Consequences of the armed conflict in South Ossetia (2008)

August

August 16

On August 16, a railway bridge in Kaspi was blown up 45 kilometers west of Tbilisi. Georgian Interior Ministry spokesman Shota Utiashvili said that this was done by Russian troops. Eyewitnesses reported people in camouflage who drove in a jeep, planted explosives under the bridge and blew it up. ^{[2] [3]}

The representative of the Russian General Staff denied reports that Russian troops after the end of hostilities blew up the bridge at a distance of 45 kilometers from Tbilisi.

On August 16, The Times reported that under the terms of the armistice, Russian troops received the right to patrol Georgian territory to a depth of 10 km from the border with South Ossetia ^[4] .

August 17th

According to some reports, Russia began the withdrawal of troops from South Ossetia, ^[5] but the Russian Defense Ministry denied reports of the withdrawal of troops. ^[6] Dmitry Medvedev then announced that the withdrawal of troops from Georgia would begin on August 18. ^[7]

South Ossetian troops entered Akhalgori and, thus, all of South Ossetia within the borders of the South Ossetian Autonomous Region became controlled by the authorities of the republic, including the Georgian enclaves.

August 19th

Reuters reported that Russian troops began to leave the Georgian city of Gori ^[8] .

August 20

President of South Ossetia E. Kokoity signed a decree lifting the state of emergency in South Ossetia. According to the chairman of the Committee on Information and Press of South Ossetia, Irina Gagloeva, this was done “in connection with the stabilization of the situation in the republic and the improvement of the criminal situation”, as well as due to the “lack of threat to the residents of the republic”. ^[9]

August 21

An Interfax correspondent said that a convoy of Russian military equipment withdrawn from Gori proceeded through Tskhinvali in the direction of Vladikavkaz on the morning of August 21. ^[10] A representative of the RF Ministry of Defense said that the withdrawal of units of the Russian 58th army from Georgia had begun. ^[eleven]

Anatoly Nogovitsyn , deputy chief of the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces, said that in the interests of ensuring the safety of the civilian population, it is planned to post additional peacekeeping observation posts in the Abkhaz direction in the near future. ^[12]

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that no more than 500 Russian peacekeepers will remain at 8 posts in the security zone in South Ossetia. “All other forces that were sent for reinforcement will be withdrawn: peacekeepers - in the territory of South Ossetia, and units and subunits assigned to them - to areas in the territory of the Russian Federation," S. Lavrov said. ^[13]

Russian Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov said: “ According to the order of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, on Friday, August 22, at 6:00 a.m., all Russian military units assigned to the peacekeeping contingent in the Georgian-South Ossetian conflict zone will begin their nomination from Georgian territory to South Ossetia. (...) During the day of August 22 the withdrawal of all these units from the territory of Georgia will be completed. (...) Within the security zone established in accordance with the principles of the settlement, which Russia scrupulously follows, there will remain only Russian peacekeepers located in specially equipped posts in the quantity necessary to ensure security . ” ^[fourteen]

August 22

The representative of the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces said that Russia will put up 18 peacekeeping posts in Abkhazia. ^[fifteen]

In the evening, Russian media reported that Russian Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov reported to the President of Russia that at 19:50 Moscow time, the withdrawal of parts of the Russian army from the territory of Georgia had been completed, which had been assigned to the peacekeeping contingent during the operation to force Georgia to peace ” ^{[16] [ 17]} : “The withdrawal of the units passed without incident and was completed according to the plan by 19.50 Moscow time. <...> Thus, the Russian side complied with the agreements fixed in the Moscow plan of Medvedev-Sarkozy. ” ^[18]

Russian troops left Gori ^[19]

Around noon, Central American Summertime, the White House spokesman said in response to reporters, in particular ^[20] : “The President had a telephone conversation with French President Sarkozy. <...> They exchanged assessments of the situation in Georgia. Both agreed that Russia does not comply and that Russia should begin to comply now. <...> It is important that she comply with the requirements to which she agreed in the 6-point plan that Sarkozy brought to Medvedev, which was signed by the Russians, signed by the Georgians. So compliance means compliance with this plan. Until we saw this. As I understand it, they have not completely left areas that are not considered as a disputed territory and they must do this. <...> The agreement states that the Russians should withdraw all the troops and weapons that were introduced after August 6. <...> Everything that has entered [Georgia] after August 6 should go out. ”

The representative of the US State Department also added that “the establishment of checkpoints, buffer zones is not included in the agreement.” ^[21]

August 23

Colonel General Nogovitsyn said that Russian units will patrol the Georgian port of Poti , which, in his opinion, is “a form prescribed in an international agreement” ^[22] .

On August 23, the Georgian parliament unanimously supported the extension of martial law declared on August 9 until September 8. “In parallel with the extension of martial law, we remain true to the ceasefire agreement, unlike the Russian Federation, which systematically violates this agreement,” said Georgian Minister of Justice Nika Gvaramia . ^[23]

Explosions of captured ammunition occurred in Tskhinvali . Fire engines drove to the scene of the incident ^[24] .

August 24th

At noon, the media and command of the US Navy reported ^{[25] [26]} that the USS McFaul 6th fleet destroyer with humanitarian aid for Georgia had arrived in Batumi port; Two more US Navy ships were expected to arrive: the USCGC Dallas patrol boat and the USS Mount Whitney 6th fleet command ship as part of the US Armed Forces Operation Assured Delivery logistics operation.

According to Russian media reports , with the withdrawal of Russian troops from the conflict zone, the Georgian military again began to accumulate at the Georgian-Ossetian border ^[27] .

According to the Georgian Interior Ministry, in the vicinity of Gori , a train carrying fuel was blown up by a mine. RIA Novosti reported a fire at the scene of the explosion ^[28] .

Interfax news agency reported an explosion in the morning of wagons of ammunition at a military base in the village of Skrana in the Gori region of Georgia. As MK reported, the Georgian side claimed that the Russian military was the culprit in the bombing ^[28] .

August 25

The Minister for Special Affairs of the Republic of South Ossetia Boris Chochiev said that Georgian armed forces entered the village of Mosabruni, which is located in the Leningor region of South Ossetia ^[29] ; Shota Utiashvili, the head of the analytical department of the Georgian Ministry of Internal Affairs, told Kommersant ^[30] that the Georgian police did not enter the village of Mosabruni, but stood there all the time, since it was mainly populated by Georgians and was controlled by Tbilisi from the time of the first conflict. For his part, the Deputy Minister of Defense of the Republic of Abkhazia Anatoly Zaitsev said that Georgian troops are concentrated in the direction of the Kodori Gorge ^[31]

Colonel-General Anatoly Nogovitsyn told reporters on August 25 that there are already nine ships of the NATO states in the Black Sea off the coast of Georgia ^{[32] [33]} , which, according to an unnamed military and diplomatic source, RIA Novosti is a NATO naval strike force, which operates under the "plausible pretexts of delivering humanitarian supplies to Georgia or conducting exercises." ^{[30] [34]}

It was also reported that the “Georgian sabotage group” broke into the village of Mosabruni in the Leningor region of the republic during the day and controlled it for several hours ^[35] . The local police confirmed this information ^[36] , but later the Ministry of Emergencies of South Ossetia denied it ^[37] .

August 26

The Georgian side accuses the Ossetian militias of expelling the Georgian population from the villages of Mereti, Megvrekisi, Nikozi , Tkviavi, Disevi. The authorities of South Ossetia did not refute this information. ^[38] Observers of the international human rights organization Human Rights Watch recorded arson of Georgian villages and the expulsion of Georgian residents. ^[39]

August 27

Anatoly Nogovitsyn reported that Russian peacekeepers put up an additional post at the village of Mosabruni ^[40] . According to Reuters ^[41] , Georgian police withdrew from Mosabruni and Russian troops entered it.

A. Nogovitsyn also said that in addition to the nine ships of NATO member states that have already entered the Black Sea, eight more ships are expected to arrive ^[42] .

The head of the Navy’s information service, Captain 1st Rank Igor Dygalo, said that a detachment of ships of the Black Sea Fleet, led by the Moscow guards missile cruiser, which left Sevastopol on August 25 ^[32] , arrived at the port of Sukhumi on August 27 at the port of Abkhazia ^[43] . As reported, the fleet entered Sukhumi to track NATO ships ^[44] .

According to A. Nogovitsyn, on August 27 at 15.15 Moscow time over South Ossetia a flight of a Georgian unmanned reconnaissance aircraft was recorded ^[45] .

