Future

The future has always occupied a special place in philosophy and in the human mind in general. According to one theory ( indeterminism ), the future is not predetermined, and people can create it themselves ^[2] . According to another theory, the future is predetermined in advance (see Determinism ) ^[3] . It is also possible that people themselves create the future, but their decisions and actions to create the future are predetermined ^[4] . In the framework of the cyclic model of time (the universe) in the future, what is already in the past is repeated ^[5] .

Many religions offer prophecies about life after death, as well as about the end of the world . The conflict in Christianity between the knowledge of the future by God and the free will of man leads, for example, to the doctrine of predestination ^[6] .

The significance of the future is emphasized by the fact that people are in great need of predictions and predictions of what will happen to them. It is possible that the development of the human brain for the most part is the development of the cognitive abilities necessary in order to predict the future, that is, imagination, logic and induction .

The concept of the human future in the consciousness of civilizations, representing time as a line from the past to the future, is closely connected with the concept of progress . Objectively, quantifying progress is difficult. Measurement of industrial progress can be made by increasing the level of energy consumption. This is the basis of the Kardashev civilization scale ^[7] .

In the information era, the measure may be the speed of microprocessors (see Moore's law ) - a similar classification of civilizations was put forward by Carl Sagan . This criterion, like the previous one, can be considered technocratic .

With the development and improvement of weapons, mankind has gained more powerful means of destruction, despite the fact that in the 20th century, more than 100 million people suffered in the First, Second World Wars and other conflicts ^[8] and weapons of mass destruction exist and continue to be developed, one can doubt that progress lies only in the development of technology . The most important factor in progress is human potential ^[9] .

In accordance with the concept of Humanism (from the Latin. Humanitas - humanity) - “in the center is the idea of ​​a person as the highest value in relation to the person himself and relative to a number of other values ​​of the world and society” ^[10] , progress can also consist in spreading high moral and moral standards.

Despite the transition from the industrial era to the information age, the amount of resources consumed is growing every year. In this regard, it is believed that the colonization of space is inevitable ^[11] , since there are only a limited number of available resources and places to live on planet Earth.

The future can also be thought of as a set of projects, and we can and should be talking about its construction ^[12] .

Imagination allows us to “see” a plausible model of a given situation without risk associated with its actual implementation. Logical reasoning allows us to predict the inevitable consequences of certain actions in various situations, and therefore provide useful information about future events. Induction allows you to establish the relationship of cause and effect , and is a fundamental concept for building a forecast of future events.

Despite the presence of these cognitive tools useful for understanding the future, the probabilistic nature of many natural and social processes has made the task of predicting the future a difficult but desired goal for many people and cultures over the centuries ^[13] .

People have always sought to see images of the future. Therefore, the prophets and forecasters have always been of great social importance. The biblical view of the future predicts the onset of the Apocalypse , which includes the birth of the Antichrist , the second coming of Jesus Christ , the end of the world, and the Last Judgment .

In order to predict the future, esoteric teachings, astrology , palmistry , superstition arose. The development of much of physics is also easily explained as an attempt to make objective predictions about future events. Fiction arose as a means of super-long-range forecasting with the help of artistic imagination ^[14] .

However, the current speed of scientific and technological progress has reached such a level that fundamental changes occur many times over the life of one generation, therefore, in a completely different light, a vision of the future is built, and, therefore, the task of predicting ways for further development. Until now, people have lived a traditional life, and in that constant, unchanging world, the problem of planning was a normal, correct task. It was posed and, with a certain degree of probability, solved. Now we are in an area where the statement of the problem of a long-term development forecast is incorrect, the horizon of any reliable forecasting is obviously narrowing. However, it is precisely this unpredictability that makes any reliable predictions especially in demand, and therefore it is in this new situation that even the minimally correct forecasting becomes critically relevant ^[15] .

Predicted future options include both pessimistic pictures of the future ( environmental disaster , World War III , nanotechnological disaster ^[16] ), and a utopian future in which the poorest people live in conditions that today can be considered rich and comfortable, and even the transformation of humanity into a posthuman life form.

Alvin Toffler warns of new difficulties, social conflicts and global problems that humanity will face at the turn of the 20th and 21st centuries in connection with the transition of civilization to the super-industrial ( post-industrial ) phase.

