Forensic Forecasting

M.P. Kleimenov names the following objects of criminological forecasting:

• The state and indicators of crime in a certain historical period, its individual varieties (for example, organized crime ).
• Trends, the most likely ways of developing crime and related phenomena.
• Trends in the personality of the offender , its socio-demographic, socio-role and criminal law characteristics.
• Victimological trends: the emergence and disappearance of new categories of persons with increased victimization , the social characteristics of victims of crime.
• Trends in the development of criminological science , identifying the most promising areas of research.
• Criminal behavior of an individual (individual criminological forecasting).

M.P. Kleimenov classifies the types of criminological forecasting on the following grounds: by the purpose of forecasting, by the tasks of forecasts, by the timing, by scale, by purpose, by the complexity of the object, by the subject of forecasting.

For the purpose of forecasting stands out:

• Search forecasting, based on current crime trends and aimed at establishing its future state while maintaining these trends.
• Normative forecasting aimed at establishing the possibility of bringing crime into a certain state at a certain future moment and developing the necessary measures to combat it.

According to the tasks of forecasts, operational (aimed at solving current problems), tactical and strategic forecasting are distinguished.

By terms , short-term (up to 1 year), medium-term (1–5 years), long-term (5–10 years) and long-term forecasting (10–15 years) are distinguished.

In terms of scale , local (at the level of a limited territory or an individual department), regional and global forecasting are distinguished.

By designation , general (relating to all types of crime and the subjects of combating it), special (relating to a particular type of crime or a separate body) and individual (aimed at a specific object) forecasting are allocated.

By the complexity of the object of foresight, singular (single- object ), multiplet (factor), system and metasystem (relating to the designed system) forecasting are distinguished.

The subject is allocated official (performed by entities entrusted with the corresponding official duty) and unofficial forecasting.

When forecasting, methods of document analysis, survey, expert estimates, experiment and quasi-experiment , extrapolation , other statistical methods, mathematical modeling method are used.

Forecasting Methods:

1. Extrapolation - the study of the history of the predicted object (in this case, the crime) and the transfer of the laws of its development in the past and present for the future.

2. Expert assessments - consist in summarizing the opinions of specialists based on their professional skill of intuition, scientific and practical experience in the fight against crime.

3. Modeling - the study of the characteristics of the relationships and patterns of any phenomenon, process and system based on the replacement of their conditional samples or models.

The result of forecasting is a scenario for the development of criminological situation. As a rule, several possible scenarios are considered:

• A scenario reflecting the existing trends in the development of phenomena, not taking into account the possible directed impact on them in the future.
• A scenario that provides the best possible development of events under the action of the proposed measures.
• The scenario providing the worst possible scenario.

• Crime prevention
• Fulfillment of the forecast - a modern ( 2011 ) reporting indicator of the Russian police (previously there was a percentage of detection ).

• Criminology: Textbook for universities / Under total. ed. A. I. Dolgovoy . 3rd ed., Revised. and add. M., 2007. S. 380-415. ISBN 5-89123-931-0 . The author of the chapter is A. I. Dolgova.