August 28

According to the statement and. about. Head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of South Ostetia M. Mindzaev, on August 28, an unmanned Georgian reconnaissance aircraft was shot down over the territory of South Ossetia, the flight of which from Tskhinvali from the south to the north was fixed at 00.10 Moscow time ^[46] . The Georgian side, represented by the head of the information and analytical department of the Georgian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Sh. Utiashvili, has denied this statement ^[47] .

August 29th

Nezavisimaya Gazeta wrote, according to the Georgian press, as well as on the statement of independent expert Mamuk Areshidze, about the stimulation by the Russian military of separatist sentiments in Javakhetia of the expected destabilization also in other regions of Georgia. One of the leaders of the Armenian diaspora, Advisor to the President of Georgia Van Bayburt, called these publications provocative. ^[48] .

Georgian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigol Vashadze announced the termination of diplomatic relations with the Russian Federation while maintaining consular relations in pursuance of the decision adopted by the Georgian parliament on the eve of which he “instructed the executive branch to terminate diplomatic relations with the Russian Federation.” ^[49]

August 30

The apparatus of the Georgian state minister for reintegration announced the Moscow agreement on ceasefire and separation of forces on May 14, 1994 as null and void ^[50] . Georgia has abolished the facilitated visa issuance procedure for Russians at checkpoints ^[51] .

September 2008

On September 1, 2008, the Georgian authorities announced the termination of the Russian peacekeeping mission in the territory of Abkhazia and declared the need to withdraw all peacekeeping units from the territory of Abkhazia ^[52] .

Georgia unilaterally withdrew from a number of agreements to resolve the conflict in South Ossetia, in particular:

• the Georgian side withdrew from the Joint Control Commission (CCM) , established on the basis of the 1992 agreement;
• the commission itself, the documents adopted within the framework of the JCC, as well as the mandate of the Joint Peacekeeping Forces (JPKF) were canceled .

On September 2, Georgian State Minister for Reintegration Temur Yakobashvili said that the Russian military in Georgia had finally lost the status of peacekeepers and should immediately leave the territory of the republic (including the territory of Abkhazia and South Ossetia) ^[53] . Georgia officially notified the Russian Federation of the termination of diplomatic relations with it ^[54] . Russian President D. Medvedev expressed his position with regard to the leadership of the Republic of Georgia: “As for the Georgian authorities, the current regime has gone bankrupt for us, President Mikhail Saakashvili does not exist for us, he is a“ political corpse. ” ^[55]

On September 3, the Russian embassy in Georgia was closed, including its consular department ^{[56] [57]} .

At an emergency meeting, the Parliament of Georgia canceled the martial law and general mobilization in force on August 9 throughout Georgia, at the same time introducing a state of emergency in the regions where Russian troops are deployed ^[58] .

On September 4, it was reported that Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili signed a decree on the return of a facilitated visa issuance procedure to Russians at checkpoints, canceled on August 30. ^[59]

On September 9 , after an exchange of notes on the establishment of diplomatic relations, S. Lavrov explained the status of her military contingent assumed by Russia in the territory of Abkhazia and South Ossetia: “Now they are in the territory of Abkhazia and South Ossetia on the basis of a decree of the President of the Russian Federation . With the signing and ratification of treaties, they will be on an international legal basis. It will not be peacekeepers, but military contingents of a foreign state, ensuring the security of the host country at its request. ” ^{[60] [61]}

On September 10, 2008, according to the official information of the Georgian Foreign Ministry, “at 10:15 this morning, shots were fired at a Georgian police post from a Russian checkpoint near the entrance to the village of Karaleti. Georgian policeman Kakha Tsotniashvili was wounded in the head and throat and died shortly afterwards in the hospital. There was no return fire from the Georgian side. <...> " ^[62]

September 13 reported the start of the withdrawal of Russian troops from the Georgian port of Poti ^[63] . By the end of the day, the Russian Foreign Ministry said that the Russian peacekeepers “removed their posts on the Poti-Senaki line and left Georgia in accordance with the agreements reached between the Presidents of Russia and France Dmitry Medvedev and Nicolas Sarkozy on September 8.” ^[64]

On September 23, 2008, the first group of 28 European Union observers arrived in Georgia; Until October 1, 200 EU observers should be deployed in areas adjacent to Abkhazia and South Ossetia in accordance with the agreement on ending the Russian-Georgian conflict ^[65] .

On September 27, 2008, speaking at the 63rd session of the UN General Assembly , Russian Foreign Minister S. Lavrov , in particular, noted: “The recognition by Russia of South Ossetia and Abkhazia was the only possible measure to ensure not only their security, but also the survival of their peoples, taking into account all the experience of the chauvinistic attitude of the Georgian leaders <...> " ^[66]

October 2008

On October 1, an observer mission from the European Union in Georgia (EUMM) began to work in the conflict zone (along the borders of Abkhazia and South Ossetia) in order to monitor the observance of the ceasefire, that is, the withdrawal of Russian troops from the Georgian regions adjacent to the republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia until 10 October 2008 ^[67] . According to Kommersant ^[68] and the BBC ^[69] , the movement of a party of 20 observers who left Gori in the direction of the Georgian village of Karaleti, which is located 4 km from the administrative border of South Ossetia, was initially prevented by the military at the Russian checkpoint. Shota Utiashvili, head of the information and analytical department of the Georgian Ministry of Internal Affairs, said ^[68] that many monitoring groups were not allowed into the buffer zones by the Russian military at all; his message was confirmed by newspaper sources in the leadership of Abkhazia and South Ossetia ^[68]

On October 3, seven Russian servicemen were killed and another 7 were injured in a car explosion at the headquarters of peacekeepers in Tskhinvali ^[70] ; it was reported that the car exploded shortly before that was confiscated in the Georgian village of Ditsi ^[70] . Among the dead, according to Kommersant newspaper on October 4, citing the head of the South Ossetian Interior Ministry, Mikhail Mindzaev, was Ivan Petrik, head of the joint peacekeeping force headquarters in the South Ossetian-Georgian conflict, who was killed by fragments in his office: a car exploded under his window ^[71] . E. Kokoity accused the Georgian special services of the incident ^[70] . The head of the information and analytical department of the Georgian Interior Ministry, Shota Utiashvili, told the newspaper: “It seems to us that this is organized by the Russian special services. The Russian military must leave Georgia by October 10 and are now looking for an excuse not to withdraw their troops. ” ^[71]

On October 5, the withdrawal of Russian troops from the buffer zone around South Ossetia began ^[72] . The governor of Shida-Kartli, a neighboring region of South Ossetia, Vladimir Vardzelashvili told the Kommersant newspaper: “Out of eight checkpoints of Russian troops in the Gori, Karelian and Sachkher regions of Georgia, two have already been eliminated on Sunday - in the villages of Sachkher district Ali and Jvari north-west of South Ossetia. " ^[73]

On October 8, 2008, Russian troops completely left the buffer zone separating South Ossetia and Abkhazia from the uncontested territory of Georgia ^[74] .

The negotiations on the conflict in the South Caucasus and the provision of security measures in the region, stipulated by the Medvedev-Sarkozy plan, were disrupted in Geneva on October 15, 2008 due to the position of the Georgian leadership, who did not want to participate in consultations with representatives of Abkhazia and South Ossetia on an equal footing. ^{[75] [76]} .

Geneva discussions

Holding international discussions on the status of Abkhazia and South Ossetia was outlined in the Medvedev-Sarkozy plan. On September 8, the exact start date for these discussions was October 15.

However, the first meeting scheduled for this number was actually a failure. Georgian delegates refused to sit at the negotiating table with representatives of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. After a statement about this, the head of the Abkhaz Foreign Ministry defiantly left the meeting. Then, the Georgian and Russian delegations left the room, shifting responsibility for breaking negotiations.

In order to prevent a similar situation at the second meeting on November 18, the Europeans proposed the following format of work: two working groups were organized, representatives of different countries participate in them without signs on which their country would be indicated. One group deals with stability and security in the region, the other has the issue of refugees and humanitarian assistance as its field of work. This allowed discussions, but no specific decisions were made. However, the fact that the parties met in one place and discussed controversial issues is undoubted success.

The Swiss newspaper Tribune de Genève was very positive about holding this meeting. Very high hopes were pinned on these negotiations. It is noted that for the first time after the severance of diplomatic relations, representatives of Georgia and Russia will gather at the same table. “At the same time, the hostilities ended, and most of the Russian troops retreated to South Ossetia. This is a great chance! A very good start ” ^[77] , the newspaper quotes Daniel Varne, who is a professor at the Institute for International Research and Development.

