Demographics

Content

Absolute demographic indicators

Total Population

P = P ₀ + (N - M) + (V ₊ - V _- ) = P ₀ + E + V _pr (demographic balance equation)

P - total population
P ₀ - the population at the beginning of the year
N is the total number of births
M is the total number of deaths.
E - natural population growth
V ₊ - the number of arrivals
V _- - the number of retired
V _pr - migration balance

General population growth

P ₁ - P ₀ = P _ol
P ₀ - the population at the beginning of the period (usually a year)
P ₁ - at the end of the period

Natural population growth

N - M = E
N is the total number of births
M is the total number of deaths.
The value of the indicator can be negative if there is a natural population decline (in Russia from 1992 to 2012 )

Migration balance (net migration)

V ₊ - V _- = V _pr
V ₊ - number of arrivals ( immigrants )
V _- - the number of retired ( emigrants )

V = P _pr - E (indirect method)

In the case of arrivals and departures, in many countries there is an underestimation; emigrants in the USA are completely ignored. Then look for a balance indirectly from the equation of the demographic balance, proposed by the UN in the 1960s .

Proportion of women of reproductive age

$F={\frac {N_{x}}{W_{x}\times T}}-W_{x}$ ${\ displaystyle F = {\ frac {N_ {x}} {W_ {x} \ times T}} - W_ {x}}$

General demographic coefficients

It is characteristic of general coefficients: the number of demographic events in the numerator refers to the entire population , and not only to the part that generates this event; however, the occurrence of this event does not reduce the value of the denominator.

Birth and death rates

$n={\frac {N}{P}}\times 1000$ ${\ displaystyle n = {\ frac {N} {P}} \ times 1000}$ (number of live births) $N$ ${\ displaystyle N}$ per thousand people on average per year $P$ ${\ displaystyle P}$ )

$m={\frac {M}{P}}\times 1000$ ${\ displaystyle m = {\ frac {M} {P}} \ times 1000}$

$M$ ${\ displaystyle M}$ - the number of deaths in a given year;
$N$ ${\ displaystyle N}$ - the number of births for a given year;
$P$ ${\ displaystyle P}$ - average population per year ^[1] ^[2] .

Special fertility rate

Special fertility rate ( $F_{15-49}$ ${\ displaystyle F_ {15-49}}$ ) is the ratio of live births for a calendar year to the average annual number of women of reproductive age:

$F_{15-49}={\frac {N}{W_{15-49}}}\times 1000$ ${\ displaystyle F_ {15-49} = {\ frac {N} {W_ {15-49}}} \ times 1000}$ ,

Where $W_{15-49}$ ${\ displaystyle W_ {15-49}}$ - The average number of women aged 15 to 49 years;
$N$ ${\ displaystyle N}$ - number of births ^[3] ^[2] .

Birth Intensity Ratio

$I={\frac {N_{x}}{W_{x}}}$ ${\ displaystyle I = {\ frac {N_ {x}} {W_ {x}}}}$

$N_{x}$ ${\ displaystyle N_ {x}}$ - number of births in women of age x ;
$W_{x}$ ${\ displaystyle W_ {x}}$ - the average annual number ^[2] .

Infant mortality rate

$m_{0}={\frac {M_{0}}{{\frac {2N_{0}}{3}}+{\frac {N_{-1}}{3}}}}\times 1000$ ${\ displaystyle m_ {0} = {\ frac {M_ {0}} {{\ frac {2N_ {0}} {3}} {{fra} {N _ {- 1}} {3}}} \ times 1000}$ ; (Ratsa formula)

$m_{0}=({\frac {M_{0}}{N_{0}}}+{\frac {M_{-1}}{N_{-1}}})\times 1000$ ${\ displaystyle m_ {0} = ({\ frac {M_ {0}} {N_ {0}}} + {\ frac {M _ {- 1}} {N _ {- 1}}}) \ times 1000}$ ;

M ₀ - the number of deaths at the age from 0 to 1 year
M ⁻¹ is the number of children who died before the age of one year from those born in the previous year.
N ₀ - the number of births in the reporting year;
N _-1 is the number of births in the previous year ^[4] .

Marriage rate

$b={\frac {B}{P\times T}}\times 1000$ ${\ displaystyle b = {\ frac {B} {P \ times T}} \ times 1000}$

$B$ ${\ displaystyle B}$ - total number of marriages ;
$P$ ${\ displaystyle P}$ - the average population at working age;
$T$ ${\ displaystyle T}$ - 1 calendar year ^[4] ^[3] .

Divorce rate

$S_{r}={\frac {R}{P\times T}}\times 1000$ ${\ displaystyle S_ {r} = {\ frac {R} {P \ times T}} \ times 1000}$

$R$ ${\ displaystyle R}$ - the total number of divorces ^[4] ^[3] .

The rates of marriage and divorce show the number of demographic events per 1000 population, and are expressed in ppm ^[3] .

The divorce rate is determined by the formula ^[4] :

$I={\frac {R}{B}}$ ${\ displaystyle I = {\ frac {R} {B}}}$

Life expectancy indicator

$e_{x}={\frac {T_{x}}{l_{x}}}$ ${\ displaystyle e_ {x} = {\ frac {T_ {x}} {l_ {x}}}}$

T _x - the number of man-years who will live after reaching the exact age of x years l _x - the number of survivors up to the age of x years

Population Reproduction

The gross reproduction rate of the population is calculated on the basis of the number of girls, which on average each woman gives birth to during her entire reproductive period and is equal to the total fertility rate multiplied by the proportion of girls among newborns.

The net reproduction rate of the population is the average number of girls born in a woman’s entire life and have survived to the end of the reproductive period at given levels of fertility and mortality.

The true rate of natural increase.

Notes

↑ Protasov, 2012 , p. 109.
↑ ¹ ² ³ Pil, 2011 , p. 28
↑ ¹ ² ³ ⁴ Borisov, 2001 .
↑ ¹ ² ³ ⁴ Peel, 2011 , p. 29.

Literature

Protasov, Yu. M. Statistics: lecture notes for students of the correspondence department . - Moscow: Flint Publishers, 2012. - 152 p. - ISBN 5457370607 .
Borisov, V. A. Demography . - M .: NOTABENE, 2001. - ISBN 5-8188-0016-4 .
Peel, E. A. Theoretical and statistical options for the development of the economy and population of different countries of the world and their forecast. Book 1 . - SPb: Asterion, 2011. - ISBN 5457743438 .

[_3609f80c10864213-1] Protasov, 2012 , p. 109.

[_506462d4cba211d2-2] ¹ ² ³ Pil, 2011 , p. 28

[_68f87b8bb774c034-3] ¹ ² ³ ⁴ Borisov, 2001 .

[_506462d4cba211d3-4] ¹ ² ³ ⁴ Peel, 2011 , p. 29.