Technological singularity

The idea of ​​accelerating the growth of scientific knowledge for the first time can be found in the works of Friedrich Engels , who, in turn, was based on the works of Ernst Haeckel , published in 1874-1875, in which the author pointed to the acceleration of the evolution of living organisms in geological time, which can also be traced and in the development of mankind (“Anthropogeny”, or “History of human development” - “Anthropogenie”, or “Entwickelungsgeschichte des Menschen”). In the second half of the XIX century, F. Engels wrote that science moves forward in proportion to the mass of knowledge inherited by it from the previous generation. In his opinion, since its inception (XVI-XVII centuries), the development of science has increased in proportion to the square of the distance (in time) from its starting point. Similar ideas were expressed by V.I. Vernadsky , who wrote about the continuous growth of the pace of scientific creativity. According to some modern researchers, there is a " exponential law of science development ", manifested in a corresponding increase in the number of scientists, scientific organizations, publications and other indicators ^{[9] [10]} . However, it is important to note that exponential growth does not imply any singularity in the mathematical sense of this concept.

In Tribute to John von Neumann (1958), Stanislav Ulam recalls conversations with John von Neumann , in which they both drew attention to the fact that, because technological progress, which determines how we live, is constantly accelerated, it must there comes a time when people will not be able to keep up with technology - that is, it will come what mathematicians call a singularity. But this time it will not be a feature in a certain physical system, but a feature in the history of mankind.

In 1965, Irving Good described this singularity in the development of technology a little differently: that at a certain point in time, when the most powerful intelligent machine can create another machine that surpasses the capabilities of people, some kind of “ intellectual explosion ” can occur ^[11] .

A similar concept of "vertical progress" Strugatsky brothers outlined in the stories " Kid ", " Waves extinguish the wind " and other works.

Close to the concept of singularity are the ideas of Stanislav Lem about the probable evolution of computers. In the most extreme form, the evolution of computers is described in the essay “Golem XIV. Lecture XLIII. About myself".

The term “ singularity ” is borrowed from mathematicians and astrophysicists who use it in describing cosmic black holes and in some theories of the beginning of the universe - a point with an infinitely large density and temperature and an infinitely small volume. A mathematical singularity ( singularity ) is a point of a function, the value of which tends to infinity , or other similar “interesting” points — features of a function.

In this context, the term “singularity” was used for the first time in the middle of the 20th century by John von Neumann , referring to the mathematical, rather than astrophysical understanding of this word - the point beyond which extrapolation begins to give meaningless results ( diverges ). Vernor Vinge writes about this, to whom this term is usually attributed ^[12] . Raymond Kurzweil is actively involved in the scientific substantiation of the onset of singularity.

One of the fundamental open questions about singularity are questions about its existence, the time of occurrence and the rate of growth of technological changes. The time it began to suggest, extrapolating some trends in technological development.

Applying the scientific approach, we note, in the natural sciences, it is typical that processes characterized by exponential acceleration at their initial stages go into the saturation phase. This clearly allows us to realize that if, during a certain time interval, an increase with acceleration is observed, this does not mean the endless continuation of this process. On the contrary, in many cases this means a speedy exit to the plateau. The processes occurring in natural science allow us not to put forward the assumption that the observed picture of the acceleration of scientific and technological progress, after some time (in physical processes, as a rule, short) will change to a deceleration and a complete stop? Possible mechanisms for slowing down the acceleration of the development of infocommunications in general are seen both in the adaptation capabilities of the person himself and in the approaching planning horizons. At the same time, despite the possible cessation / attenuation of accelerated progress in science and technology in the foreseeable future, progress itself, and as a result, social transformations, will not stop or even slow down - it will continue with the achieved (possibly enormous) speed that has become constant ^{[13 ]} .

A number of scientists (among the most famous Russian, for example, A. V. Korotayev , one of the founders of the cliodynamics , and the biologist A. V. Markov ), criticize this concept, arguing that there will not be an explicit singularity point with a sharp crisis. They argue that development is proceeding along an S-shaped (logistic) curve , and from the beginning of the 1970s braking has begun, that is, the World-System “point of singularity” has already passed during the modernization phase transition ^[14] ; in this case, the singularity point here means such a point on the development chart at which the speed is maximum (middle of the S-shaped curve) ^[15] .