The third round of the Geneva discussions took place on December 17-18. During this stage, various conflict prevention mechanisms outlined by Europeans in the draft document “Prevention of Incidents and Conflicts” were discussed. However, specific agreements could not be worked out.

Within the framework of this meeting, the first working group discussed issues of stability and security in the region, possible mechanisms for the prevention and resolution of conflicts. However, no formal agreement was worked out, so this issue was to be raised again at the next meeting.

The second working group discussed refugee status. The discussions focused on specific measures aimed at improving the situation of these people, especially by launching new economic programs, as well as providing humanitarian assistance. The participants agreed on the need to arrange the supply of gas, water and electricity to areas affected by the conflict.

No matter how hard France, the EU, the OSCE and the UN tried to insist on discussing the status of the newly recognized republics, it was clear that a change in the situation could not be achieved. This can be clearly seen from the statement of the Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov “this event is not a conference, but a discussion. In addition, the status of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, according to him, is “clarified once and for all” ^[78] .

So here you can see that the French failed to fulfill their main goal at this stage - the recognition of independence by Russia is final and irrevocable.

Finally, on February 17-18, the final 4 round of negotiations took place in Geneva. Its main result was that for the first time it was possible to adopt a specific document providing for certain mechanisms to ensure interaction in the region. Although the adopted document is not legally binding, its significance is important. According to its terms, weekly meetings of representatives of structures involved in ensuring security in the conflict zone will be held. This will help them coordinate actions, share assessments and forecasts.

“The mechanisms provide for the participation of representatives of structures responsible for security and public order in the relevant areas. That is, on our territory we have in mind the relevant structures of South Ossetia and the Russian Federation, which are here under a bilateral agreement and at the request of South Ossetia, on the Georgian side - the corresponding structures of Georgia. Representatives of international organizations are also expected to participate “ ^[79] ,” says Murat Dzhioev , Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of South Ossetia, on the agreement.

For Russia and Georgia

According to the OSCE , which was expressed on August 9, 2008 by Finnish Foreign Minister Alexander Stubb, who chairs the OSCE, Russia ceased to be a mediator in the South Ossetian settlement and instead became one of the parties to the conflict. ^{[80] [81]}

The Russian political scientist, Doctor of Historical Sciences A. Arbatov , stating on August 12 that Russia in the conflict between Georgia and South Ossetia “misinterpreted its intermediary role”, expressed the opinion about the possible consequences of the war: “<...> If the goal is to change the regime, then the consequences will be bad for Russia. Change of regime is the business of the Georgian people. Already now we see that Russia in the Security Council has remained in the minority. Even China has taken a neutral position. So Russia needs to keep this in mind. She will remain a minority in the world around her. And nobody will support us, as many CIS countries have similar problems. " Regarding the consequences for Georgia, he suggested that “Georgia will have to say goodbye to claims to Ossetia after these barbaric actions. It was necessary to think about this in advance. Probably, Georgia thought that they would solve everything very quickly with their war: but this option always looks good on paper, but in fact it turns out exactly the opposite. I don’t exclude that ultimately a peaceful mutually acceptable settlement will be adopted, but it’s hard for me to imagine, after all that has happened, that South Ossetia will agree to stay in Georgia. ” ^[82]

On August 12, Senator Joseph Biden , chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Commission of the United States , believed ^[83] that “Russia could be the party that will lose most if the war continues,” emphasizing that the conflict between Russia and the United States in the field of nuclear energy could be a victim ^[84] , the abolition of the Jackson-Vanik amendment , Russia's entry into the WTO , the Sochi Olympics , Putin’s plans to turn Moscow into one of the world’s financial centers .

Deputy Presidential Adviser on National Security, Jim Jeffrey, said that further escalation of the conflict over South Ossetia from the Russian side could seriously complicate Russian-American relations in the long run. ^[85] “ If the disproportionate and dangerous buildup of Russian forces continues, this will significantly affect relations between Russia and the United States for a long time ,” he said. ^[86]

On August 12, Mikheil Saakashvili announced that Georgia was withdrawing from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) . ^[87] On August 14, the Georgian parliament approved this decision - Georgia withdrew from the CIS. ^[88]

On August 14, US congressmen Democrat A. Schwartz and Republican B. Schuster, co-chairs of the Georgia Support Group, announced that Congress had submitted a resolution on the review by the International Olympic Committee of the venue for the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi . “The invasion of the Russian Federation into the Republic of Georgia, which is a sovereign and democratic country, on the eve of the Summer Olympic Games in Beijing makes it (Russia) an undesirable host for the 2014 Winter Games." ^[89]

Former US National Security Advisor to the US President Z. Brzezinski, in Time magazine on August 14, wrote: “The end of the Cold War was intended to mark the advent of a new era in which major powers could no longer dictate to neighboring states how to arrange their lives. That is why the Russian invasion of Georgia is so tragic and potentially sinister. Now Russia is under observation: will it continue to achieve its imperial goals by methods of coercion and force, or is it ready to work inside the nascent system of international relations, in which cooperation and consensus are valued? <...> Now the question is this: will the world community be able to show the Kremlin that it is always necessary to pay for the blatant use of force to achieve imperialist goals that are long gone. <...> If Putin continues the same line, subjugates Georgia and overthrows its president, elected in free elections - and, as we know, the Russian Foreign Minister openly called for this, then the onslaught against Ukraine and other independents, but the remaining vulnerable post-Soviet states will only be a matter of time. “ ^{[90] [91]}

On August 14, Pentagon chief Robert Gates said: “If Russia does not back down from its aggressive stance and actions in Georgia, US-Russian relations can be badly damaged for years.” ^[92]

On August 15, US President George W. Bush declared, inter alia:

In a statement the next day, George W. Bush emphasized the inviolability of Georgia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity:

On August 16, Associated Press commentators wrote: “Russia's attack on Georgia has aroused fears among young democracies in Eastern Europe that Moscow is longing for conquest; and they are in a hurry to defend themselves by strengthening defense alliances with the Western powers. " ^[96]

On August 19, the newspaper Gazeta published an article by B. Sokolov , in which he expressed the opinion that “the current Russian-Georgian war, with its external lightning speed and success for Russia, is most likely a long-term military-political and diplomatic defeat of Moscow . " ^[97]

On August 19, EU High Representative for General Foreign Policy and Security Javier Solana said that the EU will have to reconsider its relations with Russia: “No doubt, the events of recent days force us to reconsider our relations with them, and this will largely depend on how they will be operational in the coming hours. " ^[98] On the same day, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice announced that there was no financial G8 and she doubted that the G8 would ever appear.” ^[99]

On August 20, Russian Foreign Minister S. Lavrov in an article in the Wall Street Journal ^[100] reiterated his earlier thesis that “the United States will have to choose between its virtual Georgian project and a much wider partnership with Russia.” ^[101]

The Vlast magazine of August 25 summed up: “The conflict in Georgia, of course, will greatly damage Russia's reputation. Now no one will convince Europeans that Russia is a reliable partner and energy supplier, and Europe does not need the Nabucco gas pipeline to bypass Russia. From now on, they will seek to build it, no matter what the cost. But the “South Stream” and “Nord Stream” will surely have new problems. ” ^[102]

The Kommersant newspaper dated August 25, 2008, regarding the recognition of the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia by Russia, wrote: “From the point of view of international law, recognition of the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia is fraught with certain problems for Russia. As an informed source in government circles told Kommersant, in Moscow there are no special illusions about the conformity of their actions to the letter of international law. “Having recognized the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, we violate the principle of territorial integrity of the sovereign state of Georgia. In addition, on the situation in Abkhazia, there is a UN Security Council resolution that states that the conflict should be resolved in compliance with the principle of territorial integrity of Georgia. And if Tbilisi goes to court, then the trial will obviously not be in our favor. "" ^[103]

A columnist for the Financial Times wrote on August 28, 2008, in conclusion of his analysis of the situation after “Vladimir Putin’s Russia invaded its neighbor, annexed territory and established a partial military occupation” ^[104] : “I cannot understand what Russia will gain. She has no friends. Both governments and foreign investors now know that her word is worthless. The price of aggression will be pariah status. Mr. Putin, of course, will blame the West. ” ^[104]

On September 1, 2008, the heads of state and government of the EU member states decided to postpone negotiations on the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA) with Russia ^{[105] [106] [107] [108]} .