Accelerating the pace of change has deeply entered our personal lives, forced us to play new roles and confronted new dangers. All this can be described by the term "futuroshok". Futuroshock , or the shock of the future, is a stunning confusion caused by the premature advance of the future.

Examples of failed forecasts

Russian writer and scientist Kirill Yeskov wrote about unfulfilled social forecasts in his essay “Our Answer to Fukuyama” ^[17] :

• D. I. Mendeleev considered the utilization of a huge amount of manure to be the most difficult technical problem of the twentieth century (after all, the number of horses, of course, will continue to grow at the same pace);
• A. Einstein said a dozen years before Hiroshima that it would come to practical use of atomic energy in a hundred years - not before;
• Bernard Shaw saw the political map of future Europe like this: “France and Germany? These are obsolete geographical names ... By Germany, you obviously mean a number of Soviet or almost Soviet republics located between the Ural Range and the North Sea. ”

Optimistic Future Scenarios

Many famous Marxists, in the framework of their vision of the development of civilization, repeatedly postulated the onset of communism as an inevitable social future.

In science fiction, an image of the future has developed in which there is an interstellar human civilization , sometimes included in a more complex system of civilizations of other intelligent races.

The Star Trek universe portrays a humanistic and optimistic future. An interplanetary Federation has been created in it, professing the principles of tolerance and non-interference. True, in the Star Trek universe, there are endless space wars of earthlings with the Borgs , Cardassians , etc. In the David Weber Universe, there are continuous wars of the descendants of earthlings among themselves.

Technological Singularity

“Over the next thirty years, we will have the technical opportunity to create superhuman intelligence. Soon after this, the human era will be completed ” ^[18] .

Possible ways of the formation of superhuman intelligence:

• Artificial Intelligence Development,
• Increasing human biological capabilities
• Human computer systems.

Technological singularity is the supposed point in the future when the evolution of the human mind as a result of the development of nanotechnology , biotechnology and artificial intelligence will accelerate to such an extent that further changes will lead to the emergence of a mind with a much higher level of speed and a new quality of thinking.

According to some authors who adhere to this theory, technological singularity may occur around 2030 . However, its offensive does not mean the end of history, rather, on the contrary, the Prehistory of mankind will be over and the beginning of its true History will be laid.

There is a hypothesis that there will not be a pronounced point of singularity, with an acute crisis. The development follows the S-curve, and in the near future braking will begin. And the point of “singularity” is such a point on the development graph at which its speed is maximum (the middle of the S-shaped curve). On the development of an S-shaped curve, see also: ^[19]

The Emergence of Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence will either be created by people, or will spawn in the network ( emergent evolution ). Artificial intelligence of the future will have the following advantages over human intelligence ^[20] :

1. the speed of propagation of signals between neurons is 100 m / s, and between microcircuits - 300,000 km / s (speed of light), while the response time of neurons in the human brain is about a billion times less compared to silicon elements (today) and this the gap continues to widen;
2. the number of neurons in the human brain is ~ 86 billion ^[21] , in AI - almost without restrictions;
3. the duration of the functioning of AI is unlimited, in particular, for example, due to the possible rewriting of consciousness - the AI ​​program from one electronic medium to another;
4. when managing civilization, the “human factor” will not affect (any person always has flaws, and also, perhaps, a lack of understanding of development priorities);
5. direct “implantation” of AI in electronic-computer networks, increasingly entangling the planet (that is, instantaneous simultaneous processing and management of billions of channels).

In recent decades, a new applied field of AI has been developing in the world, specializing in artificial neural networks ^[22] , which already gives the application of results in real applications. Neural networks proved to be very effective for predicting time sequences (such as, for example, exchange rates or stock quotes ) ^[23] , for analyzing and assessing risks ^[24] , and for predicting electricity consumption in urban housing estates ^[25] .

In addition to investment tasks, artificial neural networks began to be widely used in medical diagnostics ^[26] . Intensive research and application of neurocomputer technology is underway when creating military equipment ^[27] .

After training, the neural network becomes a model that can be applied to new data for the purpose of forecasting ^[28] .