In his article ^[16] , Korotaev considers and evaluates the notion of singularity in various fields (economic, technological, cultural, etc.). Since the hyperbole goes into infinity in a finite period of time, it is possible to calculate the moment of aggravation, in which a certain indicator of development takes on an infinite value. In real processes, never going to infinity is observed, but instead, the system undergoes a qualitative transformation ( phase transition ) before reaching the singularity point. Using the example of the economic development curve, which is already in the aggravation mode, Korotaev illustrates the nature of the movement of other hyperbolic curves in which singularity is expected. In his example, he proceeds from the assumption that the economy is closely connected with demography, and this dependence mainly determines the nature of the movement of the economic curve ^[17] .

Technological singularity as a consequence of the development of nanotechnology is considered in the 2007 report of the Commission on Economic Policy of the US Congress ^[18] . According to some opinions, adhering to the possibility of singularity, it should occur around 2030. If you extrapolate Moore's law, it turns out that at about the same time, the computing power of computers is compared to the human brain. Proponents of the theory of technological singularity believe that if a fundamentally different from human mind ( postman ) arises, the further fate of civilization cannot be predicted based on human logic.

In addition to the stories of Vernor Vinge, singularity is the central theme of the works of some other science fiction authors. Among them are William Gibson , Charles Stross , Karl Schroeder, Yuri Nikitin , Greg Egan , David Brin , Ian Banks , Neal Stevenson , Tony Ballantyne, Bruce Sterling , Dan Simmons , Damien Broderick, Frederick Brown , Ytzer Yek, Yern Simans, Dan Simmons , Damien Broderick, Frederick Brown , Yachting Yose, Yama Simmons , Damien Broderick, Frederica Brown Doctorow , Peter Watts . Ken McLeod, in his 1998 novel The Cassini Division ^{[19] [20]} ( The Cassini Division ), defines the singularity as “ascension for nerds ”.

Theme singularity is often found in cyberpunk novels. For example, the recursively self-improving artificial intelligence "Winter Silence" in William Gibson's novel " Neuromant ". The novel Metamorphoses of Higher Intelligence , published in 1994 on the Kuro5hin website, is dedicated to life after a singularity launched by artificial intelligence. A more dystopian view of singularity in Harlan Ellison ’s short story “ I have no mouth, but I have to shout ” ( I Have No Mouth, and I Must Scream ). Other examples of the anti-utopian view include Charles Strauss’s Axlerando and Warren Ellis’s ongoing “ newuniversal ” comic strip. In James Milne's work “All Dolls” ( eng. Puppets All ) the emotional and moral problems of the singularity are affected. The problem of Contact in the era of technological singularity is discussed in the novel by Stanislav Lem “ Fiasco ” (1986), “ False Blindness ” by Peter Watts, and “Fuzzy Fragmentation” by Paul Di Filippo . The problem of technological singularity is also relevant in the East. A vivid example of this is the manga about the merger and almost limitless human consciousness and artificial intelligence “ Ghost In The Shell ”.

In film, an example of a film entirely devoted to technological singularity and the reaction of mankind to it is “ Excellence ”.

• Omega Point
• Fifth generation computers
• Moore's Law
• Transhumanism
• Transman
• The virtual reality
• Augmented Reality
• Robot
• Artificial Intelligence
• Nanotechnology
• Exacerbated Mode

• Kurzweil R. The Singularity Is Near. NY: Viking, 2005.
• Korotaev A.V. , Komarova N.L., Khalturina D.A. Laws of history. Century cycles and millennial trends. Demographics, economy, war. 2nd ed. M .: URSS , 2007. p. 7-47.
• Panov A. D. Dyakonov's Singularity // History and Mathematics: Problems of periodization of historical macroprocesses . M .: KomKniga, 2006. p. 31-37.
• Markov A.V. , Korotaev A.V. Hyperbolic Growth in Living Nature and Society . M .: URSS, 2009. 200 p.

• Technological singularity
• Technological singularity as the near future of mankind
• KOROTAEV A. V. Is the singularity near?
• The Coming Technological Singularity, 1993 by Vernor Vinge
• Vernor Vinge. Technological Singularity
• Michael Deering. Dawn of Singularity
• What is a singularity?
• Discussion on technological singularity on Radio Liberty 2.11.08
• Alexander Boldachev . Finita la story. Political, cultural and economic singularity as an absolute crisis of civilization - an optimistic look into the future