In the September 1 issue of The New Times , political analyst M. Urnov assessed Russia's geopolitical prospects after the conflict: “Russia cannot secure its position as a pole of the bipolar world. Now we can’t even claim the role of a regional power. We have ceased to be a center of attraction for the countries around us. We have lost a loan of political trust from the countries of Western Europe and the USA. We are indifferent to China, it looks at us as a source of energy, technology, but certainly not a super partner. ” ^[109]

The match of the qualifying tournament of the European Football Championship - 2009 between the youth teams of Russia and Georgia was held on September 5, 2008 on the neutral field of the Tractor stadium in Minsk , and not in Moscow : the match was forcibly postponed from Russia by UEFA officials at the request of Georgia ^[110] . In the qualifying tournament of the European Football Championship - 2012, the national teams of Russia and Georgia were divorced into different groups ^[111] .

In an interview in the Kommersant newspaper dated September 17, 2008, British ambassador Tony Brenton , who was leaving after a trip to Moscow, spoke of possible EU sanctions against Russia: “<...> For some time, G8 events will not be held. " ^[112]

According to a survey conducted by Harris Interactive in England, France , Italy , Spain and Germany every month during the year until September 2008, in August, before the events in Georgia, only 4% of respondents considered Russia the greatest threat to global stability; in September, with 17%, Russia came in third on the overall list, ahead of Iran (14%) and closer to China (21%) ^[113] . Similar polls in the United States showed that in early August, 2% considered Russia to be the greatest threat, in September - 13% of Americans ^[113] .

A. Malashenko in Nezavisimaya Gazeta on October 8, 2008 wrote that Moscow’s recognition of the independence of the Georgian regions has the potential to stimulate separatist sentiments in the North Caucasus region of Russia ^[114] .

For Ukraine and other CIS countries

On August 10, 2008, the former US ambassador to the United Nations, Richard Holbrooke, believed that Russia had provoked Georgia and deliberately timed it to the Olympic Games to overthrow the Georgian government and that Ukraine would be the next target for Russia ^[115] .

An editorial in the Financial Times of August 19, 2008, in connection with harsh statements by the Russian leadership on the eve of ^[116] wrote: “A clear signal for Georgia and other pro-Western former Soviet republics, like Ukraine, and for NATO, Russia can behave like she likes in her “near abroad”. She has superior military strength and is ready to use it. The next goal may well be the Ukrainian Crimea, where the Russian-speaking population can easily be persuaded to secede. ” ^[117]

The Financial Times of August 20, 2008 quoted market analysts regarding the impact of the conflict in Georgia on the cost of servicing Ukrainian debt: “The market became more and more nervous as the Russians refused to leave Georgia. As the conflict dragged on, the intransigence of the Russians led many investors to believe that Ukraine would be next on their firing list, as it owns a key strategic asset in the form of the Crimea, where the Russian Black Sea Fleet is based. ” ^[118]

On August 23, 2008, in an interview with The Times newspaper , Ukrainian President V. Yushchenko, in response to a journalist’s question about how he “intends to protect the independence of Ukraine” in the light of “Russian intervention in Georgia,” in particular, said ^{[119] [120]} : “The main lesson of Georgia is that no single model of national security can guarantee the protection of national sovereignty. Only collective security can ensure peace and stability and repel aggression. Ukraine should move towards the NATO alliance. For our country, this is the only way to protect our security and sovereignty. <...> I believe that NATO member states will now support Ukraine’s aspirations to receive invitations to the Membership Action Plan during the December meeting of the Union’s ministers. This is very important both for the union and Ukraine. We share common values ​​and shared responsibility. ”

On August 24, speaking in front of the first military parade since 2001 on the occasion of Independence Day of Ukraine, V. Yushchenko, in particular, said ^[121] : “We must accelerate the work on gaining membership in the pan-European security system and increasing the defense capability of our country. Only these steps effectively guarantee our security, the inviolability of our borders and the integrity of our land. Everyone who cares about Ukraine should say frankly: membership in the Euro-Atlantic security system is the only way to fully protect the lives and welfare of our families, children and grandchildren. ” The Times newspaper dated August 25, 2008 in connection with the speech of the President of Ukraine noted ^{[122 ]} : “Kiev fears that the Kremlin will foment separatist sentiments in the pro-Russian region of Crimea in order to thwart its entry [into NATO], just as it fomented tension in the breakaway regions of Georgia - Abkhazia and South Ossetia.”

On August 27, French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner stated that “Ukrainian Crimea and Moldova” would be likely targets for further actions by the Russian leadership, which he considered “very dangerous” ^[123] .

The Vlast magazine of September 1, 2008 ^[124] considered: “It is not by chance that Europe and the United States fear that after the conflict with Georgia, Russia will take over Ukraine in order to try to return it to the orbit of its influence. The pro-Western Ukrainian leader, Viktor Yushchenko, annoys the Kremlin no less than Mikhail Saakashvili. <...> Apparently, the support of all kinds of Ukrainian separatists is likely to only increase. ”

Political analyst A. Piontkovsky on September 2 wrote about the significance for the CIS of Russia's recognition of independence of Georgia’s enclaves on August 26, 2008: “On August 26, the state borders of all 12 CIS countries lost their legitimacy overnight. These former internal administrative lines of the Soviet Union were turned into state borders in December 1991 by mutual unanimous agreement of the USSR heirs. On August 26, one of 12 countries unilaterally destroyed this consent. ” ^[125]

On September 5, 2008, US Vice President Dick Cheney, visiting Kiev, said: “Ukrainians have the right to choose whether they want to become members of NATO, and NATO should invite Ukraine to become a member of the Alliance when we see that you are ready and when the time will come. ” ^[126]

On September 9, 2008, a Ukraine- EU summit was held in Paris, at which the European Union for the first time officially recognized Ukraine’s European aspirations, and also stated that “Ukraine is a European country.” ^[127] It was announced that Ukraine and the European Union agreed to conclude in 2009 the year of the new enhanced agreement on the principles of the association of Ukraine. ^[128]

In his article, “Ukraine could become Russia's next target,” in the Wall Street Journal dated September 10, 2008, Leon Aron, director of the Russian research program and researcher at the American Enterprise Institute , postulating that “Russia's invasion of Georgia and the continued occupation of the country” were not isolated case, but “the first manifestation of a different and deeply alarming doctrine of national security and foreign policy”, he believed that whatever the specific details of the upcoming, in his opinion, Russian operation against Ukraine in Crimea, “the Russian political matic barometer, apparently predicts coming storm. " ^{[129] [130]}

In an interview with Newsweek magazine on October 6, 2008, Georgian President M. Saakashvili said: “Vladimir Putin does not hide the fact that he most wants the heads of two people: [the Ukrainian president] Viktor Yushchenko and mine. He is proud that he never backs down from his goals. Ukraine is a truly democratic country, and this is what separates and distinguishes it from Russia. ” ^{[131] [132]} .

Belarus

One of the consequences of the conflict between Russia and Georgia was the cautious rapprochement of Belarus with the United States and the European Union ^{[133] [134]} . The International Herald Tribune wrote on September 11, 2008: “While rising Russia is alarmed among its neighbors, there is a thaw in relations between the European Union and Belarus.” ^[135] The publication quoted the London military and international political expert who spoke about A G. Lukashenko : “In the past, he flirted with the idea of ​​opening up to Europe. But usually he does this in order to extract more concessions from Russia. But the war in Georgia became an experience that changed the rules of the game. I do not exclude that he is a little scared. He does not want to be completely under the heel of Russia, and I do not exclude that he might be worried that he is losing his freedom of maneuver. ” ^[135] In an interview with the Financial Times on September 19, A. Lukashenko reacted to the correspondent’s question about“ precedence ” Russia's actions in Georgia: “God forbid Russia will try to do the same with Belarus. In this unbelievable case, Europe will have to give the most severe rebuff to Russia, using all possible means and methods. ” ^[136]