Space Conquest

Many philosophers of Russia (see the article Russian Cosmism ) predicted the conquest of space as a future phase of the development of mankind . See also the article Colonization of Space .

Pessimistic Future Scenarios

The theories of the death of Western civilization do not necessarily include a pessimistic scenario for the future, as they may suggest the triumph of other civilizations and cultures.

In connection with the development of nanotechnology, the “ gray slime ” scenario has recently gained popularity in the press ^[29] , according to which self-replicating nanorobots that get out of control will absorb the entire biomass of the Earth . However, such a scenario is unlikely if the control source is located next to these robots, that is, appropriate precautions will be taken.

According to the pessimistic scenario of the energy crisis, there is simply not enough energy to maintain our high-tech civilization, and the world will return to a pre-industrial state.

As our Universe expands, in the distant future in the Universe it is necessary to expect big changes. There is no clearly established unified theory of the future Universe. There are only many different theories.

• Big gap . This scenario assumes that the Universe is torn apart, due to its acceleration.
• Great compression . This scenario involves the contraction of the universe into a singularity . Extremely unlikely in connection with the observation of the accelerated expansion of the universe.

Man of the Future

Subject to the correct attitude to ethical issues and social needs, one can expect a significant improvement in human abilities, the effectiveness of social activities and the quality of life ^[30] . Ahead is a higher phase of the evolution of intelligence ^[31] . Technological progress leads to the fact that cyborgs , intelligent computers will appear soon.

Transhumanism

Transhumanism is a philosophical movement based on the assumption that man is not the last link in evolution , which means that he can improve to infinity.

Transhumanism is a rational and cultural movement that claims that it is possible and necessary to eliminate aging and death , and significantly increase the mental and physical capabilities of a person.

This is a study of the achievements, prospects and potential dangers of using science , technology , creativity and other ways to overcome the fundamental limits of human capabilities.

The goal of cryonics , for example, is the transfer of patients who have just died or terminal (doomed to death) at a time in the future when the technology of repair ("repair") of cells and tissues becomes available and, accordingly, it will be possible to restore all body functions. Most likely, such technology will be nanotechnology and, in particular, molecular nanorobots developed within its framework.

The future of computer technology

According to Moore's Law, computer microminiaturization will develop at an accelerated pace, as will the speed of computers. The cost of new integrated circuit factories will also increase. Multi -core processors and multiprocessor systems will be developed. A further step in the evolution of computer technology can lead to the development of biocomputers and quantum computers .

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• Moskovchenko A. D. Introduction to space philosophy. - Tomsk, 1997.
• Russian cosmism / Sat. M., 1993.
• Semenova S. G. Nikolai Fedorov: Creativity of life. M., 1990.
• Fedorov N.F. Works in 2 vols. M., 1995.
• Tsiolkovsky K. E. Dreams about earth and sky. Tula, 1986.
• Stanislav Lem - “The Sum of Technology”
• Tsaregorodtsev, I. A. The problem of predicting and changing the future // XIII All-Russian Conf. students, graduate students and young scientists (April 20-24, 2009): in 6 volumes. T. 5. Philosophy. Social sciencies. Culturology . - Tomsk, 2009 .-- S. 130-132.

• Patterns of the past help choose the future
• Nikolai Fedorov On the great future of the family and the insignificant future of the current "public" business
• Kara-Murza S.G. Anti-Soviet project - M .: Algorithm, 2002. - C.288. ISBN 5-9265-0063-0 (wrong)
• Kara-Murza S. G. , Telegin S. A. Tsar-Kholod or why Russia freezes out - M .: Algorithm, 2003. - C.271. ISBN 5-9265-0114-8
• Andrey Kapatsiy. Forecast of the Development of Science and Technology in the 21st Century
• Lebedev M. A. Philosophy and the future of civilization: On the work and results of the IV Russian Philosophical Congress
• Project Utopian.de - the future network
• Future institute
• The Future: audio program on US public radio program
• Horizons 2020 Futurological research of Siemens AG (inaccessible link from 05/26/2013 [2276 days] - history , copy )
• The famous book "Weaving the Web: the origins and future of the World Wide Web" online
• Nanomedicine
• An incredible forecast for the near future
• Futurology in the future will help to avoid what she herself predicts
• Future world