event to level 0. The event deserves the attention of the public and government officials if rapprochement occurs over the next decade. |
| Orange Zone (Threat): Threatening events. | |
| five. | Close rapprochement, representing a serious but still vague threat of local devastation. Critical attention of astronomers - it is necessary to finally determine whether a collision will occur. If a clash occurs over the next decade, the development of government contingency plans should be guaranteed. |
| 6. | Close proximity to a large object, representing a serious but still vague threat of global catastrophe. Critical attention of astronomers - it is necessary to finally determine whether a collision will occur. If the collision occurs in less than three decades, the development of government contingency plans should be guaranteed. |
| 7. | A very close rapprochement with a large object, which should happen in the next century, representing an unprecedented, but still vague threat of global catastrophe. In the event of a threat in the next century, the development by international organizations of emergency plans and an urgent final conclusion should be guaranteed: whether a collision occurs or not. |
| Red Zone: Inevitable clashes. | |
| eight. | An inevitable collision that can cause local impact surface destruction in the event of a fall to land or a tsunami, if the object falls near the shore. Such events occur on average once every 50-1000 years. |
| 9. | An inevitable collision that could cause an unprecedented devastation of an entire region if an object falls on land, or the threat of an extensive tsunami if it falls into the ocean. Such events occur on average once every 10,000 - 100,000 years. |
| ten. | An inevitable collision that could cause a global climate catastrophe that could threaten the future of civilization in its current form, regardless of where the fall occurs - into the ocean or on land. Such events occur on average once every 100,000 years or even less frequently. |
Some asteroids rated on a scale of
Nonzero value [3]
- As of June 14, 2018, there are no asteroids that have reached nonzero values. [3]
Reduced to zero [3]
- Asteroid (99942) Apophis initially received 4 on the Turin scale. Subsequently, the risk was reduced first to 1, then to 0.
- Asteroid (144898) 2004 VD17 April 17, 2006 had 2 points on the Turin scale. [4] Later, the risk was reduced to 0.
- A large number of asteroids translated from 1 to 0 on the Turin scale.
See also
- Asteroids approaching the Earth
- Asteroid Apophis
- Asteroid Protection
- Palermo scale
Notes
- ↑ Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, volume 822, 1997
- ↑ NASA Ames. Torino Impact Scale . Archived February 24, 2007.
- ↑ 1 2 3 Current Impact Risks
- ↑ 2004 VD17 Impact Risk
Links
- The Torino Scale
- The Torino Impact Hazard Scale (NASA)
- Torino Scale (image)
- Lecture "Asteroid-comet hazard: myths and reality" 12.19.2012 Shustov B. M. ( video , lecture at the Moscow Planetarium).