Domestic Political Situation in Russia Due to Conflict

A comparison of the behavior of Russian President D. Medvedev and Russian Prime Minister V. Putin during the conflict led Western observers to ask, “who’s the boss in the Kremlin” ^[137] and come to the answer: “The current conflict has confirmed what has become clearer in recent years of the week: Putin continues to be in charge. ” ^[138] Financial Times commentator Philip Stevens, in a August 29, 2008 issue, called Medvedev the“ nominal president of Russia ”( Dmitry Medvedev, Russian notional president ) ^[139] . The same conclusion was reached by the Russian Newsweek magazine of September 1, 2008 ^[140] and the Vlast magazine from the same date ^[141] . The latter also noted: “The final collapse of hopes for liberalization of the domestic political course that arose in a certain part of Russian society after the election of Dmitry Medvedev as president can be considered as another notable consequence of the Georgian conflict.” ^[141] The New Times magazine commentators on September 1, 2008 expressed a similar assessment situation in the country: “Inside the country, it seems that the choice between reforms and mobilization has been made in favor of the latter. Of course, members of the ruling duumvirate believe that a certain third way is possible, a sort of “mobilization modernization” in conditions of “easy” isolation from key states and institutions of the Western world. And - in the absence of institutions within the country. Of course, this is an illusion. ” ^[142]

It is noteworthy that analyzing the political and economic situation in the country after the conflict with Georgia, Anders Aslund in his article of September 3 never mentions D. Medvedev and speaks of V. Putin as Russia's sole leader: “August 8 stands out as a fatal day for Russia. It marks the greatest mistake Prime Minister Vladimir Putin made. <...> Putin turns Russia into a gangster state. <...> ” ^[143] . The economist Judy Shelton, the author of the book The Coming Soviet Crash , published in 1989 , in the article “The Market Will Punish Putinism” published in the Wall Street Journal dated September 3, 2008: Putin “has to to learn one thing: sometimes the invisible hand of the market strikes back. ” ^{[144] [145]} .

According to the Novaya Gazeta newspaper dated September 1, 2008, on August 29, 2008 activists of the All-Tatar Public Center (WTC) in Kazan held a picket and a round table on the topic "The sovereignty of Tatarstan is just as legitimate as the sovereignty of Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Kosovo." ^[146] .

Political analyst L. F. Shevtsova in the Vedomosti newspaper dated September 17 wrote: “The war between Russia and Georgia in 2008 was the last chord in the formation of the anti-Western state vector and at the same time the finishing touch in consolidating the new system. In the 90s, this system existed as a hybrid in which incompatible things were combined - democracy and autocracy, economic reforms and the expansion of the state, partnership with the West and suspicion of it. From now on, the Russian system becomes unambiguous, and there is no doubt about its qualities and its trajectory. <...> The August events confirmed one simple truth: foreign policy in Russia has become an instrument for implementing the domestic political agenda. <...> So we are not dealing with the war of Russia against Georgia. We are talking about a confrontation between Russia and not even the United States, but with the West, which is caused not so much by differences in geopolitical interests (there are such differences between Western states, but they do not lead to wars), but by differences in views on the world and the construction of society itself. Georgia turned out to be a whipping boy, and its example should be a warning to others, primarily Ukraine. The inclusion of the latter into the Western orbit could be a devastating blow to the system that the Kremlin is strengthening today. After all, if Ukraine becomes part of Europe and begins to live like Poland, and maybe even Slovenia, how will the Kremlin prove that genetically close Russia cannot be liberal and prosperous? It is clear whose interests and which country today are protected by all those who warn the West that, if Ukraine is admitted to NATO, Armageddon will come. The August war makes it pointless to discuss who rules Russia and what are the relations within the ruling tandem Medvedev-Putin. Medvedev put on Putin’s jacket and became a military president, and it was he who had to close the era in the development of the country, which was begun by Mikhail Gorbachev . ” ^[147]

The FOM survey conducted on August 23-24, 2008 ^[148] showed a significant increase in chauvinistic , anti-liberal and anti-Western sentiments in Russian society ^{[149] [150]} .

Domestic Political Situation in Georgia Due to Conflict

The Russian Newsweek magazine of September 22, 2008 wrote: “Politically, Mikheil Saakashvili’s position within Georgia has only strengthened. The power system that emerged after the Rose Revolution survived, the Georgians rallied in the face of the aggressor-Russia even more than Russia in the face of the prosecutor-West. <...> Georgian authorities resisted, but they are not confident in themselves. The fear that Moscow, even though Russian tanks didn’t reach Tbilisi, will nevertheless make a regime change - with more peaceful means, is felt in Georgia. ” ^[151] In an interview with the magazine, the leading opposition politician of Georgia Nino Burjanadze answered the correspondent’s question“ That is Saakashvili’s guilt that Russian tanks were in Gori and Poti, no? ”:“ There is no justification for the fact that Russian tanks were in Gori. No action by Saakashvili justifies Russia's actions. How is the bombing of Poti and Senaki justified? What did the Russian troops do there? Russia is a big country, it has its own interests, and there is no need to hide behind the interests of the Ossetian people. Who gave Russia the right to protect its citizens in the territory of another state? Of course, this was just an excuse. <...> No one in Georgia will help anyone in Russia to change power in Georgia. It is completely incomprehensible to me how it can be stated that the president of another country is unacceptable. This is not for Russia to decide. ” ^[152]

At a meeting of the Georgian opposition in Tbilisi on November 7, 2008, which turned out to be much smaller than last year’s same day, the most radical slogans were missing; the main slogan of the action was “STOP RUSSIA STOP MISHA” ^[153] .

On January 28, 2009, the National Assembly of Azerbaijanis of Georgia (NAAG) demanded a change in the state system of the country and the creation of a confederation with a bicameral parliament . ^[154]

Status of Abkhazia and South Ossetia

On August 14, 2008, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that "talks about the territorial integrity of Georgia can be forgotten, since it is impossible to force Abkhazia and South Ossetia to agree to a forced return to the Georgian state." ^[155] Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said that the status of South Ossetia and Abkhazia should be determined by their peoples and that Russia, as a guarantor of security in the Caucasus, intends to agree with their decision. ^[156]

On August 18, a meeting of the Presidium of the Government of the Russian Federation was held, at which, in particular, it was decided that part of the money allocated by Russia for the restoration of South Ossetia should be spent through the budget of North Ossetia as a transfer from the federal fund for co-financing of expenses. According to the newspaper Kommersant , such a decision actually means the inclusion of South Ossetia in the budget system of Russia. ^[157]

On August 21, the national assembly of Abkhazia accepted an appeal to the President of Russia , the Federation Council and the State Duma of Russia with a request for recognition of the independence of the Republic of Abkhazia. According to Interfax, about 55,000 people took part in the gathering. ^[158]

On August 22, the South Ossetian parliament unanimously, without abstaining, adopted an appeal to the President of the Russian Federation, speakers of the Federation Council and the State Duma of Russia with a request to recognize the independence of South Ossetia. ^[159]

On August 24, Georgian President M. Saakashvili said, according to the International Herald Tribune , that he “will continue to pursue a policy of uniting both enclaves under the Georgian flag.” ^[160]

On August 25, the Federation Council of Russia unanimously adopted an appeal to the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev on the recognition of the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia ^[161] ; on the same day, the State Duma of Russia adopted a similar appeal ^[162] . The Russian State Duma also “sent an appeal to the parliaments of the member states of the United Nations and international parliamentary organizations, in which it urged them to support the recognition of the independence of the Republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent, sovereign and independent states.” ^{[163] [164]}

On August 26, 2008 , Russian President Dmitry Medvedev announced the signing of the decrees “On the Recognition of the Republic of Abkhazia” and “On the Recognition of the Republic of South Ossetia”, according to which the Russian Federation recognizes both republics “as a sovereign and independent state”, it undertakes to establish with each of have diplomatic relations and conclude an agreement on friendship, cooperation and mutual assistance. ^{[165] [166]} Commenting on his actions in an interview with the BBC , the President of Russia emphasized that the decision to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia was forced and did not pursue the goal of breaking off relations with Western countries that support Georgia ^[167] . In an interview with TF-1, he said that "... for Georgia ... new times are coming, Georgia, it seems to me, should draw certain conclusions from what happened: this is a serious lesson on how to build relations with your closest neighbors and peoples, which when they were part of Georgia. ” ^[168]

Moscow’s decision on recognition was denounced on the same day by German Chancellor Angela Merkel , United Kingdom Foreign Secretary David Miliband , US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, officials from France, the Czech Republic, Italy, Ukraine and other countries, as well as all heads of European institutions - PACE, OSCE, European Commission, Council of Europe. ^{[169] [170] [171] [172]} .

On August 28, the Georgian parliament at an extraordinary meeting adopted a document that “determines the status of the Georgian territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia” as “occupied territories” ^[48] .

At the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Dushanbe on August 28, 2008, according to Kommersant newspaper, dated August 29, 2008, the summit’s participating states failed to support their actions in the Caucasus: the SCO’s final declaration support for the principle of territorial integrity of states and against the use of force in international affairs ^[173] .

On August 29, 2008, South Ossetian officials announced that Russia intends to annex the republic to its territory ^[174] .

On September 9, 2008, Moscow established diplomatic relations with Sukhum and Tskhinval, promised to deploy almost four thousand of its soldiers in military bases in each republic, and also created a fund to help victims of the conflict ^[175]

On September 11, Kokoity made conflicting statements, which were initially interpreted as the intention of South Ossetia to become part of Russia ^{[176] [177]} .

US missile defense in Europe

According to experts ^{[178] [179]} , the signing by the governments of the USA and Poland on August 20, 2008 of the earlier initialed agreement on the deployment of US missile defense missiles in Poland ^[180] after difficult months-long negotiations became possible due to the actions of Russia in the Caucasus. Nezavisimaya Gazeta , dated August 21, quotes the Prime Minister of Poland Donald Tusk, who changed his position on the issue: “After the events in the Caucasus, it became obvious that we need security guarantees.” ^[181] It is planned to begin construction of a base for ten by the end of 2008 interceptor missiles 5 km from the town of Slupsk in northeastern Poland; by 2014, all work in Poland, as well as in the Czech Republic, where the US missile defense radar will be located, should be completed. The agreement between the United States and Poland also provides for the deployment by 2012 on the Polish territory of the American garrison of 110 people and one battery of Patriot-2 missiles (96 units). According to the newspaper Kommersant ^[178] , “the events in the Caucasus impressed the Polish public. According to a study published in the newspaper Rzecz Pospolita, 58% of Poles support the presence of missile defense elements in their country. A few weeks ago, most of the inhabitants of Poland reacted negatively to such an idea. ”

NATO

The Economist magazine dated September 6, 2008 quoted the opinion of an unnamed senior NATO official ^[182] : “The days when it was considered a taboo to discuss any military threat from Russia in the emergency plans of the alliance have practically passed. When the NATO defense ministers come together on September 18, the big question will be how to protect the current members, especially the Baltic states, which are small, weak and located on the border with Russia. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania joined the alliance in 2004, when such issues were marked as too speculative for concern (or, on the contrary, too provocative for consideration). Now they are inevitable. ”

In an interview with the British Sky News channel , as well as in his speech at the castle of the Marlborough estate ( Blenheim Palace ), on September 19, 2008, US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates stated ^{[183] [184] [185]} that Russia would face a violent response from the United States if it attacks Georgia after it joins NATO, as required by Article 5 of the Charter of the organization. Expressing the opinion that "the long-term invasion of Georgia will be recognized at best as a pyrrhic victory and costly strategic cost overruns," the Pentagon head noted the unacceptability of an excessive level of "demilitarization" in Europe and the fact that only five of the 26 NATO member countries spend at least 2% of GDP for defense, as prescribed by current standards ^{[183] [185] [186]} .

Georgia and NATO

Tony Caron wrote in Time magazine on August 15 that many Europeans believe that the events in Georgia “confirmed the correctness of their cautious approach to the issue of granting Georgia membership in NATO”: many in Europe are considering military support from the Georgian Bush administration and lobbying Tbilisi to NATO as an encouragement to President Mikheil Saakashvili for a reckless attack on South Ossetia. <...> Most of its [NATO] member states are not eager to enter into confrontation with a resurgent Russia in the Caucasus, which is a traditional sphere of Russian influence. On the one hand, the alliance already has enough problems with maintaining the 71,000-strong group of forces in Afghanistan, where they can only somehow stay afloat in the face of growing difficulties. Another argument against confrontation is that a significant part of Western Europe is completely dependent on Russia for energy supplies; and the European negotiators believe that without active support from Moscow there is little chance of achieving a diplomatic resolution of the confrontation on the issue of the Iranian nuclear program. Thus, <...> the events of the past week, most likely, put the issue of Georgia’s membership in NATO in the foreseeable future into a state of deep freeze, although NATO continues to verbally remain committed to this idea in principle. If so, then Moscow can regard what happened as an important victory: the rival military alliance was prevented from moving to the backyard of Russia. “Punishing” Georgia, the main goal pursued by Russia was to warn neighbors who were inclined to challenge from the security umbrella of the West that, if a storm starts, such an umbrella will not serve as a serious defense. <...> When the last NATO summit for Bush takes place in December, symbolic words may continue to sound in support of Georgia’s membership, but one should not expect it to be presented with an Membership Action Plan. Moreover, the events of the last week raised the question of the very purpose of the existence of NATO and its relations with Russia. " ^{[187] [188] [189]}

On August 17, 2008, while in Tbilisi, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said: “If Georgia wants it, the decision of the NATO Bucharest summit will not change, and the doors of the alliance are open for Georgia.” ^[190]

On August 20, Belgian Foreign Minister Karel de Gucht , regarding further cooperation between NATO and Georgia, said that admitting “a country that sometimes manifests itself through not very controlled actions is risky in itself”. ^[191]

On August 25, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, meeting with Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeld, insisted that Georgia and Ukraine submit an NATO Membership Action Plan. ^[192]

On September 4, 2008, a White House spokeswoman stated that Ukraine and Georgia “have met the requirements for joining the MAP process,” and the decision to join these countries in the Membership Action Plan will be made in December by its foreign ministers. " ^[193]

US Vice President Dick Cheney , who was on an official visit to Tbilisi on September 4, 2008, said: “The United States remains on your side. You survived an invasion of your sovereign territory, a unilateral and illegal attempt to force change the borders of your country. Russia's actions make it seriously doubt that it is a reliable partner, and not only for the countries of this region, but also for the whole world. <...> You will be in the alliance. ” ^[194]

On September 15-16, a meeting of the NATO Council was held in Tbilisi, opened by Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili and NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer ^[195] Jaap de Hoop Scheffer said at the final press conference, in particular: “Although the events of the past month could to push Georgia back in the matter of receiving the MAP, nevertheless, all doors are still open before it in the alliance. No country has a veto in this matter. And we will not allow our close ties with Georgia to be broken due to external aggression. ” ^[196] NATO Secretary General visited Gori; According to Vladimir Vardzelashvili, the governor of Shida-Kartli, a neighboring region of South Ossetia, “having arrived in Gori, the Secretary General examined buildings destroyed by Russian bombardment, visited the Georgian infantry brigade blown up by Russian invaders, and met with Georgian refugees from South Ossetia whom we settled in the tent camps. ” ^[196]

In December 2008, at a meeting of the NATO Council, a decision was not made to provide Georgia with an Alliance Membership Action Plan. ^[197]

In August 2009, the head of the Center for Research on Eastern Geopolitics, Laurinas Kasčiūnas, said: “Although after the conflict at one time it seemed that [Georgia ]’s NATO membership could be accelerated, but in the end, the conflict put off this prospect. Membership in NATO is now a very distant scenario. ” ^[198]

Russia and NATO

On August 19, at a meeting of the Council of Ministers of Foreign Affairs of NATO member countries in Brussels , a statement was adopted, in particular, which read: “The Union is seriously considering the consequences of Russia's actions for NATO-Russia relations. In 2002, we established the Russia-NATO Council as a format for discussions with Russia, including issues that contribute to the separation between the Union and Russia. We decided that we cannot continue as usual. ” ^[199] At the meeting, support for the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Georgia was reaffirmed; it was decided to develop, together with Georgia, the NATO-Georgia Commission - a mechanism for consultations ^{[200] [201]} . Speaking after the meeting of the Council of Ministers, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said about the adopted Statement, in particular, the following ^[202] : “<...> the document is a very clear statement that the real alliance, NATO, having traveled this way after the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union in reaching a Europe that is united, free and peaceful, is not going to allow a new line to be drawn in Europe, a line between those who are fortunate enough to enter transatlantic structures and those who are only striving for transatlantic structures. <...> The confirmation of the Bucharest summit was voiced that the circumstances of the accession of Georgia and Ukraine to the MAP will be considered by the ministers in December, as envisaged in Bucharest, but there will be absolutely no new feature. " Answering journalists' questions, she also said: " Russia's behavior in The present recent conflict isolates Russia from the principles of cooperation between the peoples of the communities of states when you begin to invade the territory of small neighbors, bomb civil infrastructure, enter villages and destroy arbitrarily infrastructure. ” ^[202]

On August 21, NATO spokeswoman Carmen Romero said: “Russia has informed us through official channels that the Russian Minister of Defense has decided to suspend events in the framework of international military cooperation between Russia and NATO countries ... until further instructions are received.” Earlier similar notifications were received by such NATO countries as Norway, Estonia and Latvia. ^[203]

In September 2008, NATO security services and NATO member states announced that Russia had increased its efforts to obtain intelligence at NATO headquarters and in NATO countries ^{[204] [205] The} Czech BIS officially announced on September 24 Among other things: “BIS believes that Russia's vigorous action against the Czech Republic and its allies may have been part of a broader and longer-term Russian campaign aimed at breaking the unity of the European Union and NATO, isolating the United States and regaining control b over the lost Soviet perimeter of security in Europe. ” ^[205]

Other countries and NATO

According to the Kommersant newspaper on August 29, 2008, “the shock from the Russian-Georgian war turned out to be so great that in the neutral countries of Northern Europe they seriously started talking about the possibility of joining NATO.” ^[206]

On September 15, 2008, the international tactical and special peacekeeping exercise “Steppe Eagle-2008” began at the Ili training ground of the Airborne Forces of the Armed Forces of Kazakhstan , which lasted until September 27; military personnel of the armies of Kazakhstan, Great Britain and the United States of America participated in the exercise ^{[207] [208]} . September 23, 2008, Reuters quoted Kazakh Defense Minister D. Akhmetov (translated from English): “We want to bring cooperation with NATO to a new level.” ^[209]

In anticipation of the meeting of NATO defense ministers, which opened in Budapest on Thursday , August 9, 2008, it was reported that the NATO military leadership will discuss, in particular, plans to protect the Alliance’s Partnership for peace and its borders ^[210] . A Kommersant newspaper source at NATO headquarters told the publication: “Our relations with Russia are not listed on the agenda as a separate item, but they will certainly be one of the most important topics. The consequences of the conflict in the Caucasus will be discussed in the framework of the meeting of the Georgia-NATO Commission, which will be held on Friday. ” ^[210]

Russian Navy Black Sea Fleet

The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry said on August 10 that "the Ukrainian side reserves the right, according to the norms of international law and Ukrainian legislation, to prohibit the return to the territory of Ukraine of ships and ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet that may take part in the above actions ." ^{[211] The} Russian Black Sea Fleet is based in Sevastopol and on August 9 went to sea.

On August 12, Yushchenko ordered the tax police of Ukraine to check all financial operations of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, including food purchases. In the case of comments, the basing places of Russian ships should be disconnected from electricity and water supply. The Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine , the State Automobile Inspectorate and the SBU were ordered to verify the legality of their presence in Sevastopol and the presence of Russian military registration and their real estate documents. “According to the law of Ukraine, almost none of them has a permanent residence permit or any other documents confirming the legality of their presence in Sevastopol. Preventive measures against the Black Sea will be the toughest, right up to expulsion from the country. ” ^[212]

On August 13, Yushchenko signed a decree: the Russian military is required to obtain permission from the General Staff of Ukraine for the movement of ships, planes and personnel of the Black Sea Fleet in 72 hours (when leaving the sea - in 10 days); when specifying the list of transported property, all weapons, ammunition, full name of personnel. Fleet personnel are required to fill out Ukrainian migration cards. ^{[213] [214]}

On August 13, the Russian Foreign Ministry said: “The decree is in direct contradiction with the basic agreements on the status and conditions of the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s stay in Ukraine ... It is puzzling that the Ukrainian side has not bothered to at least observe basic diplomatic decency.” ^[215]

On August 14, the General Staff of Russia announced that Yushchenko “has no right to command the Black Sea Fleet,” because the decree is illegitimate. A. Nogovitsyn: “We are familiar with this document. We have a legitimate list of agreements with the Ukrainian side. In our country, there is one Supreme Commander-in-Chief - for the Black Sea Fleet [too]. ” ^{[214] [216]}

The General Staff of Ukraine, in turn, said that the decree will be implemented: the command of the Russian Black Sea Fleet will be forced to execute it. ^[216]

On August 15, parts of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Crimea were put on high alert, the UNIAN agency reported, citing a source close to the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. ^{[217] The} General Staff of Russia has denied this report.

On August 19, 2008, the command of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation fulfilled the requirement of the Decree of the President of Ukraine of August 13, 2008 on the procedure for moving Russian fleets across the state border of Ukraine and provided the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine with a message format about the entry of four of its ships, the Moscow missile cruiser, the watchdog, into Sevastopol ship "Shrewd" , a small missile ship "Mirage" and a small minesweeper "Turbinist". The procedure for reporting the entry of four ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet to Sevastopol was carried out in accordance with the Decrees of the President of Ukraine, which relate to the regulations for the presence of Black Sea Fleet ships in Ukraine. ^[218]

On August 21, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that the actions of the Ukrainian authorities to limit the movement of ships of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation are a violation of basic agreements and cause bewilderment in Russia. He said that "those basic agreements that are in force do not impose any restrictions on the movement of ships of the Black Sea Fleet - neither there nor back." ^[219]

On August 22, the Ministry of Justice of Ukraine registered an order of the Minister of Defense of Ukraine “On the issue of movements related to the activities of military units of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation outside their locations on the territory of Ukraine” - the order entered into force. This order was issued in order to implement the Decree of the President of Ukraine No. 705/2008 "On the decision of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine of August 13, 2008" On the situation around movements associated with the activities of military units of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation outside their locations on the territory of Ukraine ". ^[220]

On August 29, the director of the first territorial department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Leonid Osavolyuk acquainted the charge d'affaires of the Russian Federation in Ukraine Vsevolod Loskutov with the contents of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine dated August 27 on the approval of the rules for crossing the state border of Ukraine by personnel, warships and aircraft of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry called for restraint and correctness in assessing fully justified and lawful actions of Ukraine and stated that Ukraine’s decisions regarding the Black Sea Fleet were adopted in full compliance with the requirements of Article 15 of the bilateral Agreement on the status and conditions of the Black Sea Fleet’s stay in Ukraine dated May 28, 1997 . ^[221]

CSTO Consolidation

At the summit of the Collective Security Treaty Organization Organization in Moscow on September 5, 2008, a decision was made to strengthen the military component of the organization ^{[222] [223]} . The Vedomosti newspaper dated September 9, 2008 noted that “The Five Day War made more than six years of the CSTO’s peaceful development to rally the allies.” ^[224]

The leadership of South Ossetia and Abkhazia in early September 2008 made statements about the desire of their republics to join the CSTO ^[176] .

Military construction in the Russian Federation

On October 2, 2008, the Krasnaya Zvezda newspaper published an interview with the chief of armaments of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation, Colonel General Vladimir Popovkin, which he began with the words: “ Events that took place in Georgia, South Ossetia and Abkhazia, made us somewhat rethink the current state of the Armed Forces and how they should develop further. In this regard, one of the most important issues are their technical equipment. " ^[225] He noted that the Russian Armed Forces had completely exhausted the stock of armaments and military equipment left over from the USSR, and therefore it was necessary to accelerate the equipment of the Armed Forces with new, modern weapons ^{[225] [226]} .

Nabucco Project

According to observers ^[227] , after the war in Georgia, the West markedly intensified the search for energy resources and ways to transport them bypassing Russia in order to reduce Europe’s dependence on Russian energy sources; practical steps were taken in this direction: Greece agreed on direct deliveries of Azerbaijani gas to Europe, Baku and Ashgabat supported the Nabucco gas pipeline bypassing the Russian Federation, and Hungary announced a forum to finalize this project.

In his interview in the Kommersant newspaper dated September 17, 2008, the British ambassador Tony Brenton , who was leaving after a trip to Moscow, directly recognized the main goal of the project ^[112] :

European Union

In anticipation of the extraordinary meeting of the European Council on September 1, 2008 in Brussels , devoted to the crisis in Georgia and EU relations with Russia ^[228] , the Financial Times dated August 29 quoted an unnamed EU diplomat: “In a sense, the meeting itself is already a signal. One of the consequences of the Russian-Georgian crisis is that EU countries begin to be in greater agreement with each other. ” ^[229]

Newsweek adhered to a similar point of view, writing on September 6: “<...> at the moment, the main consequence of Russia's actions in Europe has been a slight increase in unity within the European Union. It seems that the leaders of the EU countries really want to avoid a split, similar to what struck their ranks after the war in Iraq or, for example, during the Yugoslav conflict of the 90s, which shattered Europe’s illusory image of itself as a soft superpower. It seems that a consensus is now ripening that Russia will be a less convenient neighbor in the future. However, whether this will become a catalyst for the development of a pan-European strategic course and effective foreign policy, time will tell. ” ^{[230] [231]}

Azerbaijan - Armenia - Turkey

The consequence of the conflict between Georgia and Russia, according to Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan , ^[232] was the diplomatic rapprochement of Armenia with Turkey and Azerbaijan , ^[232] which was manifested, in particular, in the unprecedented visit of the Turkish President to the football match on September 6, 2008 Abdullah Gul . ^[233] On September 26, 2008, in New York, at the 63rd session of the UN General Assembly, a trilateral meeting of the foreign ministers of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkey was held, at which the parties discussed Turkey’s initiative to create a "Platform for Security and Development in the Caucasus." ^{[234] [235]}

The implementation of the Kars (Turkey) -Akhalkalaki (Georgia) -Baku (Azerbaijan) railway project was called into question: during the coordination council on the project, held on September 16, 2008 in Baku, the Turkish side expressed doubts about the feasibility of the project in connection with the consequences events that took place in the region in August 2008. ^[236]

Reaction to the conflict and subsequent steps of Russia

The conflict caused various assessments and opinions from governments, international organizations, politicians and public figures of different countries.

In connection with the military operations in the conflict zone, on August 8, international rating agencies downgraded Georgia's long-term ratings. The international rating agency Fitch downgraded Georgia's long-term rating in national and foreign currencies from “BB-” to “B + (negative)”. Standard & Poor's (S&P) downgraded the country's long-term rating from “B +” to “B”. ^[237]

On August 8, the Russian stock market closed in the red, shares of major companies fell by 3-8% due to fears of an outflow of capital from Western investors in connection with the outbreak of hostilities in South Ossetia. ^[238] The RTS index on the basis of trading on August 8 decreased by 6.51% and closed at 1722.71 points, the MICEX index lost 5.25% and amounted to 1,359.62 points. ^[239] However, on Monday, August 11, the index began to recover and on August 12 returned to the situation that was characteristic before the outbreak of hostilities (light descending thread). (indicate relevant dates)

The war also led to a slight drop in the ruble against the dollar in a dual-currency basket — the dollar reached a five-month high. ^[240]

According to some journalists, the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline was exposed to significant military risk. ^[241] The oil pipeline was closed before the outbreak of hostilities and the war exacerbated difficulties in the operation of the pipeline. ^[242]

Georgia claimed that Russian aviation deliberately bombed the oil pipeline ^[243] , but representatives of BP (the pipeline operator) were unable to confirm this information, nevertheless reporting that the transit of oil had been suspended for technical reasons on August 6 , due to for the explosion carried out by Kurdish separatists in Turkey . ^{[244] [245] [246] The} representative of the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry said that he did not have information about damage to the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline. ^[247]

On the night of August 9, President of the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Rovnag Abdulaev told Reuters that the transportation of oil through the South Caucasus gas pipeline with terminals in the ports of Batumi and Kulaevi would be temporarily stopped. Georgian authorities have stated that oil transit is carried out in the same volume. ^[248]

On the afternoon of August 11, Shushan Sardaryan, spokeswoman for the Armenian-Russian company ArmRosgazprom , which has a monopoly on the supply and distribution of Russian natural gas in the domestic market of Armenia, announced that Georgia on August 7 reduced the supply of Russian gas by one third to Armenia She emphasized that Russian Gazprom , for its part, is supplying the necessary volumes of gas to the South Caucasus in full. According to Sardaryan, specialists of the Georgian corporation explain the reduction in supplies by saying that " the necessary test work is currently being carried out on a gas pipeline with a diameter of 700 mm, which requires increasing the gas pressure in the system ." ^[249]

After August 12, 2008, President of Russia Dmitry Medvedev announced the completion of the operation to force Georgia to peace, the RTS index rose to 1800 points. ^{[250] [251]}

The Washington Post wrote, citing unnamed Georgian officials, who admit that the economic damage to Georgia as a result of the war in South Ossetia reached several hundred million US dollars and that Georgia’s GDP growth projected at more than 10% will now fall, at least least in the short term, up to 3%. ^[252]

According to Nezavisimaya Gazeta , dated August 20, a rough estimate of only military operations in the "five-day war" for the Russian budget is 12.5 billion rubles; In addition, on August 18, Deputy Prime Minister Aleksey Kudrin announced that Russia plans to allocate 10 billion rubles for the restoration of facilities in Tskhinvali and other infrastructure elements of South Ossetia in 2009 ^[253] .

According to analysts ^[254] , the armed conflict in South Ossetia has become one of the reasons for the decrease in the gold and foreign exchange reserves of Russia and the outflow of capital from the stock market.

The Vedomosti newspaper dated August 26, 2008 cited the Georgian President’s assessment of Georgia’s damage of $ 2 billion, as well as the expert’s opinion that Ossetia could turn into a black hole for the Russian budget due to the inefficiency of capital investments in the frontline ^[255] . The Vlast magazine of August 25 also draws attention to the fact that hostilities could be personally beneficial to a number of senior South Ossetian officials due to the allocation of significant funds from the Russian budget of North Ossetia for “international activities” (that is, for South Ossetia), the results of which not visible ^[256] .

On August 26, the Russian stock market reacted to the fall of Russia’s announcement of recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, in connection with which the Kommersant newspaper noted: “The collapse of the Russian market has occurred for the third time in August. For the first time this month, the market reacted by falling to a statement by Vladimir Putin, who expressed doubts about the legitimacy of Mechel's pricing policy. Then the RTS and MICEX indices were overwhelmed with news of military operations in South Ossetia. ” ^[257] However, already on August 27, the index began to recover and on August 28 returned to the situation that was typical before the declaration of independence of South Africa (a light downward thread). [2] Moscow’s recognition of independence had a similar effect on the Ukrainian stock market: on August 26, when Russian President Dmitry Medvedev signed decrees recognizing the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the PFTS index fell by 3.5%, over the next two days by more than 10% . ^[258]

On September 2, the Australian television and radio corporation ABC News reported that the Australian government said that it would mean “Russian aggression in Georgia before ratifying the deal to sell uranium to Russia.” ^{[259] [260]} .

On September 3, CSTO Secretary General Nikolai Bordyuzha said that Armenia ’s economic losses due to communication problems during the conflict amounted to about $ 500 million ^[261] .

Economist Judy Shelton, author of The Coming Soviet Crash , published in 1989 , wrote in The Wall Will Journal Punish Putinism on September 3, 2008: Putin “has one thing to learn: sometimes an invisible hand the market strikes back. ” ^{[144] [145]} .

Peter Aslund considered “fatal” for the Russian economy on August 8, 2008, in his article of September 3 ^[262] .

On September 4, 2008, on an official visit to Tbilisi, US Vice President Dick Cheney announced Washington's allocation of $ 1 billion to restore the Georgian economy ^[194] .

On September 8, 2008, the US government withdrew from the Congress the Russian-American agreement on cooperation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy ^{[263] [264]} .

According to the FT of September 11, 2008 ^[265] , the statements made by President Medvedev when he was forced to publicly intervene on the stock market on September 10, 2008, after his collapse, indicated that the outcome of foreign capital may be begins to affect the Russian economy.

However, it is worth noting that the fall in the Russian stock market took place simultaneously with the fall of most stock markets in the world amid the strongest global economic crisis since the Great Depression .

Due to the conflict, Kazakhstan was forced to abandon the planned investments in large projects in Batumi and Poti ^[266] . Georgia was the only large object of Kazakhstani investments besides Russia; Kazakhstan was the second Georgian investor after the United States ($ 2–2.5 billion over the past 5–6 years), mainly in the transport and energy sectors ^[267] . Vedomosti dated September 23, 2008 quoted the expert as saying: “Russia has clearly demonstrated that within a few days it can turn Georgia’s infrastructure into a pile of ruins.” ^[267]

The armed conflict between Russia and Georgia pushed back Russia's accession to the WTO . Georgia, defending its economic interests as a member of the WTO, declared unacceptable in the geopolitical conditions created for Russia after the war, why Russia could not join the World Trade Organization. The stumbling block was the issue of cargo control at the checkpoints of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Georgia insisted that international observers be present at customs control points, while Russia suggested limiting itself to providing information on the passage of goods through the checkpoints of the two republics. ^[268] A compromise was reached only in October 2011 under pressure from the European Union. On November 9, Georgia and Russia, through the mediation of Switzerland, signed an agreement on Russia's accession to the WTO. ^[269]